00z GFS 12/2
Massive Cold coming down + TN Winter storm!
Massive Cold coming down + TN Winter storm!
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Pattern Winter 2020/2021 Model Archive
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
00z Euro 12/3
Some flurries:
Some flurries:
Wintry - December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
If we could have shoved that +PNA back west where it belongs this could have been a really big deal. It really is a shame. Good looking wave timing honestly.
southernwx.com
00z Canadian 12/3
Some flurries
Some flurries
Wintry - December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
If we could have shoved that +PNA back west where it belongs this could have been a really big deal. It really is a shame. Good looking wave timing honestly.
southernwx.com
00z EPS Control 12/3
Textbook CAD, but the EPS doesn't agree
Textbook CAD, but the EPS doesn't agree
00z ICON 12/4
Similar to February 2020
Similar to February 2020
00z GFS 12/4
06z GFS 12/4
Wintry - December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
UK and euro agreeing with each other on the option of suck is not what you want to see here
southernwx.com
06z GFS 12/4
Wintry - December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
The new hrrr looks good already at H5 (sad we’re having to use this to still try to compare H5 because modes are so bad right now) Vorticity:
southernwx.com
00z Euro 12/4
VA storm
06z EPS and NAM
12z NAM
Fairly Good snow in NC:
VA storm
Wintry - December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
Might be an interesting drive back down the mountain Monday afternoon
southernwx.com
Wintry - December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
The new hrrr looks good already at H5 (sad we’re having to use this to still try to compare H5 because modes are so bad right now) Vorticity:
southernwx.com
Fairly Good snow in NC:
Wintry - December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
Gfs looks a little worse but not nothing crazy badBrutal run. At least there was precip tho Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
southernwx.com
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12z GFS 12/4
Bogus ZR/IP totals
Bogus ZR/IP totals
12z Euro 12/8
Nice snow from a ULL
Nice snow from a ULL
Ostrich December
Lack of character folks move on let’s talk weather and those who want a head start on panic buying will have it before the rest. It’s a pandemic and the humane thing to do is to teach preparedness and have a discussion. The humane thing to do would be put down any birds that appear to be rabid!
southernwx.com
18z GFS 12/8
Big dog GFS member!!
Big dog GFS member!!
00z Euro 12/9
Snow in NC, and in the mid-south!
Snow in NC, and in the mid-south!
Ostrich December
It’s winter storm watch criteria setup for mtns and foothills. But piedmont could see a splattering of snow/sleet to ice too. ESP Winston Salem region
southernwx.com
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12z CMC 12/9
Pretty big dog mixed precip storm!
Pretty big dog mixed precip storm!
Ostrich December
Your daily long range Christmas forecast brought to you by the GEFS: heat miser has been fought back today by a cold miser counterpunch thanks to a +PNA popping up and a stubborn-NAO. Stay tuned!⛄️
southernwx.com
18z GFS 12/12
Absolutely bananas fantasy storm! If only it ran a few more hours!
Textbook strong +PNA Rex Block, TPV in the SE
Absolutely bananas fantasy storm! If only it ran a few more hours!
Textbook strong +PNA Rex Block, TPV in the SE
baroowoofr
Member
Some of y'all might like EPS member 47, lol:
18z GFS 12/15 (1/2)
Mixed bag Christmas present!
Cold, but massive warm nose!
Mixed bag Christmas present!
Cold, but massive warm nose!
18z GFS 12/15 (2/2)
Marginal coastal.
Marginal coastal.
12z CMC 12/21
Congrats @Brent
Congrats @Brent
Ostrich December
I mean he's like 100 feet higher than Atl. Not sure that's enough to make a 20" difference. Yeah but there's a lot of mountains north of him that causes downdrafts ect
southernwx.com
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Insane euro ice storm
00z euro, 12/22
00z euro, 12/22
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Really don't need a CAD high to the north if the sfc dews are in the 10s and temps are already in the mid 20s before the event starts, already plenty of cold/dry air to work w/
12z Euro 12/24
Monster Southern Slider, TN event!
Monster Southern Slider, TN event!
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
southernwx.com
00z GFS 12/25
Merry Christmas! From the 00z GFS!
Merry Christmas! From the 00z GFS!
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
I mean it literally looks the exact same.... get this crap outta here.
southernwx.com
00z 12/25 GEFS LR Control
Big dog board wide storm!
Big dog board wide storm!
Misc - 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread
Is the pattern really great if it doesn't snow???
southernwx.com
00z GFS 12/26
NC Snow!
NC Snow!
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
Shaping up to be a special year for TN imo. Mountain areas as well. These cold frontal boundaries that push through with just a smidge of ridging down the east coast is their bread and butter. Western areas have been favored over the past several years. That will change eventually. Hoping for...
southernwx.com
00z EPS 1/2
Snow mean inching towards the two-inch mark.
Snow mean inching towards the two-inch mark.
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
The more anomalous the pattern, the quicker it should breakdown? Kind of like a Cat 5 hurricane, hard to keep it going for a long time , with that intensity? ? The southeast ridge is quite honestly highly anomalous and the last decade it was basically our average pattern ? bout time we get away...
southernwx.com
06z GFS 1/2
@metwannabe special
@metwannabe special
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
The more anomalous the pattern, the quicker it should breakdown? Kind of like a Cat 5 hurricane, hard to keep it going for a long time , with that intensity? ? The southeast ridge is quite honestly highly anomalous and the last decade it was basically our average pattern ? bout time we get away...
southernwx.com
12z Euro 1/2
Flurries mix in
Flurries mix in
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
Just like those 60 degree dewpoints in December right? Yeap you got it. SSTs still above normal. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
southernwx.com
00z GFS 1/3
A bit of an inland cutter across the SE.
A bit of an inland cutter across the SE.
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
Lol holy crap look where the 0C 850 line is south of I-40 already on the GEFS beyond 300 hr. I'm pushing all my chips to the center of the table
southernwx.com
12z GFS 1/3
Big dog paste bomb! The GFS is on board!
Ensembles: Huge Increase!
Big dog paste bomb! The GFS is on board!
Ensembles: Huge Increase!
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
The pattern around the 20th can definitely support a storm like this Yeah, the 6z gfs gives me about 20” of digital snow over the next two weeks. I’m hoping for one good snow of at least 4” that covers up every blade of grass. Obviously, this is a favorable pattern with a number of...
southernwx.com
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12z Euro 1/3
Another Big dog! Alignment!
Another Storm for the Western SE. (2/2)
Ensembles:
Another Big dog! Alignment!
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
This thread has the right name be glad when this crap fest month is over What ? ? L
southernwx.com
Another Storm for the Western SE. (2/2)
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
This thread has the right name be glad when this crap fest month is over What ? ? L
southernwx.com
Ensembles:
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
Ok my bad. Let's do a retake: I really like how the lowering of heights out west create a nice moist SW flow, while the all-out arctic attack invades from the north. As usual, it will have no trouble spilling over the mountains, thanks to the strong, stationary 50/50 low that will set up and...
southernwx.com
12z Euro 1/4 (1/2)
EPS:
Second storm! (2/2)
Wintry - January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
southernwx.com
EPS:
Second storm! (2/2)
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
I didnt know 1" was considered a smacking ? Having driven thru several of these bands yesterday in the northern Piedmont I’d consider it a smacking. Probably the highest snow rates I’ve ever seen around here just only lasted 15 mins. Yanceyville and Roxboro had legit 40 dBz+ snow, you blinked...
southernwx.com
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12z Euro 1/4
First System looks okay (1/2)
The second system (2/2)
Ensembles:
First System looks okay (1/2)
Wintry - January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
From the best GSP .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Monday: No significant changes in the overall thinking for the Thursday night into Friday winter storm. A strong upper low at 500 mb will likely pass just to our south Thursday evening into Friday. A leading surface...
southernwx.com
The second system (2/2)
Ensembles:
18z EPS Ensembles
January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
We all know wobbles are gonna happen just like drinking and walking a straight line
southernwx.com
00z NAM 1/5
Much of SC and North Georgia get Nam'd
Much of SC and North Georgia get Nam'd
January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
I know it’s the long range NAM but I think it’s on to something with the cooler 925s, but I bet the warm nose becomes a issue gradually over several runs, front/middle part of the storm imo may be sleety Well you would have to think that if anything like the frontogenesis band that the NAM just...
southernwx.com
06z GFS 1/5
Three storms! (1/3)
First system:
Second system Miller A:
Third system Big Dog @Webberweather53 already posted: (3/3)
Totals the entire run!
H5 is beautiful!
Three storms! (1/3)
First system:
Second system Miller A:
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
Well then...Days 11-16... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Montana bout to cash in! Nice looking blocking tho.
southernwx.com
Third system Big Dog @Webberweather53 already posted: (3/3)
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
Well then...Days 11-16... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Montana bout to cash in! Nice looking blocking tho.
southernwx.com
Totals the entire run!
H5 is beautiful!
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00z GFS 1/7
Small overrunning event
Small overrunning event
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
NW trend.... Do you get 2m dew points on wx bell?
southernwx.com
06z GFS 1/7
North of I-40 storm
North of I-40 storm
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
NW trend.... Do you get 2m dew points on wx bell?
southernwx.com
18z GFS 1/7
End of GFS run
End of GFS run
Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January
Welp, there goes the -NAO/ the only thing that we've had going for us of late...
southernwx.com
12z GFS 1/8
18z GFS 1/8
