Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[NCSNOW]

Clown maps show it but the soundings don't support it

By the CMC's standards, that's a big mid-level warm nose which probably means the rain-snow line will be further NW than shown.

View attachment 62310

All comes down to track. Cmc ticked north through Dolly Parton country. Even with a futher south track under ones back yard, its a tight rope but doable. 1st things 1st is locking in a track where you are north of ull, as you and others have alluded. Then your at least at the table to roll the dice on 50/50 thermals, primarly BL. Right now everyone is just trying to get a seat at that table over the next few days of runs.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC was worse because there was less confluence

 

[accu35]

If this trend continues to look good I'm chasing

 

[iGRXY]

I loved the GFS but the euro is the one you want on your side at this range. Right now it’s in line with the GFS. Let’s hope the south trend continues

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This looks off lol

 

[Webberweather53]

In general, don’t most winter storms outside the mountains in the SE feature sub-10:1 ratios, anyways? I thought I remember seeing something from the RAH WFO one time saying 8:1 was “average” for a Raleigh snowfall.

Yeah that’s the average and this storm would arguably be lower than that area wide

 

[Webberweather53]

All comes down to track. Cmc ticked north through Dolly Parton country. Even with a futher south track under ones back yard, its a tight rope but doable. 1st things 1st is locking in a track where you are north of ull, as you and others have alluded. Then your at least at the table to roll the dice on 50/50 thermals, primarly BL. Right now everyone is just trying to get a seat at that table over the next few days of runs.

Not exactly a fan of not having cold air in place already and being forced to wet bulb to freezing in a strong warm advection regime. Doesn’t exactly spell a 50/50 dice roll on thermals, more like 80-20 90-10 no snow-snow.

 

[RVD]

I mentioned considering the parallel GFS (i.e. v16) earlier today... the model runs about 6 hrs behind currently, but its 18z is showing a more reasonable solution than the current GFSv15 IMO. For starters, the v16 is slower (a nod to the current GFSv15's progressive bias) and also further north with the 850mb low track. As a result, WAA dominates for a good deal of the storm. But I'm still impressed by the strength and position of the 850 low after a coastal transfer occurs, which helps wrap in sub-freezing air (at the expense of some forcing for ascent), and the slower timing of the v16 equates to this happening overnight vs. during the day like the v15. As a result surface temps are a bit colder (33 instead of 35 lmao), and the back-end of precip appears to be a mix across the northern tier of counties.

I wouldn't hold your breath on much in the way of accumulations more than an inch or so, given what models are currently showing.

 

[Webberweather53]

I really don’t think this is going to amount to much outside the mountains and far NW Piedmont perhaps. We won’t have to wait too long for a favorable look after this for most everyone on the board perhaps down to I 20

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[RVD]

Upon closer inspection, the GFSv16's extension of precip back westward even as cold air filters in appears to be due to a pretty nutty evolution on 500 hPa. A rogue N/S piece dives practically SSW to phase with our upper level low, with its approach likely providing the necessary forcing for ascent to maintain some precip as 850s cool. Not gonna outright say this is wrong, but no other model shows this N/S wave sufficiently strong or far enough SW for this interaction to happen. So it'll be an interesting test of the new GFS for sure.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Upon closer inspection, the GFSv16's extension of precip back westward even as cold air filters in appears to be due to a pretty nutty evolution on 500 hPa. A rogue N/S piece dives practically SSW to phase with our upper level low, with its approach likely providing the necessary forcing for ascent to maintain some precip as 850s cool. Not gonna outright say this is wrong, but no other model shows this N/S wave sufficiently strong or far enough SW for this interaction to happen. So it'll be an interesting test of the new GFS for sure.
View attachment 62321

Seems like models keeping popping that N/S energy every now and then

 

[RVD]

Seems like models keeping popping that N/S energy every now and then

They can be sneaky for sure, but if it's gonna take that sort of evolution to get some snow here after accounting for more WAA beforehand, I'm not gonna get my hopes up for this one. Still plenty of potential in the coming few weeks when we'll hopefully have more cold air to work with.

 

[Tarheel1]

Not with that kind of warm advection lol, basically a mountains only event on the CMC

CMC has a cold bias, so that’s no bueno

 

[TheBatman]

Euro throwing me some frozen dots. Lol

 

[TheBatman]

Hey you go my eastern friends. PBP picture by "The Batman" lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[TheBatman]

 

[TheBatman]

Even northern parts of South Carolina gets in on some mixed precipitation.