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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

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If I had to make a guess as of right now where I would see accumulating snowfall of some kind this is where I would have it and where my confidence level is right now to see it. But as Webber alluded to, that warm nose is going to have to be watched very closely, especially for the area in the purple. I'd almost feel better saying those that live west of 77 definitely have the best chance of seeing snow as they will be the furthest away from the WAA. For the upstate if we can continue the trend of the ULL passing south of I20 as a good portion of the models show right now I think the Northern upstate would likely see some flakes flying out of this (which is win in this setup) especially as the ULL pulls away.
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 62417
If I had to make a guess as of right now where I would see accumulating snowfall of some kind this is where I would have it and where my confidence level is right now to see it. But as Webber alluded to, that warm nose is going to have to be watched very closely, especially for the area in the purple. I'd almost feel better saying those that live west of 77 definitely have the best chance of seeing snow as they will be the furthest away from the WAA. For the upstate if we can continue the trend of the ULL passing south of I20 as a good portion of the models show right now I think the Northern upstate would likely see some flakes flying out of this (which is win in this setup) especially as the ULL pulls away.
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Definitely think areas west of 77/north of 40 in NC have the best shot
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 62417
If I had to make a guess as of right now where I would see accumulating snowfall of some kind this is where I would have it and where my confidence level is right now to see it. But as Webber alluded to, that warm nose is going to have to be watched very closely, especially for the area in the purple. I'd almost feel better saying those that live west of 77 definitely have the best chance of seeing snow as they will be the furthest away from the WAA. For the upstate if we can continue the trend of the ULL passing south of I20 as a good portion of the models show right now I think the Northern upstate would likely see some flakes flying out of this (which is win in this setup) especially as the ULL pulls away.
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No way any of the upstate and northern GA has that high a chance of snow IMHO. At best I’d put the very tip of the upstate around around 20%, and get rid of the snow in north GA. You guys have to limit your expectations.
 
Ollie Williams said:
No way any of the upstate and northern GA has that high a chance of snow IMHO. At best I’d put the very tip of the upstate around around 20%, and get rid of the snow in north GA. You guys have to limit your expectations.
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I think people in the Northeast Georgia mountains can see snow tbh.
 
Ollie Williams said:
No way any of the upstate and northern GA has that high a chance of snow IMHO. At best I’d put the very tip of the upstate around around 20%, and get rid of the snow in north GA. You guys have to limit your expectations.
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As of model runs now, the ULL is in a favorable position for us to see some snow falling. Even GSP is hinting at it now and the best opportunity tis from the backend as the ULL pulls away. The upstate definitely has an opportunity to see snow falling. Doesn't mean it'll be much at all but snow falling is a possibility right now. But even I have it very low right now. 20-30% really isn't much in the way of confidence
 
iGRXY said:
As of model runs now, the ULL is in a favorable position for us to see some snow falling. Even GSP is hinting at it now and the best opportunity tis from the backend as the ULL pulls away. The upstate definitely has an opportunity to see snow falling. Doesn't mean it'll be much at all but snow falling is a possibility right now. But even I have it very low right now. 20-30% really isn't much in the way of confidence
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I know I had a similar discussion with you with the last system, but in an incredibly marginal setup, where GSP is on the line, I’d bet it doesn’t work out, same goes for CLT and RDU.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If I was to go wit something per the models, this is what I got (chances of accum snow) I think areas NW of I-40/west of 77 into VA stand the best shot at some solid snow View attachment 62422
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Ur strip from roan to beech looks good snow maps are impossible to predict up this way lots of microclimates.
 
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Moments ago from Chris justice


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Myfrotho704_ said:
If I was to go wit something per the models, this is what I got (chances of accum snow) I think areas NW of I-40/west of 77 into VA stand the best shot at some solid snow View attachment 62422
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I would extend the 10% band (or create a separate polygon for the northern coastal plan into SE Va. Some of the models show this potential along with what RAH mentioned.
 
FallsLake said:
I would extend the 10% band (or create a separate polygon for the northern coastal plan into SE Va. Some of the models show this potential along with what RAH mentioned.
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Your right, might add some stuff later if I see more consistency with that, like I said tho I think tho only problem would be, it’s coming thru peak heating with marginal sfc temps 4D8E37FC-3BB4-4D08-BD24-600C3511D2FF.jpeg
 
Definitely would feel more comfortable with a surface low track like 200 miles S and E of where it currently is. It’s a good look for the mountains, though.
 
superjames1992 said:
Definitely would feel more comfortable with a surface low track like 200 miles S and E of where it currently is. It’s a good look for the mountains, though.
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Yeah honestly I think for any hope at accumulating snow, it would be on the backside of the system ith CAA aloft/deformation zone sets up
 
Just curious. What is the southern extent of the upstate ? Are Greenwood and Newberry in the upstate ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Your right, might add some stuff later if I see more consistency with that, like I said tho I think tho only problem would be, it’s coming thru peak heating with marginal sfc temps View attachment 62423
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I think you're close but that elevation needs to be considered more for the areas in red as opposed to their Piedmont Counterpart. A lot of people forget that even Hendersonville has a higher elevation than Asheville, Sylva or Marshall. I think those areas will do good here.



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