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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

BlueRidgeFolklore said:
I think you're close but that elevation needs to be considered more for the areas in red as opposed to their Piedmont Counterpart. A lot of people forget that even Hendersonville has a higher elevation than Asheville, Sylva or Marshall. I think those areas will do good here.



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Asheville and Hendersonville are essentially at the same elevation, both around 2100' although im sure the elevation varies some.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Just curious. What is the southern extent of the upstate ? Are Greenwood and Newberry in the upstate ?
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Northern Upstate is Oconee, Pickens, Greenville (more north of Simpsonville), Spartanburg (Woodruff north), Cherokee county and Gaffney. Central upstate is Anderson, southern Spartanburg and Greenville counties, Laurens, and Union. Southern upstate is Abbeville, Greenwood, and Newberry. Western upstate is Greenville county to the west and west of I26 once you get into Laurens County, eastern upstate is Spartanburg county towards the east and east of I26 in Laurens.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Asheville and Hendersonville are essentially at the same elevation, both around 2100' although im sure the elevation varies some.
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Hendersonville sits higher than Asheville. Nothing I said wasn't factual.

Hendersonville: 2152'
Asheville: 2134'
Sylva: 2,036′

Hendersonville sometimes get's forgotten in regards to elevation because of it's lack of proximity to some of the higher mountains in NC (Smokies for Sylva, Black Mountains for Asheville) but it does in fact sit higher.
 
iGRXY said:
Northern Upstate is Oconee, Pickens, Greenville (more north of Simpsonville), Spartanburg (Woodruff north), Cherokee county and Gaffney. Central upstate is Anderson, southern Spartanburg and Greenville counties, Laurens, and Union. Southern upstate is Abbeville, Greenwood, and Newberry. Western upstate is Greenville county to the west and west of I26 once you get into Laurens County, eastern upstate is Spartanburg county towards the east and east of I26 in Laurens.
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Is Rock Hill in the upstate ?
 
BlueRidgeFolklore said:
Hendersonville sits higher than Asheville. Nothing I said wasn't factual.

Hendersonville: 2152'
Asheville: 2134'
Sylva: 2,036′

Hendersonville sometimes get's forgotten in regards to elevation because of it's lack of proximity to some of the higher mountains in NC (Smokies for Sylva, Black Mountains for Asheville) but it does in fact sit higher.
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Thanks for confirming that Asheville and Hendersonville are essentially the same elevation.
 
BlueRidgeFolklore said:
Hendersonville sits higher than Asheville. Nothing I said wasn't factual.

Hendersonville: 2152'
Asheville: 2134'
Sylva: 2,036′

Hendersonville sometimes get's forgotten in regards to elevation because of it's lack of proximity to some of the higher mountains in NC (Smokies for Sylva, Black Mountains for Asheville) but it does in fact sit higher.
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A lot of people also do not realize that the French Broad River actually flows North through the mountains of NC. Where as the FB River Valley in it's headwaters in Transylvania and Henderson is a relatively flat plateau, it is actually higher in elevation than it's Madison County river counterpart and all their beautiful Canyons and Peaks that if flows through. Quite the illusion.
 
BlueRidgeFolklore said:
I think you're close but that elevation needs to be considered more for the areas in red as opposed to their Piedmont Counterpart. A lot of people forget that even Hendersonville has a higher elevation than Asheville, Sylva or Marshall. I think those areas will do good here.



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Upslope helps out that area for sure. The highest totals from this storm very well could be from those areas transylvania and Henderson countys.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Thanks for confirming that Asheville and Hendersonville are essentially the same elevation.
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That's funny battle to fight and lose, especially to someone who lives here, but carry on with the banter if you so choose. Point being, the elevation of the Southern Mountains is much higher than the Piedmont areas of the same shade, and I feel are better situated for better snow chances. The models tend to agree.
 
Nice shift from 6z to 12z
 

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Looks good north of 85 and western nc even eastern nc


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These soundings still make me uneasy, but you lose the intense SW flow in them as you get towards the more backside part of the system 914A6294-B08A-4F49-BA54-FB321592B25B.png
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Yeah it wouldn't surprise me of NC stays mostly dry. Drastic shifts to the south run to run
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I wouldn’t worry about precip, I’d expect it to be heavier considering that usually with more WAA (warm nose), there’s more frotogenesis (heavy precip bands). Thermals are the main issue.
 
The cold aloft isn't the most impressive thing you have ever seen but there's enough to get the job done especially with it trending slightly colder. The Track of the ULL is the biggest reason I am extremely cautiously optimistic. The track takes it 30 - 40 miles south of I20 which is a perfect track for the upstate to have a chance in this setup. Still need to see the trend of colder mid and lower levels though.
 
Rain Cold said:
Please keep the reality in the Banter thread. Thx

Seriously, yuck
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Our soundings aren't that terrible. We ride the line between snow/rain the entire event with the middle part a solid rain sounding. Given the potential for this to be a banded event someone in the right spot probably walks away with a white ground or small accumulation while the rest of us count the mangled snowflakes mixed in with the rain. I'd feel more confident if I lived in the GSO to HKY to the mountains area
 
Wow. 5 inches in Pittsboro. LOL. Evidently Mix 101.5 is getting in on the action. They said NW mountains could see some wet snow out of this.
 
Definitely got to watch the FGEN here. The 6z was pretty stout but backed off a decent amount on the 12z. One thing to note is the new GFS has precip starting in the evening where most others do not have it rolling through until after midnight and closer to 4 am. And that deform band is a beaut on the backend and over the years those always seem to roll through the I85 corridor.
 
SD said:
Our soundings aren't that terrible. We ride the line between snow/rain the entire event with the middle part a solid rain sounding. Given the potential for this to be a banded event someone in the right spot probably walks away with a white ground or small accumulation while the rest of us count the mangled snowflakes mixed in with the rain. I'd feel more confident if I lived in the GSO to HKY to the mountains area
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This event somewhat reminds me of this one (not an identical synoptic setup but from a thermal structure and potential ptype distribution). Could be a narrow zone where rates and timing meet up to produce some slushy accumulations, especially if the slower timing of some of the other guidance is correct. FWIW - winter storm warnings for this event were issued along the NC border counties and it trended way south in the last 24 hours...

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