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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

0z GFS paints 7 my County,0Z Euro paints 4.7. Zero wiggle room, Marginal event. Whens it not. Expectations in check. Not counting on,buying it yet.
 
Being able to track something is better than having nothing to track. But this (possible) event is most likely not going to provide the accumulating snows some of the models are spitting out. I wish it would, but we're having to rely on everything aligning perfectly just to get a wet snow with temps still above freezing. Can it happen --> sure (it's happed before).
I think the best outcome (at this point), is a rain/snow mix changing over to snow as the system moves out. A slushy inch or two would be a huge win (for the lucky few). **but that's just my take at this time.

Here's RAH's discussion:
Thursday night precipitation will overspread the region, with the
low reaching Charleston, SC by Friday morning. Temperatures stay
above freezing Thursday night, and have kept all precipitation rain
during this time. However, a blend of ECMWF and GFS partial
thicknesses does indicate that there could be at least a brief
period of a rain/snow mix across northern counties Friday morning
before temperatures warm enough to change all precipitation over to
rain. The 00Z models came in much colder with daytime highs on
Friday, and decided to cut highs by about 5 degrees which is less
aggressive than the 00Z models would suggest. It now seems unlikely
that the Triad will reach 40 degrees, while the Triangle should be
in the low 40s. The surface low will move offshore by Friday
evening, with wraparound precipitation continuing into Friday night.
The models have continued their trend from the 12Z guidance in
moving precipitation out to sea quicker than they did 24 hours, but
think that there will be a slight chance for snow to mix in with
rain east of Raleigh as precipitation comes to an end after midnight.
 
Nail the track. If your Back yard is lucky, gets the right track. Then go to thermals starting Wednesday,Thurs (48 hrs on in). All these clowns are 10:1 ratio. When viewing next few days outside mtns I'd use a max of 5:1, so slice in half. That's best case scenerio. This probably will end up being a trash can lid topper I40 north. Mtns, espeacilly northern Mtns look solid for a potential 6+incher. But for Triad right now the track is everything and only concern. If it pans out like its modeled currently. Then we can take the long shot and hopefully navigate the thermals hurdle. Which will be a huge battle within itself. But it's all moot with a track underneath us.

6z GFS
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6z GFSv: LOL
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Last Night 0z :
Ukie little more wound up futher south track than Euro:
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1609761626881.png

0z Euro:
1609761652681.png
Rides up over Charlotte, opens up some, Then tightens back down exits New Bern:
1609761720251.png
6z GFS
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6z New GFS
1609761865248.png
 
So since we're tracking this event, it would be nice to get our soil temps down a little more the next few days. Looking at the grid forecast leading up to this event, it looks like central NC will have highs in the upper 40s / low 50s and lows in the upper 20s / low 30s. Not sure how much that can help the current readings.

Soil temps:
aaaa.JPG
 
The trends through this morning look like a ULL track that is more south and tracking through the I20 corridor which absolutely helps those northwestern sections. Biggest thing to watch is the warm nose as well and how stout it’s going to be. The models have trended colder aloft except for the 6z GFS that had more WAA but the newer version did not. I will say the current track of this ULL has always produced the best chance at accumulating snowfall in my neck of the woods so hopefully that will continue here.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Tonight’s euro is a southern outlier in the context of its ensemble. Not buying these snow maps on very coarse gridded ensembles given the soundings we are seeing
Click to expand...
------ Webb I was almost sucked in until I read this..gee thx..No really thank you
 
Looks like the 00z Euro is all in on the backside deformation banding for the RDU east area. Anything that fell before 00z was rain. It's going to be an extremely narrow, tight rope to walk but it isn't impossible. A slushy inch or two can't be ruled out if a strong band develops on the backside of the system as CAA kicks in and the timing is after 00z.

1000-850thickness.png

euro_kuchera.png
 
The way I’m feeling about this in upstate South Carolina north of I85. Temps will be marginal I could see it turning to snow early in the morning on Friday. Accumulation that’s gonna be hard maybe a Dusting to 1 inch especially as you head up to the extreme northern parts of oconee Pickens Greenville county. Doesn’t look like a big storm for the upstate. But a good Dusting would be a win. However snow at all is still a small chance for now


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