Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[NCSNOW]

12z CMC, futher south compared to its 0z solution: Track consensus is tightening no doubt. Matter now of if /how much or little it tightens up 2/3 contour verse 1 expansive contour




The Wake County Sounding for the 6 inch part

 

[Myfrotho704_]

12z CMC, futher south compared to its 0z solution: Track consensus is tightening no doubt. Matter now of if /how much or little it tightens up 2/3 contour verse 1 expansive contour

View attachment 62494
View attachment 62497

The Wake County Sounding for the 6 inch part
View attachment 62498

It’s so close to a huge deform band even further west with that look

 

[FallsLake]

GEFS slowly trending stronger with the HP out in front of this system. having lower dewpoints initially will help with evaporative cooling, and at this point, we don't need all that much. even lower elevations west of the mountains are just a few degrees away from a marshmallow eventView attachment 62493

It would be nice if the Canadian was correct for once. It has dew points in the low 20s across a lot of NC the day before the event.

 

[KyloG]

I77 and points west in NC should be pumped.

 

[SD]

Going to be a painful few days watching each set of runs when 50-75 miles and a slight difference in strength will take a location from a cold rain to a significant snowfall. The UK inching north wasn't what I wanted to see

 

[mydoortotheworld]

I77 and points west in NC should be pumped.

View attachment 62506

Dismissed this as primarily an NC storm but trends like these are making me think N ATL may be in the game...

EDIT: And even if ATL doesn't see anything, the distance I have to drive to snow chase is becoming less and less!

 

[CaryWx]

12z CMC, futher south compared to its 0z solution: Track consensus is tightening no doubt. Matter now of if /how much or little it tightens up 2/3 contour verse 1 expansive contour

View attachment 62494
View attachment 62497

The Wake County Sounding for the 6 inch part
View attachment 62498

That's about there for Wake. 32 at that surface and just below at 850 for snow making.

 

[KyloG]

Going to be a painful few days watching each set of runs when 50-75 miles and a slight difference in strength will take a location from a cold rain to a significant snowfall. The UK inching north wasn't what I wanted to see

UK really hasn't moved much...been fairly consistent. There is surprisingly good agreement with the UK/CMC/Euro at this range.

 

[SD]

UK really hasn't moved much...been fairly consistent. There is surprisingly good agreement with the UK/CMC/Euro at this range.

View attachment 62510

I really thought it inched north at H5 vs 0z maybe I was wrong.

 

[SimeonNC]

What do the individual GEFS members look like?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What do the individual GEFS members look like?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If the ULL doesn’t wobble NE, then this might be good, but geez the trend at H85 is all you can ask for before the system

 

[Six Mile Wx]

 

[Ollie Williams]

I think that the further east the 50/50 low is, the less the low can spin north.

 

[Avalanche]

This is tough, and so contingent on timing, placement, where the def band forms, ideal surface temps, etc. Thinking about either driving to Boone/Blowing Rock or Murphy NC area. Which locality is the question...

 

[SD]

Looks like the upper low is slightly stronger probably an epic clown map incoming from HKY to RIC

 

[RBR71]

SLP looks a little more SE on the Euro, colder temps too thus far??

 

[SD]

oh my

 

[SD]

is this thing on?

 

[Chandler]

Wintry precip into upstate sc

 

[RBR71]

is this thing on?
View attachment 62531

Right, I was just about to post "where's the precip?!"

 

[SD]

500mb low is about 50 miles south of 0z on the Euro. My expectations of this run, they are rising

 

[mrdaddyman]

is this thing on?
View attachment 62531

Where is the precip, lol?!

 

[TarHeelSnow]

A dif precip look it seems on these three frames on the pivotal maps. Interesting.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Might form a sick deform band as it pivots

 

[SimeonNC]

A fricking sleet deformation band at 108 lol

 

[SD]

sleet bomb

 

[KyloG]

For people wanting hope the Euro just gave it. Snow map maybe worse than 0z but the track of the 850 low and slp looked really good.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[SD]

Where is the precip, lol?!

700mb dry slot punches in so we are sitting and waiting

 

[Ollie Williams]

I’m really not liking the trend at 850.

 

[iGRXY]

Oh boy ...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

sounding on the backside, still a mid lvl warm nose but winds switching aloft

 

[SD]

you could make a case that the precip field should be more expansive especially toward the Va border but meh so many runs left no reason to over analyze other than it actually inched south

 

[mrdaddyman]

you could make a case that the precip field should be more expansive especially toward the Va border but meh so many runs left no reason to over analyze other than it actually inched south

Yeah, give me a good track and we'll see how the cold air and precip responds.

 

[Deleted member 609]

check please

 

[RBR71]

you could make a case that the precip field should be more expansive especially toward the Va border but meh so many runs left no reason to over analyze other than it actually inched south

Right, I'll take my chances being north of the ULL and the 850 low at this stage of the game. If it was inching north we'd already stick a fork in it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sleet is gonna be a problem with this system. You can already tell, Euro shows warmer 850s but has a band of colder 925s

 

[SD]

Yeah, give me a good track and we'll see how the cold air and precip responds.

agreed the only thing that sucked about the Euro was the fact that even though it ticked southward the best 700mb was along the first layer of counties across the NC/Va border. Even if this Euro run were to verify we would likely go from rain/snow/sleet to sleet/rain then back to snow/sleet as the deformation band rotated back through

 

[SimeonNC]

Sleet is gonna be a problem with this system. You can already tell, Euro shows warmer 850s but has a band of colder 925s

I will gladly take sleet if it means I won't see cold rain lol