Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[SD]

Sleet is gonna be a problem with this system. You can already tell, Euro shows warmer 850s but has a band of colder 925s

Without looking at the Euro soundings just the maps look like its getting close to being a primarily sleet event for parts of NC. I'm not sure how deep the BL warmth is but 925s are near or below freezing for a good part of the area. If the Euro is right at 2m though it could sleet for a week and we would just be looking at puddles and some grey mulch

 

[iGRXY]

Without looking at the Euro soundings just the maps look like its getting close to being a primarily sleet event for parts of NC. I'm not sure how deep the BL warmth is but 925s are near or below freezing for a good part of the area. If the Euro is right at 2m though it could sleet for a week and we would just be looking at puddles and some grey mulch

East of 77 definitely looks like sleet will be an issue. The euro on pivotal had sleet in the upstate but the soundings supported snow. Weatherbell had snow all the way so that’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out. Brad said it would be a snow or rain setup which I’m leaning to as well but east of 77 definitely could be a sleet fest.

 

[Brick Tamland]

12z CMC, futher south compared to its 0z solution: Track consensus is tightening no doubt. Matter now of if /how much or little it tightens up 2/3 contour verse 1 expansive contour

View attachment 62494
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The Wake County Sounding for the 6 inch part
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[Myfrotho704_]

Yo the EPS/control is further south and trying to involve GA/more of SC

 

[Chandler]

 

[Brick Tamland]

The Euro is looking better, too. Interesting.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Further south

 

[sdm47]

EPS won't done yet...

 

[packfan98]

View attachment 62569

Can we get one of those cool comparisons to prev runs??? Please?

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

EPS won't done yet...

View attachment 62572

Keep in mind this map shows a ratio of 10:1 which i believe Webber said wont happen. Probably cut those totals in half

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[sdm47]

Keep in mind this map shows a ratio of 10:1 which i believe Webber said wont happen. Probably cut those totals in half

Who said this was snow at all? Simply looking at trends - better to consider this a bucket of all frozen precip.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Wow, the Euro showing that inside 5 days is huge. It looks better here than it does for the potential storm next week.

 

[superjames1992]

Sleet is gonna be a problem with this system. You can already tell, Euro shows warmer 850s but has a band of colder 925s

Is it ever not?

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Further south View attachment 62570View attachment 62571

This is getting close @ForsythSnow

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Is it ever not?

Yeah, just go towards about 700mb and your straight

 

[SD]

East of 77 definitely looks like sleet will be an issue. The euro on pivotal had sleet in the upstate but the soundings supported snow. Weatherbell had snow all the way so that’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out. Brad said it would be a snow or rain setup which I’m leaning to as well but east of 77 definitely could be a sleet fest.

Yeah it makes sense with mid level WAA kicking out in front of the system itself that areas around here would change to sleet. Really going to be interesting to see how the thermals break down as we get closer assuming the Euro is correct

 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like the Euro is definitely trending further south and east with the frozen precip.

 

[Snowfan]

This is getting close @ForsythSnow

It looks like most of it is sleet tbh.

 

[BHS1975]

Yeah it makes sense with mid level WAA kicking out in front of the system itself that areas around here would change to sleet. Really going to be interesting to see how the thermals break down as we get closer assuming the Euro is correct

NAM "sorry not sorry"


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[ForsythSnow]

It looks like most of it is sleet tbh.

I wouldn't pay too much attention to ptypes until 2 days out in close areas. As I posted with the GFS sounding trend, things can change real quick and it seems like only the 950 through surface are a problem at the moment.

 

[NCSNOW]

12z euro

 

[SimeonNC]

GSP now has a rain/snow mix-to-rain for Friday in the CLT area, interesting.

 

[SD]

NAM "sorry not sorry"


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Yeah I'm curious to see how the NAMs will handle the mid levels and fgen. Can't help but feel like there is such a high level of boom/bust here for parts of NC

 

[NCSNOW]

I have no way to get soundings on pivotal for Euro. No biggie today, but for everyones ptypes we get to Wednesday afternoon, it will be important to start zeroing in on them, watching the trends. Hopefully we can score one here for some.

 

[sdm47]

12z euro
View attachment 62576
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QPF gradient was insane (and a little suspect).

 

[iGRXY]

Per the Euro it looks like 12 hours of frozen (mostly snow) here with an inch of liquid being used on the frozen. Even at just 5:1 Ratios that is a heck of a storm total for this. Not saying we are going to get that much but ensembles and OP are now showing major accumulations in the upstate and I just don't think we can keep overlooking that now. We are seeing the ULL push towards the I20 corridor on all the models (except the CMC) so I think you're starting to see a consensus on the track. West of 77 appears to be getting better with precip and temperatures in the mid and lower levels. East of 77 is becoming a bit shaky IMO. Really wanting to see how the NAM shows our thermals as well.

 

[Stormdoc]

That whole run of the Euro just looked weird, start to finish. Doesn’t mean it was wrong, just bizarre

 

[Fountainguy97]

View attachment 62573

I like that blue color creeping west further into TN. I get burned by these low res maps because of the high peaks around my area. Looks like models are getting substantial precip west of the spine. Hoping to squeeze out all the moisture possible.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

That whole run of the Euro just looked weird, start to finish. Doesn’t mean it was wrong, just bizarre

-NAO periods are often weird looking ..blocking is very weird makes the atmosphere and weather so weird things ...

 

[Avalanche]

Just in placement only, is this similar to the Jan 2018 storm?

 

[Ollie Williams]

Just in placement only, is this similar to the Jan 2018 storm?

Just a little bit, this storm is flatter, and there obviously there was more cold air in place.

 

[iGRXY]

NAM was well south of 12z with our LP.

 

[Clem282340]

NAM was well south of 12z with our LP.

Is that good for the upstate

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Accuweather

 

[iGRXY]

Is that good for the upstate

Yes

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

NAM was well south of 12z with our LP.

It’s good for most on this board

 

[iGRXY]

WNC and Upstate had a better cold push at 925 and 850 at HR84.

 

[RBR71]

Rah NWS throwing out a very localized HWO for possible rain/snow mix for NW Piedmont early Friday.... that's good, they are very conservative and cautious with pulling trigger on wintry precip.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Rah NWS throwing out a very localized HWO for possible rain/snow mix for NW Piedmont early Friday.... that's good, they are very conservative and cautious with pulling trigger on wintry precip.

Smh GSP is bullish and already threw me the 60% rain/snow mix