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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

Stepped away from computer for a few hours, glad to come back to this! It amazes (and frustrates) me sometimes how nonlinear the sensible weather response can be to some of the underlying mechanisms in the atmosphere. I mean, this run was really just a steady continuation of the slow trend we've seen on the GFS, and yet...
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RVD said:
Stepped away from computer for a few hours, glad to come back to this! It amazes (and frustrates) me sometimes how nonlinear the sensible weather response can be to some of the underlying mechanisms in the atmosphere. I mean, this run was really just a steady continuation of the slow trend we've seen on the GFS, and yet...
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Would be very nice if we could see this on other models as well

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Man those models are looking good. I see as usual that rain snow line isn’t breaking into SC. Bummer.
 
ajr said:
We've seen much worse than this temperature profile -- it's really just the surface layer we need to worry about. Wouldn't be surprised if this system overperformed under the ULL.

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That’s easily a heavy wet snow sounding as the important 925/850/700mb layers are below freezing, that’s straight up wet snow soundings there tho, and some lift There in the DGZ
 
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Ollie Williams said:
Notice the 18z Euro continues the trend with pieces 1 and two of our storm, getting more separated. While not as separated as the GFS, definitely heading in the right direction.
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Very good to see, does make sense the euro probably would slowly trend to it rather than it doing so fast
 
Even in the upstate the boundary layer is about as thin as you can get. Spartanburg is below freezing at the 850’s and 33 degrees at the 925. You get any form of slightly moderate rates and you will have snowfall. Also remember that temperatures will be crashing quickly as the day goes on and it’s just a matter of making sure the moisture is going to be around.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The two waves didn't phase this run, but too much interaction, and wastes some of the moisture.
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Yeah even if they don't phase, it's clear even on the GFS/NAM that the northern stream piece is still tugging on that southern stream piece. The more separation the better, otherwise the southern stream begins to accelerate.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s easily a heavy wet snow sounding as the important 925/850/700mb layers are below freezing, that’s straight up wet snow soundings there tho, and some lift There in the DGZ
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Yeah, looks like a sounding that would result in 32-33F realistically at the surface, assuming decent rates. Not ideal for accumulation, but workable.
 
Here’s the sounding for KECG at hour 78.

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Enjoy the event. More to come when I’m not banned. A lot will reference the bad storms tonight to winter weather within 7 days. Watch out more to come too.
 
This is impressive -- a little more negative tilt and the NE would have been in business, right?

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This is a little better. Not sure how this will work out though.

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Wet bulb at 33°, dew point at 30°, and temp at 36°.
 
iGRXY said:
Even in the upstate the boundary layer is about as thin as you can get. Spartanburg is below freezing at the 850’s and 33 degrees at the 925. You get any form of slightly moderate rates and you will have snowfall. Also remember that temperatures will be crashing quickly as the day goes on and it’s just a matter of making sure the moisture is going to be around.
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What about Pickens county sc
 
superjames1992 said:
Yeah, looks like a sounding that would result in 32-33F realistically at the surface, assuming decent rates. Not ideal for accumulation, but workable.
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In all honesty I don’t get too concerned with surface temperatures 32-33 degrees for a daytime snowfall in December and early January. The sun angle is at its lowest of the year now. Just today I was outside in the middle of the afternoon and with full overcast and little drizzle falling, it almost had an evening twilight look.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yo @Ollie Williams i know the EPS will still probably suck but did it improve at H5 with less interaction with that first N/S piece
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Yup! I did trend in the right direction, but not enough to really get my attention.
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Slightly better run on the mean though, albeit barely
18z
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12z
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Members: Several more over central NC
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