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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

The overall evolution of the JMA weeklies sensible wx wise is close to what I discussed and talked about a couple days ago. Pattern turns to crap around the Solstice/just before Christmas. I hope we score something here soon

 
Webberweather53 said:
The overall evolution of the JMA weeklies sensible wx wise is close to what I discussed and talked about a couple days ago. Pattern turns to crap around the Solstice/just before Christmas. I hope we score something here soon

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Will be interesting to see if we sneak this in before It goes to crap salad 9DF0FFB3-12AF-4B26-AF87-BA606DAE518C.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Will be interesting to see if we sneak this in before It goes to crap salad View attachment 55399
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12z LR EPS definitely looks better than this morning's 0z, thanks primarily to more -NAO (as noted a few days ago being a key to holding off the warm pattern after mid-month). The obvious caveat being, more -NAO now could send the tropospheric polar vortex to Alaska & really flood the continent w/ mild air. If you thought we were having problems now finding enough cold air, just wait til you see what a stupid strong +EPO can do

1607024560223.png


1607024567168.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
12z LR EPS definitely looks better than this morning's 0z, thanks primarily to more -NAO (as noted a few days ago being a key to holding off the warm pattern after mid-month). The obvious caveat being, more -NAO now could send the tropospheric polar vortex to Alaska & really flood the continent w/ mild air. If you thought we were having problems now finding enough cold air, just wait til you see what a stupid strong +EPO can do

View attachment 55400


View attachment 55401
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It’s a lose lose situation, -NAO meaning TPV near AK and we have no cold air from +EPO, or we get + NAO quicker and our pattern switches to crap faster, we can’t win
 
KMA was close but to warm. Is there anyway we get colder air with this ? 4449FABE-5092-477D-AB42-F39281529FA7.png76AB4DF6-B7E1-4D99-92C5-D91A09A89EE0.png
 
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Loganelliott99 said:
Euro was torchfest at the end of the run.
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For someone learning you should read more and post less because you only post the negatives. Hour 240 euro has another cold shot for us diving in over Texas/Oklahoma. And more over the pacific north west. We always torch ahead of fronts. That’s common.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The overall evolution of the JMA weeklies sensible wx wise is close to what I discussed and talked about a couple days ago. Pattern turns to crap around the Solstice/just before Christmas. I hope we score something here soon

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Are we going to have to pray Fab Feb saves us again?
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Looks like it might not be cold enough
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Yeah it was very very close, 700s we’re cooling down but 850s were barely cooling off, wet bulbs were close, would have to get heavy rates to maybe cool the column, but I think it would have been I-40 north winning that run if it kept on going, but hey it’s the 84 hour nam which is sketchy
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah it was very very close, 700s we’re cooling down but 850s were barely cooling off, wet bulbs were close, would have to get heavy rates to maybe cool the column, but I think it would have been I-40 north winning that run if it kept on going, but hey it’s the 84 hour nam which is sketchy
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That's true. That would be the perfect timing to get precip
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah it was very very close, 700s we’re cooling down but 850s were barely cooling off, wet bulbs were close, would have to get heavy rates to maybe cool the column, but I think it would have been I-40 north winning that run if it kept on going, but hey it’s the 84 hour nam which is sketchy
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We need the DGEX right about now.
 
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