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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Not mad but not happy 
RVD
Meteorology Student
The second northern stream piece has trended weaker the past few runs, which I'm worried is related to it getting sampled more. Not a good thing.
Yeah, it trended in the wrong direction, but I don't think it was enough to really cause the waves to interact like the other models. Verbatim I'm okay, but on a larger scale, I'm devastated.
Lol, womp nothing this run.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I think the gfs had a hiccup earlier. While it was fun to look at we knew it wouldn't last. Icon has been the most consistent model so far.
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cd2play
Member
Welp; another damn ULL with no cold air around. 
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
GEFS is also crappy. Good night folks
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We're definitely gonna need enough lift here to saturate/activate the DGZ, light-very light precip isn't gonna cut it and will keep everyone liquid in such a case virtually regardless of 850-925 mb temps. Even if we had the cold air in place at the sfc to snow, if the DGZ is dry, you typically end up w/ freezing drizzle, not snow.
Like the trend with That wave in PA on cmc but the N/S energy in IL is getting weaker 
Avalanche
Member
Running short on time to iron this out. So close, yet so far away. (Hall & Oates).
What a massive shift to the GFS on the UK...
Old
New
while I think precip was to far south, glad to see it trend to the GFS
Old
New
while I think precip was to far south, glad to see it trend to the GFSAvalanche
Member
I guess we can get a SW trend afterall.
Hugely Workable vs the 12z run , sfc temps are just to warm, this trend is encouring here 
Avalanche
Member
Surface temps and lack of moisture. 850 check.
UK soundings across CLT/GSO/WNC reveal if you could get heavy enough precip, you could get snow, and DGZs look good 
Jeremy Camp
Member
Clem282340
Member
What about the upstate
Warmer over the upstate although the very NW part is cold enough
Little improvement, but euro is kinda getting by itself here with this solution to hold back that wave over IL 
Clem282340
Member
You talking about north of 85
More workable. 
EPS at H5 is better so far 
Not optimal
It’s at least better than 12z
Individual runs?
Give me a few weather models is so slow for some reason
End of the new hrrr was quite interesting 
Clem282340
Member
Looks like the 850s are crash
Hrrr from what I see has some pretty cold 850s compared to other models
Clem282340
Member
Yes it does. Does the hrrr have a cold bias
Don’t know yet, its a very new unknown model in the winter, but it’s done well with severe weather
Clem282340
Member
Looks like the storm is suppressed in south fl on 6z nam
Seems like some huge shifts in the modeling tonight from giving NOVA a decent hit to giving no one anything, particularly on the 00z UKMET and ECMWF.
Getting 2 steps in the right direction, getting that northern stream wave out ahead of southern stream one, and another good trend is the MA slowly losing their storm.
Precip plots and 850mb temps for 00z Tuesday. Not too bad. Most of the ones that have nice precip shields have pretty good 850 temps.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Come to papa. Cold air will be certainly lacking in my neck of the woods but I think we will have some legit QPF to play with down in Fayetteville. If we can somehow get moderate to heavy rates even down here could change to snow.