Well, we seem to be trending the right way with the latter at least
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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
High pressure to the NW.
Of course, I don't doubt that things are trending better, but I think it is important to make clear we are searching for more "missing puzzle pieces" this time around.
Member 11 is basically a best case scenario 
It is becoming clear to me this will not be a precip issue for the Carolinas. As usual, temps will be the problem. I expect to see more NW trends with the precip shield going forward. As far as cold air, I suspect we need to see more of a neutral tilt to the trough, which will depend on the energy and how to moves and interacts with the waves. This will definitely be rate dependent, and will need more lift for better rates.
I remember that snow being super powdery. We didn’t get a ton here but you couldn’t even play in it.
Obv just one member on one run but it is at least marginally encouraging to see that scenario depicted. Maybe it'll get ripped away by 0z but still
lol we suck gefs is stuck
@Ollie Williams like you've been saying, temps are much much bigger issue. This is a 78hr 12k NAM map for 0z 1/17/18 as snow would be falling in AL/TN/MS, bits of GA. Gonna need a lot of work for Mon night's setup
i know I’ve said this quite a bit, but Nighttime would really help us out with this type of setup, sorta like feb 16-17 2015 if I’m not mistaken
Close at 85/7/5 use the dynamics to increase Precip rates and banding. Use the intense rates of melting snow to cool the column from the top down. If that doesn't work hope for close enough temps that any caa on the back can flip rain to snow
RVD
Meteorology Student
So obviously a stronger low pressure is going to drive some WAA, but if it's any consolation I think our cold air woes this run have more to do with the strength of the northern stream piece. In terms of its structure, things improved a lot; there are almost two different entities in the northern stream with this setup (what a mess lol), and they were preventing each other from tilting favorably in previous runs. The lagging piece shifted way NE on this run, but look at how the leading piece weakened:
It's cutoff now and displaced more SW, which is good, but the higher heights, all else constant, implies a weaker pouch of cold air. That's exactly what happened (note it's the air around IN/KY that eventually tracks over NC):
So if we can somehow:
a) get that northern stream to maintain a similar orientation/structure, but be stronger; while
b) not changing much about or slowing down/strengthening the southern stream a tad (more precip). Slow-down would also time things better overnight.
Maybe we can thread the needle with this setup. I'm worried that a stronger northern stream at this angle, though, will shear out the southern piece. So it may be an impossible ask for both. We'll see I guess.
Otherwise we'll be dependent on heavier precip and some "rates will overcome" garbage. Though I will say that (for MBY) I feel like this is... not awful:
Avalanche
Member
What will the dews be at onset?
Avalanche
Member
No dry feed.
Yep. Amazing this wouldn't even be thread worthy even in bad years. Shows just how bad the last 2 years have been.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I disagree. I think this system has potential
Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
It's not cold enough!!!!
Yeah, but potential doesn't cut it for threads around here. Maybe within 24 hours and we have this look, but we usually don't get involved with threads that barely have any model snow.