Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

[Webberweather53]

Wasn’t there a suprise snow that produced especially for Burgaw NC/other places in ENC in March 2019 that came out of nowhere on modeling ?

Yes this one (which I also ended up chasing and providing video of it on my twitter + here):

I have all of these maps I made in real time stored on my website and really do my best to keep em up to date. This particular storm a lot of those obs in Robeson and Columbus County are ground truth from myself when I drove down from Fayetteville to Whiteville. 2” reports were widespread in Onslow County

http://www.webberweather.com/2010s-winter-storms-nc.html

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Boo, can’t even with ULT

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Ban me

 

[superjames1992]

View attachment 55795

Yep! Also, Christmas/Boxing Day 2010 more recently! “Murphy to Manteo” is the saying!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The gefs actually improved ?
06z
12z

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

The gefs actually improved ?
06z View attachment 55814
12z View attachment 55812View attachment 55811View attachment 55813

How did that happen lol

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

[superjames1992]

How did that happen lol

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Well, it literally couldn’t get any worse than 0”, I suppose. It’s still pretty bleak.

 

[TarHeelSnow]

The gefs actually improved ?
06z View attachment 55814
12z View attachment 55812View attachment 55811View attachment 55813

Looks like the average goes up because of one hit (for piedmont NC anyway). So it goes.

 

[Chazwin]

February 12-13 2010 basically did that

View attachment 55796

This storm was only supposed to bring precip to the southeast corner of the state only 36 hours before it started.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like the average goes up because of one hit (for piedmont NC anyway). So it goes.

Yeah and a few have flurries with the ULT, if we mange to get that energy with the upper level trough move thru at night, then they could have some snow, but it’s unlikely

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is literally so close !!!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Damn only if precip was farther north where wet bulb temps are supportive of snow

 

[Mitch West]

Yes this one (which I also ended up chasing and providing video of it on my twitter + here):

I have all of these maps I made in real time stored on my website and really do my best to keep em up to date. This particular storm a lot of those obs in Robeson and Columbus County are ground truth from myself when I drove down from Fayetteville to Whiteville. 2” reports were widespread in Onslow County

http://www.webberweather.com/2010s-winter-storms-nc.html

View attachment 55805

Eric, your site is awesome. Hopefully you can get some time in the future to do past South Carolina storms. There isn’t a ton of info out there for our state.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro has basically lost it for VA now....

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[superjames1992]

Euro has basically lost it for VA now....

We’re taking everyone down with us on this one!

 

[Avalanche]

Look out Bermuda

 

[Avalanche]

Well. We know now at least 850 can still make it in Carolina. Silver lining.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Well. We know now at least 850 can still make it in Carolina. Silver lining.

Of course models trend cooler just because no precip lol

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM is gonna be good at 18z

 

[accu35]

Glad I saved my gas

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

NAM is gonna be good at 18z

What makes you think that

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

What makes you think that

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Happy hour

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Happy hour

Lol like the gfs yesterday at 18z

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

[Brick Tamland]

I guess we need the northwest trend now. Not saying it will happen this time, but this seems to be a pattern with the models the last few years. They show a potential storm, then the precip goes further south and east, only to come back northwest the closer we get.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Happy hour

Yep, and it’s not like the nam was terrible either, just shift the precip 30-50 miles NW and you have snow breaking out (rates help tremendously)

 

[Webberweather53]

Snowing all the way down to the Mexico border with this system, I’ll feel shafted if we don’t at least eek out a few flurries somewhere in the Carolinas.

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol I was wondering why no one posted the 12z EPS yet, it must have sucked & it did.







Charlotte precip shield is up in full force!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol I was wondering why no one posted the 12z EPS yet, it must have sucked & it did.

View attachment 55839





Charlotte precip shield is up in full force!

View attachment 55841

I honestly completely forgot about it, and I’m glad I did

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Snowing all the way down to the Mexico border with this system, I’ll feel shafted if we don’t at least eek out a few flurries somewhere in the Carolinas.

View attachment 55835

View attachment 55838

Alpine is close to 5,000' in elevation. When you are far south and have elevation then it's a different story.

 

[Webberweather53]

Alpine is close to 5,000' in elevation. When you are far south and have elevation then it's a different story.

Mt Locke, TX's (south of Ft Stockton) snow climo is roughly equivalent to Greensboro, NC, it still would hurt seeing them get snow while we don't

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Dont know how good the HRRRV4 is in the more longer range but it’s a improvement with the southern wave Vs last run
12z
18

 

[RBR71]

Lol I was wondering why no one posted the 12z EPS yet, it must have sucked & it did.

View attachment 55839





Charlotte precip shield is up in full force!

View attachment 55841

Metwannabe special ??

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

At this point I am not paying attention to the euro or gfs whatsoever. They are not short range models. It's all about the nam icon hrrr ukie and eventually rap

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

[Webberweather53]

18z NAM looks a wee bit colder than 12z thus far in NC & VA prior to precip arriving.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nam is trending to less stream separation and actually getting them closer and closer, but the response has been a NW trend in the precip sheild

 

[Webberweather53]

Meaty, just way too warm

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Nam is trending to less stream separation and actually getting them closer and closer, but the response has been a NW trend in the precip sheild View attachment 55855View attachment 55856

Looks way too warm unfortunately

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah these soundings won’t cut it

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Sloppy inch or two for the mtns on 18Z NAM. Good trend on the NAM with precip.