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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

SD said:
Want to see how the 0z runs handle the wave interactions. The rgem and icon handle the northern mid atlantic energy differently than the gfs nam euro
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Hopefully they keep keeping going that way, puts more people in play, the better UL energy, the more expansive the precip sheild would be and by that time 850s are already -2 to -6 across NC, rates can take care of the rest, but ATM NE NC stands the best chance at some snowflakes
 
If your outside VA or the NC mountains and maybe NE NC, this one is probably over, however in WNC/the piedmont into SC, there may be some showers in the afternoon/evening that fire under the cold pocket aloft with maybe some small hail/graupel/snow pellets, melting layer under these cells is around 900-925 mb so it would be difficult to get snow to make it to the surface 030DBABD-F58E-4C44-B06D-598A6FDC1E26.pngA6A5F285-DF7F-40D7-8DFD-48FC91CABEB5.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If your outside VA or the NC mountains and maybe NE NC, this one is probably over, however in WNC/the piedmont into SC, there may be some showers in the afternoon/evening that fire under the cold pocket aloft with maybe some small hail/graupel/snow pellets, melting layer under these cells is around 900-925 mb so it would be difficult to get snow to make it to the surface View attachment 55938View attachment 55939
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Yeah...KCHS mentioned that H500 temps will be as low as -25C Monday Afternoon with the upper low passage which could spark graupel..
HRRR run there showing some crazy connective elements...with this new upgrade, it'll be interesting to see how this upgrade pans out...
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If your outside VA or the NC mountains and maybe NE NC, this one is probably over, however in WNC/the piedmont into SC, there may be some showers in the afternoon/evening that fire under the cold pocket aloft with maybe some small hail/graupel/snow pellets, melting layer under these cells is around 900-925 mb so it would be difficult to get snow to make it to the surface View attachment 55938View attachment 55939
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I was hoping this system would at least give most east of the mountains a few novelty flakes.
Thanks for all the PBP analysis you others do
 
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set up isn’t completely the same, but if we had more cold air at the surface, those convective in nature bands moving through parts of SC give off Feb 2013 vibes. I chased that to Rock Hill. One of the coolest smaller events that I have ever experienced. Thundersnow was awesome in that.
 
Given the freezing level around 925-900mb tomorrow, Could definitely see some graupel/snow pellets mixed with rain with these showers tomorrow, especially the stronger ones that drag down more precipitation on top of the weak Dewpoint spreads, better than nothing, right ?
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Given the freezing level around 925-900mb tomorrow, Could definitely see some graupel/snow pellets mixed with rain with these showers tomorrow, especially the stronger ones that drag down more precipitation on top of the weak Dewpoint spreads, better than nothing, right ?
View attachment 55954View attachment 55955
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At the rate we're going, this might be the highlight of the entire winter
 
I took a look at the LR GEFS for giggles, and even though there’s a SER, The trough over the north central US looks to be propagating eastward.
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Otherwise, a complex split-flow upper lvl pattern will gradually
evolve thru the near-term period. By the end of the period early
Monday, the southernmost upper low/trof will phase with a more
northern trof and move across our area. At the surface, broad and
relatively weak high pressure will linger over the Southeast for
most of today/tonight with a complex sfc low developing over the
Carolinas as the period ends early Monday. As this occurs, a broad
region of deeper moisture will spread over the CWFA from the west
and south, yet the more favorable upper-lvl forcing/support will
remain to our southeast. As for the sensible fcst, cloud cover will
gradually increase from the SW later this aftn and evening. With the
weak forcing, QPF amounts should be minimal with the bulk of it
expected during the last 6 hrs or so of the period early Monday.
Based on the latest temperature profiles, only the higher terrain is
expected to be cold enough to see any appreciable snow, with accums
less than an inch anticipated for most locations. The Foothills
could see some rain/snow mix during the last few hours of the period
as their temperatures cool, but it`s doubtful that wetbulb temps
will be cold enough to support all snow there. Otherwise, the rest
of the CWFA will just see light rain showers.
For the Piedmont, most of the guidance sources now show precip
developing in the late morning to mid-afternoon timeframe. This
appears to result initially from the dynamic forcing, but a small
amount of instability (most likely well below 100 J/kg) is expected,
owing to strong midlevel lapse rates. This could keep precip going
for a time after the shortwave axis passes. With the downsloping,
precip is expected to taper off during the morning in the foothills
and portions of the NW NC Piedmont, though a small chance remains
warranted most of the remainder of the day in the still-lower
elevations, including the I-85 corridor. Temps look likely to break
into the 50s despite cloud cover. Most if not all of this light
precip thus should be rain. However, the low levels are expected to
be pretty dry, making wet-bulb temp profiles supportive of low snow
levels--if the precip does not evaporate/sublimate entirely above the
surface. This forecaster would be willing to bet that we get at least
a few reports of flakes mixing in with light rain, especially if
precip hangs on until later in the afternoon when the CAA sets in.
It`s a tricky situation; model soundings and p-type output suggest
the rain likely will end just as low-level temps become supportive of
snow. Some decent wind gusts (perhaps 20-30 mph) could occur at high
elevations in the NW flow, but also in the vicinity of any convective
showers Monday afternoon.
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Lengthy discussion from GSP about tonight and tomorrow
 
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