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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

This should be fun, these convective showers look impressive, temperatures drop to the low 40s in these with 850s around -3 to -4, don’t think it’s cold enough for snow but could be some chunky snow pellets/graupel 8FA8F972-96F2-4DC3-B21C-31596C947DDD.jpegD5469005-8706-4450-B08C-BC1F7749F958.jpegFB7A3474-DFBF-4894-9BD9-0C2BF20A4C1C.png8A6D9FE3-7210-44E6-8559-627ACBB2F407.png
 
Let's see how long RNK keeps a chance of snow/mix in the forecast! This is the afternoon package.
Tonight
Mostly Cloudy. A Chance Of Rain And Snow After
Midnight. Little Or No Snow Accumulation. Lows In The Mid 30s.
Light And Variable Winds. Chance Of Precipitation 50 Percent.

Monday
Mostly Cloudy With Rain Likely With A Chance Of Snow In
The Morning, Then Partly Sunny With A Slight Chance Of Snow In
The Afternoon. Little Or No Snow Accumulation. Near Steady
Temperature In The Upper 30s. Light And Variable Winds, Becoming
Northwest 10 To 15 MPH With Gusts Up To 25 MPH In The Afternoon.
Chance Of Precipitation 70 Percent.

Monday Night
Mostly Clear. Scattered Flurries In The Evening.
Lows In The Upper 20s. Northwest Winds 10 To 15 MPH With Gusts Up
To 30 MPH.
 
ryan1234 said:
Not that this system is anything like the one I am about to mention, but are there any similarities between this system and the Feb 2013 one? I remember those heavy snow showers were completely unexpected.
Click to expand...

It’s unlikely, sfc temps are just a tad to warm, although if you can get under a Convective shower with a more substantial updraft and it can cool you down to around 40/39 with a lower freezing level, then snow can maybe enter the picture
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s unlikely, sfc temps are just a tad to warm, although if you can get under a Convective shower with a more substantial updraft and it can cool you down to around 40/39 with a lower freezing level, then snow can maybe enter the picture
Click to expand...

That's unfortunate. That was probably one of my favorite "little" storms ever. It was such heavy wet snow that it stuck to everything, minus the roads. I miss those times, one year later we had the Valentine's Day system, which is also one of my favorites because that was pretty much board-wide. Le sigh...
 
DeeeeeeTeeeeeeee, is beside himself! ALEEEEEET HE ?
 
FWIW a couple GEFS members have some snow flurries for the piedmont of nc tomorrow.


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this Convective setup almost matches what we had the end of last February when it comes to temps/thermodynamics looking back at that thread
 
Looks like I’ll be watching that rain snow line come all the way down to us but we run out of moisture before we get in on it... hoping for some back end flurries ... I know I will be disappointed but it’s trended at least to this point positively ?? If that can even be the word to describe it .. I guess all we can hope for is more moisture than what models are seeing and a crash of temperatures a little quicker .. and maybe an upper low surprise convection? .. the usuals
 
Hrrr still showing some rather impressive convection tomorrow, around CLT it’s less unstable and there’s slightly higher dewpoint spreads, but it’s also cooler and wet bulb temps are better, which makes it easier for graupel/snow pellets to make it to the surface E8949BB5-0333-4B21-BFD5-35400ECA3446.jpeg0C3B671D-A8F7-4C02-8162-7DC66D18EEC8.png in SC, while sfc temps are higher (upper 40s/low 50s), there’s more cape and better dewpoints for convection, so this allows deeper convection/stronger updrafts and a shot at some graupel there 53476BD2-1230-4EDD-B66E-D2E32D1CF393.jpegAE492DBC-8820-4898-93A2-7A015E20C4C5.png
 
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