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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

Ollie Williams said:
This is the type of thing that really irks me. If only we could get the timeline to shift to the night. Really is workable.
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This still looks very doable I mean this is the only set of runs that have really started showing something now we got the classic precip trends which usually go up in days leading up ... that could mean higher rates and there for boom
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I don’t see a cold air source pushing enough to get into the upstate. Still time to change but I just don’t see it right now. The closer you are to I-40 and/or the mtns, the better chance you have.
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temps on wunderground have actually ticked a few degrees lower for Mon, Tues here in Chattanooga after tonight's model runs. I think their algorithm is GFS heavy though. Also moisture has ticked up a bit.
 
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But RAH thinks rain:

The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will
feature increasing clouds and probability of rain Sun night-Mon,
with a considerably cloudier; cooler; and wetter Mon than previously-
forecast. While cool, and turning colder Mon night, the lowest
several thousand feet will remain too warm to support anything but
all rain until Mon night, by which time moisture associated with the
offshore low(s) will be lifting away. The remainder of the week is
forecast to be dry and mild, with temperatures moderating from upr
40s-lwr 50s on Tue, to upr 50s-around 60 by Thu, with the coldest
temperatures in the mid-upr 20s Wed morning.
 
FallsLake said:
But RAH thinks rain:

The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will
feature increasing clouds and probability of rain Sun night-Mon,
with a considerably cloudier; cooler; and wetter Mon than previously-
forecast. While cool, and turning colder Mon night, the lowest
several thousand feet will remain too warm to support anything but
all rain until Mon night, by which time moisture associated with the
offshore low(s) will be lifting away. The remainder of the week is
forecast to be dry and mild, with temperatures moderating from upr
40s-lwr 50s on Tue, to upr 50s-around 60 by Thu, with the coldest
temperatures in the mid-upr 20s Wed morning.
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MHX mentions there is a chance......

As the
low really cranks up Monday night, stronger CAA will develop,
with temps dropping into the 30s. Decent coverage of light rain
is expected to still be over the area, and while surface temps
likely remain above freezing it is worth mentioning that perhaps
some snow could mix in with the rain across the NW coastal
plain counties.
 
Downeastnc said:
MHX mentions there is a chance......

As the
low really cranks up Monday night, stronger CAA will develop,
with temps dropping into the 30s. Decent coverage of light rain
is expected to still be over the area, and while surface temps
likely remain above freezing it is worth mentioning that perhaps
some snow could mix in with the rain across the NW coastal
plain counties.
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Maybe the moisture stays longer in the east in time for the cold to work in. Looks like the airmass will be coming down from the N/NW which would favor folks farther to the east for the "cold chasing" setup.
 
Speaking of timing. If Tonights event would speed up just 2 to 4 hrs I would be sitting in snow showers at the App v/s Louisianna game instead of mid 30s rain showers. Ugh!!!.
 
I think I’d be very encouraged if I lived in NE NC, and I wouldn’t give up either, but as of the way things are looking, chances drop off the further you get from the border.
 
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