Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

[Myfrotho704_]

UK is a northern VA/mountains event

 

[Ollie Williams]

I took a look at the ICON on weathernerds.org, which uses a much different precipitation algorithm. Maybe a more realistic look?

The GFS is similar but with less precip.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Little bit concerned given the CMC/EURO (12z)/UK favor VA

 

[Ollie Williams]

Little bit concerned given the CMC/EURO (12z)/UK favor VA

I hope JB isn't right.

 

[RVD]

I took a look at the ICON on weathernerds.org, which uses a much different precipitation algorithm. Maybe a more realistic look?
View attachment 55519
The GFS is similar but with less precip. View attachment 55521

Weathernerds is always fun to look at, but I remember them being a bit too enthusiastic about frozen ptype during December 2018.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Weathernerds is always fun to look at, but I remember them being a bit too enthusiastic about frozen ptype during December 2018.

True, although I do think that with a GFS/ICON track, there is a greater possibility of frozen precip if we can get a heavier band, because temps really are close.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

True, although I do think that with a GFS/ICON track, there is a greater possibility of frozen precip if we can get a heavier band, because temps really are close.

Feels like there’s so many possible solutions, and we’re in nam range possibly at 06z, lol

 

[RVD]

True, although I do think that with a GFS/ICON track, there is a greater possibility of frozen precip if we can get a heavier band, because temps really are close.

Yeah, verbatim temps aloft aren't the issue in the same way they were in Dec. 2018 (shallow warm boundary layer here vs. warm nose) so maybe it's a better tool, at least to figure out where might see some flakes mix in. Precip is just too light on the current depiction of the GFS to do anything rate-driven. Coverage and amounts have definitely improved, but QPF over Raleigh is around 0.2" spread over 12 hours. Plenty of time for that to trend higher (and it probably will).

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Don’t know how I feel about this run, that energy north of the GL, I just don’t know

 

[Ollie Williams]

Don’t know how I feel about this run, that energy north of the GL, I just don’t know
View attachment 55528View attachment 55529

That’s good! That’s the feature that wants to absorb the southern stream to phase the wave, and mature it. However, it can be a bad thing because it moderates how far north the storm goes. So far the Euro doesn’t look like the ICON.

 

[Ollie Williams]

That’s good! That’s the feature that wants to absorb the southern stream to phase the wave, and mature it. However, it can be a bad thing because it moderates how far north the storm goes. So far the Euro doesn’t look like the ICON.

Actually I take that back, I think the way the southern stream pieces phase determines how far north it goes. This setup is a mess!

 

[Chandler]

Congrats Virginia

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Should be interesting what that upper level trough does

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It happening during that day ruins it so much

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sigh

 

[Ollie Williams]

I kind of have a hard time believing this is all rain.

 

[Chandler]

oof

 

[Myfrotho704_]

But the sun angle is so low this time of year. That's got to help right ?

Doesn’t matter, any sort of insolation hurts in this type of extremely marginal setup

 

[Ollie Williams]

I’m not freaking out about the Euro, I think that as long as we continue the trends of amping up the precip. Northern NC at least could pull out with some flakes with temps that are workable.

 

[SETNwx]

Starting to get confusing.. shouldn't there be a separate thread for the Mon system? The first wave is no snow for anyone...