• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I really don't see where the cold could come from. It would have to be heavy precip to crash the column imo because there just isn't any available cold.
Click to expand...
Theoretically if the system itself was 6-12 hours slower it would at least be much closer.
 
Sleet City USA said:
Theoretically if the system itself was 6-12 hours slower it would at least be much closer.
Click to expand...

We could use a bit of a further west trend/more -tilt as that would allow precip to stay back a bit more while CAA is happening, it’s nice to see the gefs/gfs trend better at H5 given there progressive biases
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We could use a bit of a further west trend/more -tilt as that would allow precip to stay back a bit more while CAA is happening, it’s nice to see the gefs/gfs trend better at H5 given there progressive biases
Click to expand...
Yeah I didn't even think about the progressive bias, that could come into play
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We could use a bit of a further west trend/more -tilt as that would allow precip to stay back a bit more while CAA is happening, it’s nice to see the gefs/gfs trend better at H5 given there progressive biases
Click to expand...
Yeah you can see the cold advecting in aloft on the gfs soundings it cools to freezing down to about 925 here but the moisture is gone. For some areas like the triad, Roxboro, @metwannabe the gfs was fairly close to a rain to wet snow event
 
I think the potential system we’re talking about is just that .. potential. I’ve been eye sing this for days and know the biases with the Gfs .. we’ve seen many times before models trend closer to the coast with more phasing with low pressures off the SE coast in the winter time... this seems to be the case once again here.. to see the latest Gfs you can see that things are only trending that way .. for now still nothing concrete but you gotta at least be a bit excited for this potential system .. how lucky would it be to go multiple years with a early December storm
 
This looks much better compared to 12z and would prob be good for I-40 north with this look for part 1, and would probably be better for a tilt 941A3A74-4207-4986-B565-734B3BEF8BF8.png8643758C-7588-4F20-A627-F982F6F85AE0.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top