Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol some of the initial low-level cold air on the backside is getting blocked by the mountains.
Smfh
Smfh
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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I'd rather just not have anything than a 40 degree rain. Smh
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like the low-level melting layer towards the end of the storm is at least 3000-3500 feet deep in central NC, you really want that above freezing layer near the ground in cases like this to be no more than 1,500 feet to even have a sniff at snow.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Straight up pain 
Clear trend here, this is good for VA but not for NC unless maybe we can get something at the end ? 
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Analfrontal?
BHS1975
Member
Nice chilly rain. Congrats.
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But if it was a month later.......
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even colder rain?
RVD
Meteorology Student
Yeah, this one's trending in the wrong direction now. Oh well
White rain and sleet
cd2play
Member
If cold air was available, it would do one of two things... it would either cut or suppress and leave us dry.
There’s always graupel from the upper level trough, yay 
Six Mile Wx
Member
I really miss the good model snow
icon back to a more interesting Solution again for areas in ENC 
Imagine spending millions and millions of dollars developing a state of the art weather model and then you say “finally, I’ve done it!” and then your model spits out this kind of crayola snow model output on the first day
FWIW that run was mostly ZR and Sleet.
Pattern - Winter 2019/2020 Model Archive
06z GFS 12/2 A weak little storm along a SE front (1/2) 18z GFS 12/2
southernwx.com
I don’t even remember the last time I saw a clown map for an upcoming storm ?
We suck so bad even the models have learned its not gonna snow here.
At this point if your looking for hope in NC, you want a further west/more nuetral/- tilted piece of energy here (this is the last piece of NS Energy in this setup) as this allows some precip to breakout ahead of the upper level trough, and at this point 850s are well below freezing 
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I predict downtown Houston will see snow before Charlotte this winter ?
Rgem about to provide the goods for VA per this shift 
Yep 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’ll take my chances here with that look. Much much more qpf.
RVD
Meteorology Student
Yeah maybe we could see something on the back end if this is the way models are going to trend?
I stand corrected. THIS is a clown map.
RVD
Meteorology Student
Yeah so if we're doomed to have the first N/S piece slow down and interact more, increasing/amping that --> heavier precip (rain) at first, then as the second upper level trough approaches and provides cold air and additional forcing we might be able to see some flakes:
RVD
Meteorology Student
Exactly
Gfs is slowly doing what the ICON/RGEM has done, I guess it’s progressive bias played a role in its fail and it mislead me yesterday 
Wowwwwsa
I wonder if there is any way we can get snow with this look, or will it just cut off at the VA border or maybe @metwannabe’s house if we’re lucky?
Now we need the opposite, and earlier phase between the energy, and then the last part to tilt favorably and more south and that could introduce wrap around backend snow into NC
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Like I said. Icon has been the most consistent model
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