-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Well, you would think this would give a fun result but nothing on the surface on the 6Z NAM. Typically surface features are about the last thing models get right, or at least that is what I’m hanging my hat on?
ajr
Member
Bone dry.
Don't think this will work out. But we have a few more model runs. Let's hope the 12z runs turn it around. Otherwise the LR still has some potential.
Hrrrv4 is dryyy and shears our the S/S wave
72 hrs for a NW adjustment would be nothing if we were on the transition line but when it's offshore.....grrr
Edit: actually prefer too suppressed even at this stage, feel like models do underperform precip shields on NW side of slp often
At least the SS wave is improving on the nam
Nam slightly inches back toward a better look. 54-66 hours out can't help but start feeling like we are running out of time.
I'll guarantee you that precip shield ends up NW of current modeling but it'll be light white rain
Ignoring the crappy thermals the 3k tried with the northern stream wave but it was too little too late
The CAMs are horrible
Wow.... it’s literally so close 
Then the nam drops this just offshore
Need a widespread dusting statewide. Has that ever happened? Or at least 90% of the state I know Oak Island ain’t happening.
12Z models
Pain 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This suppressed look puts me in a pretty good spot down this way in the Sandhills. Just need heavy enough rates and a bit more cold air
Ha that's the most frustrating part right. I feel like we did this last year
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I would happily take my 2" and tip my hat to the folks in the SE.
Dang wonder if we can get something as real as that this winter, maybe mid dec can provide
Heelyes
Member
No kidding pull the trough west and slightly more neutral tilt and we would be in business
What a....never mind. ☹
It’s not like it’s far away, if you slow the southern stream wave here you can get back a thin swath of snow on the northern side of the band as the precip would be held back with cold air in place, the SS wave is improving on both nams and it’s getting slightly more juicier but the problem is it sped up a bit here 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Icon looks like ?
Toss since it looks bad ??
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol! Gonna need an epic nw trend to save us
Icon is consistent
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
It'll trend nw and then rain on everyone
not to be too much of a weenie but we have seen much larger shifts than what we need even inside 24-48hrs. I don’t hate the look right now. If we had the perfect track right now we would all be sweating bullets.
Wasn’t there a suprise snow that produced especially for Burgaw NC/other places in ENC in March 2019 that came out of nowhere on modeling ?
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Correct .... I would much rather have it suppressed at this range, than to be watching that rain/snow line bounce around every run.
...... 