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Ostrich December

Just a reminder that there’s bad runs and good runs so don’t freak out, get disappointed, or cancel if there’s a bad run or a few suites of bad runs, totally normal, and I’m guilty of that, but with the first wave I’m honestly leaning towards severe weather, second still has potential and many possibilities
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Just a reminder that there’s bad runs and good runs so don’t freak out, get disappointed, or cancel if there’s a bad run or a few suites of bad runs, totally normal, and I’m guilty of that, but with the first wave I’m honestly leaning towards severe weather, second still has potential and many possibilities
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100% agree, bottom line, don't cliff dive. I personally am not excited about the snow chances because models haven't reflected that enough, but what do I know. I don't think this is anywhere near the best pattern we've ever seen in years on the models for snow, but I am encouraged for some long-lasting cold through the first week or two of December!
 
Ollie Williams said:
Even if we don't get a big storm like some were hoping, I'm not disappointed in regards to the colder air.View attachment 53473
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I hope and assume @pcbjr is keeping up as this gives Hogtown an average of a whopping 7 F colder than normal for early Dec with no end in sight! I'll take my -6 to -7 anomaly, too! This pattern , a classic +PNA, often gives the deep SE the coldest anomalies. And note that there is often a very warm (anomalywise) Canada with these as is the case here.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Just a reminder that there’s bad runs and good runs so don’t freak out, get disappointed, or cancel if there’s a bad run or a few suites of bad runs, totally normal, and I’m guilty of that, but with the first wave I’m honestly leaning towards severe weather, second still has potential and many possibilities
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Yep I’ve literally gone from 4-6 inches of snow, to nothing then to 14 inches of snow back to an inch since last nights gfs runs through this morning. Either way cold cold temps look to start December off this winter.
 
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Now IF we could get that to verify it would have potential. Never been a big fan of the pattern the first few days of December. Never understood the best pattern in years saying. It's not the worst but what exactly is that sprawling Canadian ridge helping with? It's just blocking up Pacific air.
 
Perhaps some one could help me on this. This winter, with about half of the airline industry grounded. Do you think balloon recon would increase or would we lose data that a normal seasons recon were collected.


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Ollie Williams said:
100% agree, bottom line, don't cliff dive. I personally am not excited about the snow chances because models haven't reflected that enough, but what do I know. I don't think this is anywhere near the best pattern we've ever seen in years on the models for snow, but I am encouraged for some long-lasting cold through the first week or two of December!
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Yes, this distance out, we just want to keep an eye on the model trends, and not look and "run vs run"
 
SD said:
Am I seeing this right that the eps mean doesn't have a high above 50 from 12/1 on?
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Yeah, basically lol. Definitely seems like a cold pattern you're more accustomed to seeing in an El Nino winter, it's not vodka cold as most of the air masses are continental polar, but we're more persistently below average & of course wet. If only we had early-mid January climo to work w/, temps would be about 8-10F colder overall.

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Where is Falls Lake, falling off on the job? Lol Indexes here looking even better heading into December. AO looks similar to the NAO with it going negative. I love seeing this in early winter, I believe I remember Don Sutherland on American once discussing how the AO tends to repeat itself during the winter months based on what it does entering winter, someone can correct me if I’m wrong. It may not produce next week, but hopefully we can get more blocking the next few months.
 
Stormdoc said:
View attachment 53655
View attachment 53656
Where is Falls Lake, falling off on the job? Lol Indexes here looking even better heading into December. AO looks similar to the NAO with it going negative. I love seeing this in early winter, I believe I remember Don Sutherland on American once discussing how the AO tends to repeat itself during the winter months based on what it does entering winter, someone can correct me if I’m wrong. It may not produce next week, but hopefully we can get more blocking the next few months.
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I believe Don used to say the AO was like a 30-60 day cycle I cant remember the exact numbers
 
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