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Ostrich December

accu35 said:
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There's always the Dec 13-17 time period
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Everybody is looking right past that time frame lol
 
tennessee storm said:
there is just not enough cold air if much any in play at for this system, hate be debbie downer, but rest of december looks warmer than average to me what im seeing
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I understand that but that doesn't mean it's impossible to sneak something minor like last week (which featured marginal temps as well) in, not saying it will happen but I'll take anything at this point.
 
RollTide18 said:
I understand that but that doesn't mean it's impossible to sneak something minor like last week (which featured marginal temps as well) in, not saying it will happen but I'll take anything at this point.
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A pattern like that puts a whole new meaning on the word marginal lol
 
Not sure where to put this, but I went into the GSP snowfall observations (all made at the airport) to find runs of more than two calendar years without greater than an inch of snow recorded. The current drought is 7th of such runs
Mar 37–Dec 40
Mar 42–Nov 46
Feb 49–Jan 52
Mar 52–Dec 55
Feb 55–Dec 58
Feb 91–Feb 93
being the previous runs.
 
I’m enjoying this bonus of a seasonal to colder than normal first 1/3 of December in the SE US thanks to the +PNA. Hopefully we’ll get a repeat of something similar at some point later during what has always been expected to be a pretty solidly warmer than normal winter overall. I expect another two colder than normal 5-7 day periods this winter because that usually happens even in a mild winter.
 
GaWx said:
I’m enjoying this bonus of a seasonal to colder than normal first 1/3 of December in the SE US thanks to the +PNA. Hopefully we’ll get a repeat of something similar at some point later during what has always been expected to be a pretty solidly warmer than normal winter overall. I expect another two colder than normal 5-7 day periods this winter because that usually happens even in a mild winter.
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Isn’t warmer than normal, normal now? These average need to be adjusted.


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Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, I saw that and looks pretty close!
View attachment 55973View attachment 55975
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I think the only real issue, which I think would be difficult to overcome, is the ridge over the NE, which pushes out precip out into the Atlantic too early before the wave can really mature, which ends up doing so over GA, which ideally would need to happen over AL. Temps look to be cold enough taking into account wet-bulbing.
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NoSnowATL said:
Changes 1/1/21?
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I so desperately wish we would know that soon but no. Probably not till spring at the earliest , though this update to the normals will release an insane amount of new features such as offshore air temp normals , interpolated normals for places with no station , many different types of calculated normals etc.

You can look at the raw means though for 81-10 and compare to the raw means 91-20 on nowdata however . Normals though got to wait .
 
Tarheel1 said:
Cold chasing moisture! ?View attachment 55968
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Lickwx said:
I so desperately wish we would know that soon but no. Probably not till spring at the earliest , though this update to the normals will release an insane amount of new features such as offshore air temp normals , interpolated normals for places with no station , many different types of calculated normals etc.

You can look at the raw means though for 81-10 and compare to the raw means 91-20 on nowdata however . Normals though got to wait .
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Climate change is inevitable...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hopefully we can score one around mid month before the pattern goes to crap
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The 14-16th timeframe has looked sorta-close-to-something a few times before this model run, so it wouldn't surprise me for this to be our best shot for the foreseeable future.

Ollie Williams said:
I think the only real issue, which I think would be difficult to overcome, is the ridge over the NE, which pushes out precip out into the Atlantic too early before the wave can really mature, which ends up doing so over GA, which ideally would need to happen over AL. Temps look to be cold enough taking into account wet-bulbing.
View attachment 55976View attachment 55977
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Yeah, looks like this is preceded by a big cutter around the 12-13th. A bit hard to tell what happens on the free Euro maps, but looks like it just sorta decays over Canada? If we could get this feature situated further SE, that would help a lot. But that's, y'know, not how these things usually trend.
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RVD said:
The 14-16th timeframe has looked sorta-close-to-something a few times before this model run, so it wouldn't surprise me for this to be our best shot for the foreseeable future.



Yeah, looks like this is preceded by a big cutter around the 12-13th. A bit hard to tell what happens on the free Euro maps, but looks like it just sorta decays over Canada? If we could get this feature situated further SE, that would help a lot. But that's, y'know, not how these things usually trend.
View attachment 55978
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If you go on pivotalweather.com, they have free hi-res euro maps
 
Still no fall leaf peak here. They actually just stated turning a few days ago due to the cold start to Dec with almost all leaves still on trees! But it should move along pretty fast now. So, peak is looking like ~12/10-15.
 
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GaWx said:
Still no fall leaf peak here. They actually just stated turning a few days ago due to the cold start to Dec with almost all leaves still on trees! But it should move along pretty fast now. So, peak is looking like ~12/10-15.
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What trees actually change down there? I know there are a few sweetgums and red maples around water, what else? The scarlet oaks are always the last to change up here, mid November, but you can see just how many there are this time of year because they hang on to their crimson leaves well past any other tree.
 
J.C. said:
What trees actually change down there? I know there are a few sweetgums and red maples around water, what else? The scarlet oaks are always the last to change up here, mid November, but you can see just how many there are this time of year because they hang on to their crimson leaves well past any other tree.
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We have some dogwoods and various deciduous oaks in addition to the evergreen live oaks. We also have a good number of sweetgum, which produce very pretty multicolored leaves. But between the pine, palm, live oaks, and other evergreens, we don’t have nearly the % of deciduous that ATL has.
 
GaWx said:
We have some dogwoods and various deciduous oaks in addition to the evergreen live oaks. We also have a good number of sweetgum, which produce very pretty multicolored leaves. But between the pine, palm, live oaks, and other evergreens, we don’t have nearly the % of deciduous that ATL has.
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Much of the coastal south up into southeastern Virginia even is the same . I was in the Croatoan national forest earlier this week and fort Macon state park . It was incredibly green with the oaks , pines , and even palms . Fort Macon state park especially the coastal forest was 100% green.

raleigh is greener than the Piedmont as well, still not like the coast though. Has to do with soil promoting more conifers here . Charlotte for example despite being similar temp wise looks so much more bare.
 
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