Yeah that patten is way better than previous years and just a taller western ridge from being good. But that look verbatim still won't get it.
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
tennessee storm
Member
The pacific is killing us be honest it looks like crap
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
18Z NAM looks quite a bit different at hour 63 with that energy diving down for system #1
As much as the PAC sucks, we can still work with a -NAO
Example
Example
Nope just a few cliff divers here from one day of models when the same people they pay for says to watch out. I’m keeping the discussion going because I see cad potential too.
That’s the spirit ?
Most models overdo temps in CAD situations to some degree, especially the globals. It seems like the NAM is usually best (it’s also best at sniffing out warm noses, IMO).
Biggest difference I see is a better 50-50 low in 2010 and now we have ridging there.
True, it’s adjustable tho, I wanna bet over the next few days we’re gonna have several Debbie downer runs and good runs for that miller B System and something after perhaps, given we’re entering a nice -NAO, problem is, Will they stick around and happen ? Lol
Keep Christ in Christmas like faith in snow. Please like if you agree and keep winter storm tracking through Christmas. Don’t let the same few keep you from discussing the weather here. Enjoy expert analysis from webb and others. Pay me no mind I just try to speak the truth.
Thank you. I was thinking that the Euro specifically was a little warm in CAD situations. In fact I can remember that the January 2016 storm, the Euro had me getting very little in the way of onset ice and temperatures would then stay above freezing most of the storm. The NAM however had me a few degrees colder with temperatures staying in the upper 20s and me getting a predominately sleet event which aside from a little snow at the beginning and end is what happened.
Yeah I think we may see some fantasy storms show up here and there. Hopefully this pattern holds. Even 2010 didn't produce until Christmas and then in early Jan. 2011. I don't even want to think about it if we haven't scored by mid Jan this year.
The dews in the NE are what you are looking for
and the wind has veered around to the NNE
But youd really like to see the 1026 isobar down into NC not in Pa and the wedge doesn't have a ton of depth to it likely on from the sfc to 950 if that. In many locations that will be quickly eroded from the top down by precipitation and WAA on SE winds then even further warmed by any freezing since the cold dry feed is so weak.
Realistically with the parent low travelling into the Ohio Valley it becomes difficult for this to be anything but a primarily ZR/RN event for the Carolinas since the tendency will be to flip winds from 950 S. If you want more IP or a shot at SN you will need the primary low and shortwave to trend weaker or south. This might be enough to veer winds in the 925-700 layer more E or NE and hold in some cold longer.
and the wind has veered around to the NNE
But youd really like to see the 1026 isobar down into NC not in Pa and the wedge doesn't have a ton of depth to it likely on from the sfc to 950 if that. In many locations that will be quickly eroded from the top down by precipitation and WAA on SE winds then even further warmed by any freezing since the cold dry feed is so weak.
Realistically with the parent low travelling into the Ohio Valley it becomes difficult for this to be anything but a primarily ZR/RN event for the Carolinas since the tendency will be to flip winds from 950 S. If you want more IP or a shot at SN you will need the primary low and shortwave to trend weaker or south. This might be enough to veer winds in the 925-700 layer more E or NE and hold in some cold longer.
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Here’s some scenarios for you curious folks
Attachments
Some good news, the weeklies snow mean was the highest I’ve seen the entire winter!!
I love when you send the ensembles out like this! Good perspective
Congrats FLORIDA
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Hope can be a wonderful thing my friend, just be careful of hearbreak! ?
Yeah I've heard the same thing from peeps from Columbia SC for years saying they're due. Unfortunately Mother Nature doesn't care. However the last 2 -NAO years CAE and all the upstate cashed in. Unfortunately we don't know if this is even going to be a -NAO year yet.