The GFS has been trending much better over the past three runs.
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, very similar trend on its ensemble and the EPS too.
not far here from a miller A look 
Need the energy in the Rockies to dig a little more and separate from the main initial system
I have a hard time seeing this being a Miller A only because the wave axis is over the NE. However, as @SD said, get the two waves to separate, and that NE wave could translate into a 50/50 low.
That looks solid for some severe weather, pretty legit warm sector if you ask me, lol 
Yeah I mean in a perfect would you could try to sneak a true southern slider in here but it would require near perfect wave timing. If the trailing energy detaches and slows it puts some of the region in the game since we can try to build the cold in but with a lack of a tall western ridge and potential kickers behind the trailing wave we would likely go the miller B route. But this still D7/8/9 so who knows
Lol GFS vs CMC vs ICON at 138 hours, wildly different.
CMC for the system it showed ice with last night is now some severe weather, at least the 50/50 is still there 
BufordWX
Member
Lol CMC has a solid snowstorm for Oklahoma in 5-6 days now.
BufordWX
Member
So the GEFS actually has a few interesting members for those to the west. 
1 member with a CAD storm.... congrats 
I guess it’s getting better, 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No wonder we are struggling to get cold air
Maybe if we can keep that negative AO around it will help us keep us from getting blowtorch warmth when the pattern shifts, and perhaps it will help to pull out of that pattern a little quicker. I know one of the big issues the last couple years has been just highly a positive AO we were seeing... often at record levels
BHS1975
Member
Yeah all the favorable indices in the world won't help you with that unless you just want to keep from torching.
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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During the downtime’s after today’s event , can y’all help me track this storm for me over this coming weekend? It’s been snow, rain, now looks snowier on 12z GFS! Maybe someone can post the good euro maps later today? Thanks in advance and I’m serious! 
Yep, this is more than just a normal warm variation. Unfortunately, for cold preferrers like myself, this kind of thing may become more and more common in the future with the Arctic, itself, so much warmer than normal most of the time. But we’ll survive lol. For instance, we’re still having a nice chilly first third of Dec thanks to a solid +PNA even with a much warmer than normal Canada. For example, way down to 26 F at Hogtown and 27F near here at Hunter last week. It can still get plenty cold.
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StormStalker
Member
That’s a real Bobby Dazzla right there! A top pocket find mate!
(I hope someone gets that).
Euro may do something interesting 
Definitely an interesting look, but the ridge isn't in a good place to tap into some high pressure.
The 850 line is over PA. I do love that 50/50 low look Just move those higher heights north.
The 850 line is over PA. I do love that 50/50 low look Just move those higher heights north.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Argh. So closeeee
Same exact setup except w/ mid winter climo temps and we probably get it
Same exact setup except w/ mid winter climo temps and we probably get it
Not a bad look for that range, CMC even with the southeast ridge is adjustable
Ez wet bulb in CLT with that look, while it’s only a week and a day or so out, any sort of climo helps out by being a little bit colder, like I said earlier we better find a way to score around this time
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
? Just been getting some sleet pellets and even flurries the past few minutes, didn't expect that today. No shutout baby!
What??? What’s your temp/DP?
ATLwxfan
Member
Yes. It’s December. I just want to keep from torching. So far so good. Oh and we got some flakes last week.
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I finally got around to playing with the daily December - NAO +EPO composite. Here are the dates, that came out if you want to sift through those. @Webberweather53
'1948-12-01 00z', '1948-12-11 00z', '1948-12-19 00z', '1948-12-20 00z', '1949-12-01 00z', '1952-12-02 00z', '1952-12-03 00z', '1952-12-06 00z', '1952-12-07 00z', '1952-12-08 00z', '1952-12-28 00z', '1952-12-29 00z', '1952-12-30 00z', '1952-12-31 00z', '1953-12-07 00z', '1954-12-31 00z', '1955-12-06 00z', '1955-12-07 00z', '1955-12-08 00z', '1955-12-09 00z', '1957-12-23 00z', '1957-12-27 00z', '1957-12-28 00z', '1957-12-29 00z', '1959-12-10 00z', '1959-12-11 00z', '1959-12-24 00z', '1959-12-25 00z', '1961-12-16 00z', '1961-12-17 00z', '1961-12-18 00z', '1961-12-19 00z', '1961-12-20 00z', '1961-12-21 00z', '1961-12-24 00z', '1961-12-25 00z', '1962-12-01 00z', '1962-12-02 00z', '1964-12-24 00z', '1964-12-25 00z', '1964-12-26 00z', '1964-12-27 00z', '1964-12-28 00z', '1965-12-19 00z', '1965-12-22 00z', '1967-12-02 00z', '1967-12-03 00z', '1967-12-04 00z', '1967-12-05 00z', '1967-12-06 00z', '1968-12-01 00z', '1968-12-07 00z', '1969-12-23 00z', '1969-12-24 00z', '1970-12-27 00z', '1970-12-28 00z', '1970-12-29 00z', '1970-12-30 00z', '1970-12-31 00z', '1971-12-03 00z', '1972-12-18 00z', '1973-12-24 00z', '1974-12-18 00z', '1974-12-19 00z', '1975-12-04 00z', '1975-12-05 00z', '1975-12-06 00z', '1975-12-07 00z', '1975-12-25 00z', '1975-12-26 00z', '1977-12-11 00z', '1977-12-16 00z', '1979-12-18 00z', '1979-12-19 00z', '1979-12-20 00z', '1979-12-25 00z', '1979-12-26 00z', '1981-12-01 00z', '1981-12-02 00z', '1981-12-03 00z', '1981-12-04 00z', '1981-12-05 00z', '1982-12-21 00z', '1987-12-01 00z', '1987-12-02 00z', '1987-12-04 00z', '1987-12-05 00z', '1987-12-06 00z', '1987-12-07 00z', '1987-12-08 00z', '1987-12-09 00z', '1987-12-10 00z', '1987-12-20 00z', '1990-12-03 00z', '1990-12-04 00z', '1990-12-05 00z', '1991-12-24 00z', '1996-12-04 00z', '1996-12-05 00z', '1996-12-06 00z', '1996-12-09 00z', '1996-12-10 00z', '1996-12-11 00z', '1997-12-15 00z', '1997-12-16 00z', '1997-12-17 00z', '1997-12-18 00z', '1997-12-19 00z', '1997-12-20 00z', '1997-12-21 00z', '1997-12-22 00z', '1998-12-01 00z', '1998-12-02 00z', '1998-12-07 00z', '1999-12-13 00z', '1999-12-15 00z', '1999-12-16 00z', '1999-12-17 00z', '1999-12-18 00z', '2001-12-08 00z', '2001-12-13 00z', '2001-12-14 00z', '2001-12-15 00z', '2001-12-16 00z', '2001-12-17 00z', '2001-12-18 00z', '2001-12-19 00z', '2001-12-20 00z', '2001-12-21 00z', '2002-12-15 00z', '2002-12-16 00z', '2002-12-17 00z', '2002-12-25 00z', '2002-12-26 00z', '2002-12-29 00z', '2002-12-30 00z', '2002-12-31 00z', '2003-12-02 00z', '2003-12-03 00z', '2003-12-14 00z', '2003-12-15 00z', '2003-12-16 00z', '2005-12-27 00z', '2006-12-18 00z', '2006-12-19 00z', '2006-12-23 00z', '2006-12-24 00z', '2006-12-25 00z', '2006-12-26 00z', '2006-12-27 00z', '2007-12-17 00z', '2007-12-18 00z', '2007-12-19 00z', '2007-12-20 00z', '2007-12-21 00z', '2007-12-22 00z', '2008-12-26 00z', '2008-12-27 00z', '2008-12-28 00z', '2008-12-29 00z', '2010-12-26 00z', '2010-12-27 00z', '2010-12-28 00z', '2010-12-29 00z', '2012-12-05 00z', '2012-12-15 00z', '2012-12-16 00z', '2012-12-17 00z', '2012-12-18 00z', '2012-12-19 00z', '2012-12-24 00z', '2016-12-27 00z', '2018-12-10 00z', '2018-12-11 00z', '2018-12-12 00z', '2018-12-13 00z', '2018-12-17 00z', '2018-12-18 00z'
tennessee storm
Member
not going get anything worth it winter storm wise, lets torch. bring on the SER with avengence... i know thats not going be a popular response in here, but. whats the use
Only six ended up producing a winter storm in December. Here are their composites:
'1968-12-07 00z', '1970-12-29 00z', '1970-12-30 00z', '1970-12-31 00z', '1971-12-03 00z', '1975-12-25 00z', '1975-12-26 00z', '2003-12-14 00z', '2010-12-26 00z'
BufordWX
Member
If/when we get the SER I hope we can get a few thunderstorms along side it. If not I’d rather not deal with it in the winter months. To me I root for one extreme or the other. Thunder storms or winter storms either is a win for me.
tennessee storm
Member
plus one... i agree
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Amazing work btw. My favorite one of this bunch that produced a winter storm was December 29-30 1970.
I wonder if cold was a problem here
@Webberweather53 couldnt this kill a -NAO ? 
tennessee storm
Member
that system mid month if it can become negative more negative tilted
that system around mid month can become more negative tilted, and we can get some better moisture return from the gulf has a chance to produce severe weather especially the western areas of the south.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It certainly could, (& there's some debate on this in the community although I lean towards +NAO/NAM/AO response from CMEs), aside from GCMs which come with their own set of problems, we haven't seen too many in the recent past to really have a good feel for what one of these does to the polar vortex
RollTide18
Member
Just because it doesn't snow, doesn't mean I don't like my cold, we have 9 other months to be warm, I'd like a 3 month break from the warmth.
