Brent
Member
Looks about right the snow stops at the metro lol
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
Looks about right the snow stops at the metro lol
Ummm...
I just checked the long range GEFS which has been advertising crappy pattern after crappy pattern, worse than the Weeklies. This new run jus flipped to a -EPO for late December, early January before going to crap!
I just checked the long range GEFS which has been advertising crappy pattern after crappy pattern, worse than the Weeklies. This new run jus flipped to a -EPO for late December, early January before going to crap!
This winter is certainly trying to change things up, already 2 small events for the SE and it’s not even the 10th
whatalife
Moderator
Euro weeklies were dog crap last year .. I’d air on the side of 50/50 at this pointQuestion is...who do you trust...
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Analfrontal fail 
ICON was close for NC tho ^ sfc temps to warm
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I take that back, looking back at it, looks more like overrunning/wave that gets sheared
504 over the lakes whoa..
Yeah there are some pieces there. Tidbits was only out to 132 and I thought it was interesting guess it failed
BufordWX
Member
I will take my chances with this look.
Geeez slow the southern wave for like 12-18 more hours and you got a nice snow event, that’s some solid cold to boot with it
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Haven't we had to depend on that to happen for the last couple of waves? Just didn't quite work out. But maybe this will be different!
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Man can't ask for better timing on the 00z icon run for next Monday. Has the bulk of precip arrive at 7am in the Carolinas. So close
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BufordWX
Member
ICON was really close to something over Georgia. Bulk of the precipitation falls in the mid 30s.
The last wave (today's snow) I believe was the only one like that, and really was a long shot considering the wave was coming out of the Great Lakes. This one is coming out from the NW, which tends to be more favorable. We need the northern stream to separate from the southern stream so that cold air can get ahead of the system, and build in high pressure. I think that with a "close" setup like this, cold air is there, it's just waiting to be tapped into.
From the last session of model tracking, I feel that the ICON has a +PNA bias, so I feel that we should discount that one for now.
mucho progressive 
This piece up north is going to try to keep the s/w from digging. Get a more +PNA, and have that northern piece further east, would allow it to dig, all the other models don't have it, so I'll be interesting to see how things play out. I'd attribute it to a progressive bias. However, the good
news is that the two waves continued to separate which is really important in the short-term development of this system.
news is that the two waves continued to separate which is really important in the short-term development of this system.
would you look at that, another flizzard, lol 
Gefs will probably suck tonight given it loves to follow the gfs, so I’m not to worried about a bad run tonight, yet
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Believe me, I or @Myfrotho704_ couldn't jinx it if we tried.
CMC looks ugly Already unless I’m wrong , honestly just waiting for the ECMWF given it was very close last run
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
IMO a good bit of the GEFS members look similar to the icon through Hour 120
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Honestly don't know how anyone could hate this progression... That PV is on the move south. 
CMC shows Ice again for that other system after
In my experience, when you get decent looks in early winter you pay the price down the road. We’re going to have to pay the piper soon enough.
A wilkesboro favorite 
Looks good for a blue norther in the plains while the entire east coast roasts.
RollTide18
Member
That is close.
These precip maps are ass. It could have a low transfer from West Virginia off the coast of Delaware and would still have Augusta GA as onset ZR. Hard to even get excited anymore ?
Short term roast.. but who knows. Warm Christmas/Late Dec calls look in jeopardy to me.. (no idea about winter storms, just looking at movement of cold).
Avalanche
Member
Nov. '92. We had early cold snap. Warm winter. Think I have the year right.
I’m good with dry cold. I chase the cold as much as I chase the snow honestly. Love a classic Arctic outbreak in the south. Single digit cold gets me fired up. It’s been a while.
Avalanche
Member
1985 for the win!!