Ostrich December

[Webberweather53]

This is different, that’s at 10mb and it shows warming of the Stratospheric polar vortex/some displacement, this is good for winter weather lovers as it would likely bring a TPV along with it, 500mb is different

If the -EPO goes up as shown on the GEFS, that'll shut off the favorable wave 1/displacement forcing on the TPV & it'll likely recover without a sudden stratospheric warming event or major disruption in the following frames, arguably strengthening more after the -EPO develops actually, unless the Urals high remains strong, in which case we could open the door to a split.

The key to getting more PV displacement/disruption is keeping the heights low over the Bering Sea & NE Siberia.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Oh no is that the southeast ridge

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This is not a 500mb pattern! This is at 10mb..... big difference! This is showing the potential stratospheric warming event coming up mid-month. Research "stratospheric warming effects". Sorry, Eric and Fro beat me to it.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Looking awfully warm and dry for much of December

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Looking awfully warm and dry for much of December View attachment 54204

That's CRAZY warm

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[tramadoc]

Looking awfully warm and dry for much of December View attachment 54204

NOAA usually can’t find maps without a map showing them where the maps are located.

 

[Ollie Williams]

18z GFS is nowhere near as good as 12z

12z

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

18z GFS is nowhere near as good as 12z
View attachment 54205
12z
View attachment 54206

I thought it wasn't as good. They change every run. lots of time to change

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[Ollie Williams]

I thought it wasn't as good. They change every run. lots of time to change

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I wouldn't say that it was bad, definitely a nice +PNA/-EPO which is good.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Womp Womp

 

[Ollie Williams]

00z GFS
Good news, no SER. Bad news, literally a repeat of the current pattern.

 

[Clem282340]

00z GFS
Good news, no SER. Bad news, literally a repeat of the current pattern.
View attachment 54243

Are there anyway to get a good storm out of the pattern

 

[Ollie Williams]

Are there anyway to get a good storm out of the pattern

Make it peak season, and let the snowpack build up in Canada, but otherwise no, not really. We need the ridge to extend into Alaska before we get a good shot at snow.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You would think this would produce snow, but it’s just a clipper fest, this look reminds me of 2018

 

[SETNwx]

You would think this would produce snow, but it’s just a clipper fest, this look reminds me of 2018View attachment 54244View attachment 54245

it's also over 10 days away...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well at least with this look, it could get quite cold

 

[Ollie Williams]

You would think this would produce snow, but it’s just a clipper fest, this look reminds me of 2018View attachment 54244View attachment 54245

Yeah, but the GEFS has this in 2018...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah, but the GEFS has this in 2018...
View attachment 54248

Wow..... rip lol

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

You would think this would produce snow, but it’s just a clipper fest, this look reminds me of 2018View attachment 54244View attachment 54245

2018 was fun. I’m not opposed to clippers. Sometimes they work out. And if you can sneak a wave underneath and they converge you can really get some fireworks.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

2018 was fun. I’m not opposed to clippers. Sometimes they work out. And if you can sneak a wave underneath and they converge you can really get some fireworks.

I don’t know but Mack will have fun with them, but your right, I mean mid Jan 2018 was a example of a clipper doing the right thing at the right time

 

[SETNwx]

A clipper hasn't worked out for Chattanooga since the 1990s, I think..