Ostrich December

[Webberweather53]

I wonder with we can maybe get another period of favorable tropical forcing again in a month that’s normally not favored (later Jan and feb)

Maybe I should ask Santa for phase 8 MJO for Christmas

 

[BufordWX]

FWIW the GEFS locking in with below average temperatures across the area into the second week of December.

 

[tramadoc]

Who pissed in your cereal today?

He’s a newbie I think.

 

[Webberweather53]

A little bit less digging & weaker looking wave on the Euro today vs yesterday's 12z. All else considered, it argues the southern stream wave will start moving a bit faster and more likely to phase in later frames (not as favorable for snow from wave #1 in places like the Carolinas (east of the mtns)).

 

[Webberweather53]

A little bit less digging & weaker looking wave on the Euro today vs yesterday's 12z. All else considered, it argues the southern stream wave will start moving a bit faster and more likely to phase in later frames (not as favorable for snow from wave #1 in places like the Carolinas (east of the mtns)).

And right on cue here comes the phase. Euro's bias to drag its feet in the medium range w/ cutoffs over the SW US making its presence known once again.

 

[accu35]

Bring the blocking and the storm will come

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Severe threat with this system is still definitely there

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just pulled this out of Alabama, woah lol

 

[wxdaniel]

Severe threat with this system is still definitely there View attachment 53413View attachment 53414

I’m curious to watch if there is a line of storms on the gulf will that reduce the instability across Northern Georgia and the Carolinas. Possibly reducing qpf rates as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Webberweather53]

Discussion w/ wave #1 will quickly be pivoting from snow/ice to a severe weather &/or tornado outbreak on the front end. Man that's an ugly synoptic look

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Woah, nasty high shear low cape look here

 

[Webberweather53]

Woah, nasty high shear low cape look here View attachment 53422View attachment 53423View attachment 53424View attachment 53425View attachment 53426

Wow mid 60s dews in late November, that's crazy

 

[BufordWX]

Liking the cold look after wave 1. Gonna be the coldest air so far this winter.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow I can’t get over the shear in these soundings in NC, these resemble Cameron Nixon’s “mid Atlantic bullet” so it’s a pretty classic Hodograph for this time of the year here

 

[Webberweather53]

We have not one, but 2 waves dropping south along the front range of the Rockies & high plains behind our big upper trough that's hanging out over the Great Lakes

 

[accu35]

12z Euro could be good on wave 2

 

[BufordWX]

That blocking...

 

[Ollie Williams]

That blocking...View attachment 53448

That ridge over SE Canada is a big problem in the setup.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Even if we don't get a big storm like some were hoping, I'm not disappointed in regards to the colder air.

 

[Webberweather53]

Even if we don't get a big storm like some were hoping, I'm not disappointed in regards to the colder air.View attachment 53473

Are we finally gonna see our first below average December since 2010?