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Ostrich December

As I've stated numerous times previously here, the +PNA pattern we're gonna be basking in during the first week of December will probably begin to morph into -EPO and look a lot more like a classic La Nina as we move deeper into the 2nd week of December or so & the SE US ridge may try to make a come back at some point before we reach mid month (Dec 15th) imo, but should be a fun ride leading up to then no doubt.

West Pacific forcing begins to really rear its ugly head in the first week of the month, usually taking a week or more for the mid-latitudes to respond and adjust accordingly

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Webberweather53 said:
As I've stated numerous times previously here, the +PNA pattern we're gonna be basking in during the first week of December will probably begin to morph into -EPO and look a lot more like a classic La Nina as we move deeper into the 2nd week of December or so & the SE US ridge may try to make a come back at some point before we reach mid month (Dec 15th) imo, but should be a fun ride leading up to then no doubt.

West Pacific forcing begins to really rear its ugly head in the first week of the month, usually taking a week or more for the mid-latitudes to respond and adjust accordingly

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View attachment 53405
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That could be interesting if we get a -NAO as it was alluded to on Paul Roundy's map.
 
Ollie Williams said:
That could be interesting if we get a -NAO as it was alluded to on Paul Roundy's map.
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Yeah, if we get a stronger -NAO response as we approach mid-December, then the SE US ridge will get squashed and that opens us up to getting smacked by truly deep arctic air masses from Siberia & the Arctic, instead of the continental polar ones that originate from south-central Canada as we'll see in the coming 2 weeks. The paper I linked to yesterday highlights the stronger phase 6/7 MJO >>> -NAO relationship in westerly QBO winters like we're in now due to the stronger N Pacific jet.
 
Webberweather53 said:
As I've stated numerous times previously here, the +PNA pattern we're gonna be basking in during the first week of December will probably begin to morph into -EPO and look a lot more like a classic La Nina as we move deeper into the 2nd week of December or so & the SE US ridge may try to make a come back at some point before we reach mid month (Dec 15th) imo, but should be a fun ride leading up to then no doubt.

West Pacific forcing begins to really rear its ugly head in the first week of the month, usually taking a week or more for the mid-latitudes to respond and adjust accordingly

View attachment 53404


View attachment 53405
Click to expand...

I wonder with we can maybe get another period of favorable tropical forcing again in a month that’s normally not favored (later Jan and feb)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I wonder with we can maybe get another period of favorable tropical forcing again in a month that’s normally not favored (later Jan and feb)
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Yea HM has been pushing for another favorable surge in subseasonal forcing to emerge sometime in early-mid January or so roughly.
 
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