Also just looking at soundings, areas east of the mountains in the SC upstate and NC Piedmont that are showing rain, the soundings are supportive of wet snow.
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
Broken024
Member
Guys I can't by in on this until Brick joins us and tells us about his trip home from school during the crusher. That's when you know the threat is real.
Time to fire up the weather bell subscription!
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I know all the focus is on early December but I am intrigued by the evolution of this toward the 2nd week/mid December. Can we eventually get enough PNA that we can kidney bean/lobe the PV into the Hudson Bay region before the wheels fall off?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Subseasonal signals point to this PNA ridge retrograding towards Alaska as we approach mid December w/ possible return of the SE US ridge, which would be favored even from a dynamics standpoint if this ridge becomes particularly intense. However, prior to that point, as the pattern is retrogressing and potentially evolving towards more of a -EPO instead of a +PNA, we certainly could see he famed +TNH/+PNA/active subtropical jet pattern start to materialize on the horizon and is a setup that often leads to big, widespread overrunning events. In any case, if we are really cold initially & have some good snow cover around south of the Great Lakes, the shift to a SE US ridge may come w/ a side of onset ice >>> Feb 4 2018 for ex.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah you can definitely get colder in Ninas than Ninos but this is not the way you're supposed to do that lmao.
LickWx
Member
Yeah we need an amplified pattern with a ridge up the west coast , Alaska and to the pole with big troughs coming down the plains . Instead we have a giant ridge covering the entirety of Canada .
LovingGulfLows
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Interesting. 12z GFS shows less separation between the two streams around hour 138. Looks like it wants to phase.
EDIT: They phase around hr 150 and the surface low runs up the apps. Good for the western part of TN and northern fifth of AL.
EDIT: They phase around hr 150 and the surface low runs up the apps. Good for the western part of TN and northern fifth of AL.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep 12z GFS goes for the big phase/Apps runner look, should be a nice lake effect & NW flow snow event for the Great Lakes and mountains respectively.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
>-20C 850mb anomalies. Wow
Just a little brisk.....
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Cold air chasing moisture will never work east of the mountains
Two waves coming towards our ULL. We’ll see what this does.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As crazy as this sound, when you see sub -10C 850s passing over warm area lakes in early-mid winter w/ enough deep-layer moisture laying around (& large enough lakes to generate a strong moisture fetch), you actually start running into the risk for seeing lake effect snow downwind of places like Lake Kerr, Gaston, & possibly even Lanier in NE Georgia.
Rare but certainly not unheard of.....
LovingGulfLows
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Lake Lanier had lake effect snow last year.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Why -10C? Well, 850mb height surface is roughly (just less than) 1km above the ground, to produce an absolutely unstable profile that is capable of generating convection, you need lapse rates >-8C/km, if your lakes aren't frozen (which they certainly aren't here), and the wind fetch is close to being parallel to the long axis of a major lake or body of water, you definitely can get mini lake effect snow bands! We just rarely see 850s that cold down here so the profiles aren't unstable enough, but that could certainly change in a big way next week.
?
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Seems as if there's much less precip on this run