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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

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+EPO/-NAOs like this one in January usually favor continuation of the pattern we've already seen thus far in December w/ warmth across the north & seasonable-slightly below average temps overall in the southern US, although they'll be a heightened risk for east coast cyclones this time around. Despite a few warmer looking model runs, I can tell you for sure that we're definitely not gonna torch w/ a legit west-based -NAO but we also aren't going to be super cold either w/ the +EPO hanging around.

I'd personally go w/ 0 to -1C temps overall in early January in the SE US, which is pretty cold in the context of the last decade or so.

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Webberweather53 said:
+EPO/-NAOs like this one in January usually favor continuation of the pattern we've already seen thus far in December w/ warmth across the north & seasonable-slightly below average temps overall in the southern US, although they'll be a heightened risk for east coast cyclones this time around. Despite a few warmer looking model runs, I can tell you for sure that we're definitely not gonna torch w/ a legit west-based -NAO but we also aren't going to be super cold either w/ the +EPO hanging around.

I'd personally go w/ 0 to -1C temps overall in early January in the SE US, which is pretty cold in the context of the last decade or so.

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So much for canonical La Nina
 
Webberweather53 said:
+EPO/-NAOs like this one in January usually favor continuation of the pattern we've already seen thus far in December w/ warmth across the north & seasonable-slightly below average temps overall in the southern US, although they'll be a heightened risk for east coast cyclones this time around. Despite a few warmer looking model runs, I can tell you for sure that we're definitely not gonna torch w/ a legit west-based -NAO but we also aren't going to be super cold either w/ the +EPO hanging around.

I'd personally go w/ 0 to -1C temps overall in early January in the SE US, which is pretty cold in the context of the last decade or so.

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No torch but no snow either. I'm probably a minority saying this, but I hate this pattern just as much as a -PNA +NAO pattern. Cold is useless without snow.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
No torch but no snow either. I'm probably a minority saying this, but I hate this pattern just as much as a -PNA +NAO pattern. Cold is useless without snow.
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I wouldn't say no snow, this pattern can definitely produce snow/ice in the middle of winter if you're north of I-20. It's definitely a good look for us in the Carolinas & pts north on the eastern seaboard.

This is what the precip looks like in those Januarys w/ +EPO/-NAO btw, you can see the evidence of increased coastal low activity w/ swath of positive precip anomalies extending from the Gulf coast to off the Carolina coast.

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Yeah, I guess we'll see. And I know this is just anecdotal, but I don't think normal or a tick below normal is going to bring the majority of the SE a winter storm. In my experience we need some cold arctic air, or we rain. I want to see the 850 line in Columbia, SC to feel good about my chances. Love the -NAO showing up, but I'd really like to see that pacific low retrograde west.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, I guess we'll see. And I know this is just anecdotal, but I don't think normal or a tick below normal is going to bring the majority of the SE a winter storm. In my experience we need some cold arctic air, or we rain. I want to see the 850 line in Columbia, SC to feel good about my chances. Love the -NAO showing up, but I'd really like to see that pacific low retrograde west.
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I know we all want to see Arctic air in the picture when talking about winter storms, but Webb is correct that it’s not requirement, especially for those north of I-20. Late January and into February 2010 was a great example of that and the storms we saw then started a couple weeks after our coldest average temps. Heck even the February 2004 storm occurred with a -PNA and that the biggest snowstorm I’ve personally experienced.
 
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