Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Webberweather53]

This is the composite of January-Februarys that had SSWE events in late Dec or January and had a tropospheric pattern in the 3 weeks leading up to the SSWE that closely resembles what this year looks like (+WPO/+EPO/-NAO/+SCAND). This year's SSWE analogs are very NINO-heavy as you'd probably expect given the aforementioned info in this thread.

 

[ajr]

This is the composite of January-Februarys that had SSWE events in late Dec or January and had a tropospheric pattern in the 3 weeks leading up to the SSWE that closely resembles what this year looks like (+WPO/+EPO/-NAO/+SCAND). This year's SSWE analogs are very NINO-heavy as you'd probably expect given the aforementioned info in this thread.

View attachment 59641

With a look like that, I hope it just comes down to being patient and that snow will come.

 

[Webberweather53]

The GFS is fixing to unload another +EAMT

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Geez

 

[Webberweather53]

1065 crashing towards Mongolia by 300-324 hr on this run. De ja vu

 

[whatalife]

Based off the model runs over the last day or so...The pattern between January 2nd-7th sure does look appetizing!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Webberweather53]

This pattern is definitely fine despite the +EPO. Even modest, continental polar air masses can easily get the job done in early January.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This pattern is definitely fine despite the +EPO. Even modest, continental polar air masses can easily get the job done in early January.

View attachment 59654

Yeah and while -EPO blocks can bring vodka cold, I hate them nowadays for there tendency to bring the southeast ridge out of the dead, at least with this look, the southeast ridge is shut down

 

[Webberweather53]

Worth mentioning the 850mb 0C line is hugging the I-40 corridor on the GEFS in this pattern. It's definitely cold enough in the means to snow in the upper south, just need the wave timing & placement to be right

 

[Webberweather53]

This is honestly a pretty classic Miller A signal on the GEFS in early January w/ west-based -NAO, +PNA, & a trough in the means near the MS-TN river Valley.

The question is how suppressed the actual storm is.

 

[GaWx]

I was really excited last night about the 0Z GEFS for the model showing a cold early January. But unfortunately for cold lovers, the 12Z is significantly warmer than the 0Z in early January. Hoping this is just a burp.

 

[Webberweather53]

I was really excited last night about the 0Z GEFS for the model showing a cold early January. But unfortunately for cold lovers, the 12Z is significantly warmer than the 0Z in early January.

This pattern bears some similarities to the one in early December except there's a big -NAO now and the center of the ridge is further north (which favors more cold this time). Most models if you remember showed a torch then & struggled to produce significantly BN temp anomalies until that early Dec pattern was close to the medium-range. I'm not concerned.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I was really excited last night about the 0Z GEFS for the model showing a cold early January. But unfortunately for cold lovers, the 12Z is significantly warmer than the 0Z in early January. Hoping this is just a burp.

I mean it will bounce around, but the overall pattern on the GEFS still supports cold

 

[Webberweather53]

The models wanted to torch us in a semi similar pattern in the extended during early December. Reality was much colder than this (shocker)

 

[Webberweather53]

The models wanted to torch us in a semi similar pattern in the extended during early December. Reality was much colder than this (shocker)

Reality: We ended up ~2C below average in early December when the extended showed a torch in a similar pattern.

 

[packfan98]

This is honestly a pretty classic Miller A signal on the GEFS in early January w/ west-based -NAO, +PNA, & a trough in the means near the MS-TN river Valley.

The question is how suppressed the actual storm is.

View attachment 59658

That does look ideal for a Miller A southern slider. Let's hope we can dial one or two in.

 

[GaWx]

I mean it will bounce around, but the overall pattern on the GEFS still supports cold

I hope so. Instead of solid BN, the 12Z GEFS is near normal. But at least that’s better than AN being shown.

 

[Webberweather53]

It's definitely been a while since this pattern has shown up.

 

[Tarheel1]

This is honestly a pretty classic Miller A signal on the GEFS in early January w/ west-based -NAO, +PNA, & a trough in the means near the MS-TN river Valley.

The question is how suppressed the actual storm is.

View attachment 59658

Been 32 years since we had a good Miller A, were due! ?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Been 32 years since we had a good Miller A, were due! ?

I didn’t know Canada got Miller A’s.