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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol wheres that torch it showed the week of Christmas ? doesn’t look right to me, would think something gets buried under the block
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Yeah, it's worse after that. Pacific flow looks to strengthen and the conus warms. Western trough forms and the southeast ridge makes a come back. Perhaps it's not seeing the strat stuff at this point, I don't know. But I can't shake the feeling that the pacific is going to be a serious fly in our ointment next month.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah looks horrible.
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BUT that -NAO will save us!
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Rain Cold said:
We can get every single kind of pattern in the winter except a cold and stormy one.
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Better than a death ridge parked over us though, That pattern > -EPO/-PNA/southeast ridge by a mile, at least with that look you can get cutoffs and certain other things like that, a southeast ridge is just a complete shutout
 
Webberweather53 said:
This pattern favors transient periods of warmth and cold overall it’ll end up seasonable and I don’t see anything yet to change my thinking on that.
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Agreed! I think this winter models will trend colder closer to verification time. Remember December WAS forecasted to be above normal.
 
Rain Cold said:
We can get every single kind of pattern in the winter except a cold and stormy one.
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Yeah, it's great we can get normal, but I want cold and snowy honestly. That's not likely to happen IMO with the pacific low anywhere near Alaska. If it retrogrades back west out of AK we'd probably do better. Closer to Alaska I just don't see how we can get cold enough to snow. Last several GEFS runs have moved it back to AK. As we get closer hopefully it moves back west.
 
Ollie Williams said:
You guys keep freaking out, I don’t see anything wrong with this pattern, as long as we can get some shorter wavelengths into the pattern, we can score with an event. Nobody posted this, but this was the CMC last night.
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Why are these events always at the tail end of the models? Can't we at least get there at D8 or something so we can run it forward a couple more frames?!
 
I want to know who’s butt to kick for this way BN temps across the upstate. The past 5-6 years I have been able to assemble toys. I’m freezing my balls off just carrying trash to the curb. The one wanting these temps, I have one thing to say to you. Have you even been outside yet???


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Webberweather53 said:
This pattern favors transient periods of warmth and cold overall it’ll end up seasonable and I don’t see anything yet to change my thinking on that.
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Exactly....nothing is going to "stick" around for long...warm or cold. Just have to time the cold with moisture, which is ALWAYS tough in the SE
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This has been consistently appearing on the euro/CMC with some sort of southern/suppressed wave yet there’s still complaining, lol, I know we live in the SE and it’s far out but that’s a good look
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As long as we don’t lose the euro we are good. #ForNow


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WxGSO said:
Exactly....nothing is going to "stick" around for long...warm or cold. Just have to time the cold with moisture, which is ALWAYS tough in the SE
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Yep as long as that big block sits over Greenland there isn’t going to be much in the way of an extended warm up or southeast ridge anytime soon, quite the opposite actually.
 
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