Clem282340
Member
Trying to learn here what is the last picture mean
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
ajr
Member
Looks like a trend towards a split pacific flow. Nino like, right?
That’s an ensemble pressure density map. So since there are 30 members, depending on how close each piece of low pressure is to each other, the higher the shade of green/orange. The little numbers are low locations. Red is lows, Blue is high.
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Different pressure systems on the individual ensembles. The numbers represent MB’s.
Avalanche
Member
The only time I drove to Norfolk for a storm was a Noreaster.
That doesn’t make me upset to see.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Yep and I LOVE it! Bout time too! Now if we can just get some stinking S N O W!
Ron Burgundy
Member
I hate Miller B’s with the burning passion of a thousand suns. I don’t think it has to do with my location or the fact that the coastal low transfer has ripped my heart out time after time. I think I’m pretty objective here. ?
Someone’s been burned one too many times ?
Yeah, they screw over Chattanooga most of the time as well.
Montanasnow30
Member
This map looks so freaking beautiful 
JLL1973
Member
What run and model is this?
Stormlover
Member
Yeah, that would be nice information when you post something, right? lol
GFS is better this run.
Storm5
Member
Yeah gfs was close to fireworks
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Let's see if gefs and cmf bites on this also..
Montanasnow30
Member
If you a frame or 2 earlier. It was trying to give it a go.
Pretty classic coastal bomb look on the 00z GFS. You love to see it!
Clem282340
Member
Would this be Miller A or over running
For TN and NC. Any consolidated system cooks the rest of us. We need the trough to dig a good bit southward.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Lol. We get that to verify and we all just spike the football and go find a new hobby. ?
It is system after that.
Miller A. Low pressure forms in gulf or Atlantic without any surface low transfer. Overrunning always has a very weak surface low if any and is mostly moisture getting lifted into cold air.
not that bad, even for NC, considering it's only out to 156hrs.Cod gefs
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Clem282340
Member
Terrible run for the upstateCod gefs
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ATLwxfan
Member
Philly Special
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Some other members of the gefs is similar is main gfs. Is also suppressed. 
We hug suppressed solutions. I need it in Cuba 48 hours out.
whatalife
Moderator
Only 378 hours away...
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PV getting shredded(or am I reading this wrong?):
Storm5
Member
Only 378 hours away...
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Start the clock
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dsaur
Member
Worst would be storm disappoint ever for me was a b that had heavy snow warnings out up to the Bama border, had pounded fromTexas all the way to central Ala , then the transfer, and nary a flake on Atl. That was a terrible time, that wretched ice storm, then the Macon bowling ball...and poor Tony sitting on his sled crying
From Don Sutherland, over on 33 and Rain:
"Based on the latest guidance, the probability of a significant stratospheric warming event near or just after the start of January has continued to increase. The highest levels of the stratosphere will warm during the closing days of December. The warming will begin to descend during the opening week of January. In addition, the mean zonal wind at 1 mb will likely reverse while the mean zonal winds at 10 mb and 30 mb slacken considerably.
There is a proverbial fly in the ointment. It appears that this warming event could produce a split in the polar vortex. Typically, when the polar vortex splits, Eurasia is favored for cold. Displacement of the polar vortex often favors North America."
I'm not exactly sure what the difference between displacement and split is in this context.
"Based on the latest guidance, the probability of a significant stratospheric warming event near or just after the start of January has continued to increase. The highest levels of the stratosphere will warm during the closing days of December. The warming will begin to descend during the opening week of January. In addition, the mean zonal wind at 1 mb will likely reverse while the mean zonal winds at 10 mb and 30 mb slacken considerably.
There is a proverbial fly in the ointment. It appears that this warming event could produce a split in the polar vortex. Typically, when the polar vortex splits, Eurasia is favored for cold. Displacement of the polar vortex often favors North America."
I'm not exactly sure what the difference between displacement and split is in this context.
olhausen
Member
I can’t believe how similar this storm is to the one we just had and now the gfs is basically showing it the same night next week as the one that just rolled through. maybe it’s different as I don’t understand models near as much as most posters on this board. To the untrained eye though it looks very close to this weeks snow.