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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

SD said:
These cod maps are so sensitive. The soundings are not good/dry below 800
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Here's what TT has it at:
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Displacement is often better then a split, correct ?
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Eh I don’t think it makes a difference for us in terms of what the anomalies produce at the surface. Displacement is arguably better simply because the tropospheric pattern that creates it is usually more El Niño like and often features stronger tropospheric North Atlantic blocking (which is the tropospheric center of the AO loading field). Thus I am not necessarily saying displacement ssw is the horse pulling the cart, more or less it’s guilty by association.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
If you rate this Christmas a 10 I can't imagine what you would rate it if you had seen snow.
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When you're in weenie mode it’s all gold! lol , just as long as there's no orange or red.
As others have stated, snow would have been a pants job.
 
Webberweather53 said:
At this point, worrying about warm LR GEFS surface temp anomalies is considered guff when the planetary scale pattern doesn’t support it.
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If the block near Greenland and NE Canada disappears and we still have the big vortex over the far N pacific, then yea we got a problem. Until then, no
 
Ollie Williams said:
It’s really only one member that did anything. 06z and 00z were similar, just the members that skewed the mean happened to fall over the upstate.
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Looks like the members that did were Miller A events, as you’d expect for -NAO/+EPO. Unless the low is basically almost inland and extremely intense, upstate SC and SW Piedmont of NC gets screwed over relative to the rest of the Carolinas.
 
The other thing that I think we're fighting a bit (in addition to the AK vortex) is the Atlantic block really for most of the first week of January is too far east IMO. I'd like to get the core of the block west of Greenland in Baffin bay. It kind of gets there at the very end of the GEFS run, but it's late to the party. Earlier it looked it was going to set up nicely there the first week, but it's backed off of it I think. With the pacific and not ideal Atlantic block, not excited for the first half of January, but we'll see I guess. At least we're not last year.

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