Agreed. Remember if you in a bulleye of a storm 10days out 9/10 it’s wrong.
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
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Brick Tamland
Guest
A storm has been showing up around this time for a while now. Might have legs.
Isn’t that a Miller A setup? Which Columbia SC does best in.
whatalife
Moderator
Yes, the issue is the -EPO/+WPO. Not good for cold air making it southward to Columbia, if anything it's an I-85 north setup, but I wouldn't rule out anything at this range.
Yeah, the heights aren't deep enough over the SE.Let’s add the GEPS in there. It supports the EPS.
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Let’s add the GEPS in there. It supports the EPS.
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Indeed it does. The only reason I didn’t post it is that the GEPS has a 2 meter cold bias vs the near neutral bias of the best performing EPS. But it is good to see the GEPS cold, regardless. Also, GEFS has actually had a warm bias recently. Keep in mind that GEFS no longer has the cold bias of the prior version.
Hopefully, future runs of GEFS will go back to colder.
whatalife
Moderator
Wasn’t really talking about snow. Just the temps.
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Oh, then what @GaWx said.
Can we pan out on that, thanks
whatalife
Moderator
Here are the 10-15 day heights and temps from the 12z ensemble runs.
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LickWx
Member
Has it ? The control seems to miss my day time highs by a good bit cooler each time . Would like the stats
Here are the 10-15 day heights and temps from the 12z ensemble runs.
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Excellent post to show the warm bias of GEFS and cold bias of GEPS at 2 meters. The EPS has by a good margin been best at 2 meters with regard to both accuracy and bias.
Yes, per Maxar, EPS has recently both been on average closest to neutral bias over the SE US vs the usually too cold GEPS and often too warm GEFS.
The actual EPS bias has been very slightly cold due apparently to it being too cold due to snowcover cooling assumptions, but nothing like the solid cold GEPS bias and not as large a bias as the GEFS warm bias.
I’m talking about EPS mean of 51 members of which the control is but one. I’ll try to check into it next week with Maxar to see if the EPS control tends to run colder than the EPS mean. I have a feeling it does but I want to confirm this. Regardless, nice observation about the Euro control! So, if you had to guess, about what % of the time has it been too cold and what % has it been too warm? About how many degrees is it too cold and most importantly, what timeframe are you referring to? Day 3? Day 5? Day 7? Etc. If you can’t give any details, don’t sweat it.
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Broken024
Member
How does long range eps look
See above posts by Ollie, Kylo, whatalife and myself. Cooler than GEFS/cold though some of that difference is bias related.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
It would be nice to have a more optimistic title for the thread. Might being us some luck instead of being such a downer.
Nah, as we've said before, having a good title jinxes us. So far January is looking good with a crappy title.