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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Not only is that a absolutely disgusting look for severe weather and reminiscent of something in the early 2010s, but it’s looks like the southeast ridge will be a problem this run, where did this come from ??‍♂️
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not only is that a absolutely disgusting look for severe weather and reminiscent of something in the early 2010s, but it’s looks like the southeast ridge will be a problem this run, where did this come from
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It's bound to happen eventually. King euro had to deliver the news early

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Surprisingly it doesn’t look that bad, for a minute it almost looked like the SER was about to flex and block View attachment 60337View attachment 60338
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It seems that the WAR, actually doesn’t affect the system similar to the GFS, and won’t as long as we have that piece further east to prevent the pull of unstable air. Not too far off, but we need to get rid of that pesky Great Lakes low.
A2B28798-D22E-4078-A90F-AF9794D1ECC3.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
It seems that the WAR, actually doesn’t affect the system similar to the GFS, and won’t as long as we have that piece further east to prevent the pull of unstable air. Not too far off, but we need to get rid of that pesky Great Lakes low.
View attachment 60342
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Would phasing them be good or would it hurt ? and yeah that block comes in clutch for keeping that system out in the Atlantic, I wanna bet if we didn’t have the block, we would be having a absolutely raging southeast ridge, that return flow gave me nightmares lol
 
Looks like all this is connected to some extension of the jet in the North Pacific towards the PNA region which leads to some temp +PNA and digs something towards our west, it’s not a bad look at all, all comes down to timing with this sort of look and any type of interaction, as long as we have that block, shouldn’t see much of any dominant southeast ridge/WAR, but that could change, especially with the western Atlantic ridge F9F5433D-7C52-4B2D-93A0-F370F74B59B3.png199FF714-CC43-404B-8279-5686BA54B98E.png93B115C7-EE5F-4A34-9D8B-90BE79EB65C2.png
 
We may have to contend with some more severe weather around New Years, nice double barrel jet signature appearing on the EPS associated with the pretty active STJ with this neutrally/negatively tilted southern stream wave, also with a stout transient southeast ridge which returns moisture BCBAF7E0-B17D-4F1E-B11E-95E040F84093.pngB48F01EB-1038-496E-9455-B4B82DCF9369.png53C716FD-5B8D-47C2-9AEA-2F6062A7CB00.pngCF0FA069-840F-4CFA-AE87-DAB3A991BD8E.png
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The OPs are even further stout with this except for the GFS which is more strung out (we know what that probably is )BB861285-B30A-4C69-A99F-0A97B4B0DFB7.png3675E4B4-794E-4381-ADE2-9D2BB873AB43.png
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Given the amped nature Of this and how slow it is, warm sector recovery should be much better for areas farther west, even into Dixie alley
CIPS analogs already has a stout signal, even some significant severe weather
For areas further East its a wildcard with how strong the southeast Canada vortex/CAD is, that could lessen the threat (stronger CAD) or could increase it (weaker CAD but boundary in place nearby), this is something to really watch over the next few days as it looks more widespread, kinda want to start a thread on this given its under day 7 E1385584-7C35-4260-A80E-442F0907D9EA.jpeg095D325D-C5EF-4EA6-A288-1F5758A7506B.jpeg256501A6-82CF-40B1-85ED-E18C6FC31AEA.jpeg
 
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whatalife said:
Only 378 hours away...
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Finally, a serviceable look. Hope that continues.
 
SD said:
Agreed. Seems like some are forgetting we have 2 threads where you can complain all you want.
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He’ll learn like I did that at the end of the day, no one in here cares about how much your particular location gets screwed. I sat in here and watched everyone in here bring in the glory in Jan 2018 while I got screwed. Would be awesome if somehow we can reel in one for everyone in here.
 
SETNwx said:
From Don Sutherland, over on 33 and Rain:

"Based on the latest guidance, the probability of a significant stratospheric warming event near or just after the start of January has continued to increase. The highest levels of the stratosphere will warm during the closing days of December. The warming will begin to descend during the opening week of January. In addition, the mean zonal wind at 1 mb will likely reverse while the mean zonal winds at 10 mb and 30 mb slacken considerably.

There is a proverbial fly in the ointment. It appears that this warming event could produce a split in the polar vortex. Typically, when the polar vortex splits, Eurasia is favored for cold. Displacement of the polar vortex often favors North America."

I'm not exactly sure what the difference between displacement and split is in this context.
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A split keep the main low over the pole with a smaller low to the south. A displacement moves or elongates the entire low pressure southward while keeping the main low intact.
 
SD said:
Agreed. Seems like some are forgetting we have 2 threads where you can complain all you want.
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I know it’s hard to sometimes swallow but it’s good for the soul if people remember where you live, research historical annual snowfall for that area, and align expectations accordingly. It’s hard to do, but sometimes needed.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I know it’s hard to sometimes swallow but it’s good for the soul if people remember where you live, research historical annual snowfall for that area, and align expectations accordingly. It’s hard to do, but sometimes needed.
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True, while I didn't see any snow here, it was still all around me but everyone had frigid Temps. I'll rate this year's Christmas a 10, it could have been a lot worse.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I know it’s hard to sometimes swallow but it’s good for the soul if people remember where you live, research historical annual snowfall for that area, and align expectations accordingly. It’s hard to do, but sometimes needed.
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Agreed. It took me longer than it should have to accept this.
 
Interesting seeing the pattern that's being modeled now.

View attachment 60364
whatalife said:
This needs to change...
b1ccba52d8b6a014d8268dce456e4c9e.jpg

48a1fd48a12beec607778a6a7c3a45a4.jpg



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The pattern being modeled looks typical of what precedes a SSWE. What is interesting is we aren't seing a strong NPAC ridge yet but more of a nino preceeding pattern. I don't know if winter is waiting on Feb to get that going. Either way I am still hoping mid-January we see the pacific improve.

Screen Shot 2020-12-26 at 9.04.44 AM.png
compday.apWD9arP0m-1.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-9545600.png
 
KyloG said:
Interesting seeing the pattern that's being modeled now.

View attachment 60364


The pattern being modeled looks typical of what precedes a SSWE. What is interesting is we aren't seing a strong NPAC ridge yet but more of a nino preceeding pattern. I don't know if winter is waiting on Feb to get that going. Either way I am still hoping mid-January we see the pacific improve.

View attachment 60365
View attachment 60367View attachment 60366
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Yep. No need for anyone to give up hope yet. If most of us are honest with ourselves...We weren’t expecting to be where we are now!


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SETNwx said:
From Don Sutherland, over on 33 and Rain:

"Based on the latest guidance, the probability of a significant stratospheric warming event near or just after the start of January has continued to increase. The highest levels of the stratosphere will warm during the closing days of December. The warming will begin to descend during the opening week of January. In addition, the mean zonal wind at 1 mb will likely reverse while the mean zonal winds at 10 mb and 30 mb slacken considerably.

There is a proverbial fly in the ointment. It appears that this warming event could produce a split in the polar vortex. Typically, when the polar vortex splits, Eurasia is favored for cold. Displacement of the polar vortex often favors North America."

I'm not exactly sure what the difference between displacement and split is in this context.
Click to expand...
Split means part goes one way, part goes another...displacement means the PV stays intact for the most part and moves
 
whatalife said:
Yep. No need for anyone to give up hope yet. If most of us are honest with ourselves...We weren’t expecting to be where we are now!


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We are approaching strong la nina category and if that's the case then Feb could be ugly sans blocking.
 
The good news is we are not staring at a pattern of endless SE ridging and blowtorch for weeks that we are hoping will change by end of January. We do have a negative AO and some negative NAO that looks to be persisting, plus hopes that this SSWE will shake things up. On the other hand, no blockbuster or money pattern is showing up either, but we are still only a tweak or two away to delivering something here during peak climo. As usual, things are never as good or as bad as they seem.
 
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