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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

December will go down having at least 3 events that produced a trace of sleet or snow in Raleigh-Durham and near average temperatures there & really across most of the SE US. It's a massive win in the context of most Decembers since 2010. Hopefully, January 2021 also turns out better than most of the last decade of Januarys too.

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December 24-25 2020 NC Snowmap.jpg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This smells like +EPO/-NAO CAD pattern View attachment 60465
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Yep, with the -NAO hanging around, the PNA will basically tell us if a storm is coming, what type of event would be more likely to see. -NAO/+PNA >> Miller A; -NAO/-PNA >> Miller B. If the center of the block were to shift to at least the Baffin Bay, if not the Canadian Archipelago, the door would open more for overrunning. Perhaps that's something we'd see down the line.
 
whatalife said:
We’ll be lucky to just have seasonal temps the first half of January.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I thought we didn’t like the GFS? I can’t keep up.
 
Pretty obvious where we’re headed here, we’re headed towards a look that supports severe weather rather than any snow in the southeast (except for maybe TN), I hope we can reverse this but on every model it’s headed that way 24818B14-CE89-459A-A98E-3C91E565287A.gifB9E961B7-3A7C-44E9-B021-432204787C11.gifB9A577BE-967D-440C-85E8-21D5998B1A41.gifwe85923421-BE06-490A-BE2F-6BC4EC3E6796.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Pretty obvious where we’re headed here, we’re headed towards a look that supports severe weather rather than any snow in the southeast (except for maybe TN), I hope we can reverse this but on every model it’s headed that way View attachment 60478View attachment 60479View attachment 60480weView attachment 60481
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Seems like we've had one of these every week or so for forever now. For this area, the severe aspects have been unimpressive. Probably for 95 to the east, you'll have a better shot at legit severe.
 
Rain Cold said:
Seems like we've had one of these every week or so for forever now. For this area, the severe aspects have been unimpressive. Probably for 95 to the east, you'll have a better shot at legit severe.
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What differs with this setup is, at H5 this one is much slower/more amped, and includes many other areas in the southeast vs any other setup before, warm sector could be pretty far north into Dixie depending on how amped/slow down this is, while the last few setups have busted and that’s unsurprising for a winter time setup, it’s always a good idea to keep your guard up when you have extreme kinematics
 
JLL1973 said:
Icon was looking good until the low cut toward the lakes
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Yeah system number 1 isn’t looking to good for the more western parts of the southeast, what y’all need is for it to stop digging further SW, because all that does is place the footprint of snow further NW, we need to trend back the other way
2nd system I wouldn’t sleep on either 04F35576-D4BC-4624-9B55-CD230C17ABC2.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah system number 1 isn’t looking to good for the more western parts of the southeast, what y’all need is for it to stop digging further SW, because all that does is place the footprint of snow further NW, we need to trend back the other way
2nd system I wouldn’t sleep on either View attachment 60503
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I agree. Gfs is rolling now. Let’s see how it’s trending
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Taking the low up into the teeth of the HP. Nah GFS, that can’t happen.
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500 MB says yes it can. The ridge is flexing on this run...actually, although it looks like it could be fun to be in a place like Arkansas, I think we know where this one is going.

I'm more interested in that wave behind this one anyway.
 
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