Stephenb888
Member
We are always hedging our bets on the “next” one. It gets old.
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
First one never looked like much Of anything for our areas except for maybe some onset ice
JLL1973
Member
CMC is much better this run and very close 
Stormlover
Member
Good bit of both...
Brent
Member
Oh Canada
Not happening, ain’t no way Dallas is getting more snow then I’ve gotten the last 3 years
Brent
Member
ATLwxfan
Member
GFS cordially invites you to the beach on NYE. The SER is flexing.
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We haven't had any in 5 years were due
Were you incarcerated?
JLL1973
Member
Anyone have individual gefs members for the New Year’s Eve storm?
Can’t even southeast ridge the right way smh 
Lol ok 
Brent
Member
That actually looks pretty good here
-40s in Central Quebec, 35 in New York City... 
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Brent
Member
Hmmm 
Brent
Member
Whoa the euro is fired up lol
Brent
Member
This would be the biggest snowstorm I've seen since 1993 for sure lmao
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Is there some model agreement yet? If so, fire up a thread!
Brent
Member
Can Kicking time... SSWevent do your magic, lol:
Fire up another thread? Believe i would wait another few runs.
Model runs overnight were not good for the start of January. Sheesh
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
The PV split is still a go. The bad news is that the real cold will probably be on the other side of the globe:
Six Mile Wx
Member
Let that drop down to the gulf with a 50/50 low and some blocking!
ATLwxfan
Member
The January thaw. It comes every year. Might as well embrace it. It will come despite all the talk of SSW and Greenland ridging.
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tennessee storm
Member
Bad thing is not much to thaw out.... hardly even been frozen. Lol
whatalife
Moderator
Not a great look but it is slowly going in the right direction on the 06z GEFS. At the end of the run you can see the EPO and WPO trying to go in the right direction. Trying to find a few positives 
ATLwxfan
Member
Not a great look but it is slowly going in the right direction on the 06z GEFS. At the end of the run you can see the EPO and WPO trying to go in the right direction. Trying to find a few positives
I’m not sure how much to trust index predictions at day 15. A week ago we were celebrating this marvelous pattern coming in early January.
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Six Mile Wx
Member
Somethings different this time. The models usually show an Arctic outbreak that never develops, not this time. We may revisit the previous pattern that we just had with blocking before it’s over, except this time we could be looking at a lobe of the TPV sitting at the Canadian border!
whatalife
Moderator
This has always bothered me but why are the strat and troposphere so out of phase? Is it just the obvious that they are far different heights and I should wrap my head around the east answer or is there something deeper? 
Jon
Member
The -NAO looked great with some ridging over the West coast to help with suppression of the s/w but with that gone now, it’s useless.
EPS almost blanked RDU for snow, one sole member in the next 15 days....We hoped for this SSW and looks like we will get it... I hope it works out, looks like the can has been kicked to mid Jan.
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Stormlover
Member
We haven't had any extended cold to thaw from.
It seems like for the last several years, the can has gotten kicked to mid-January. There may have been an exception to that, but I don't remember it.The -NAO looked great with some ridging over the West coast to help with suppression of the s/w but with that gone now, it’s useless.EPS almost blanked RDU for snow, one sole member in the next 15 days....
We hoped for this SSW and looks like we will get it... I hope it works out, looks like the can has been kicked to mid Jan.
The trend has been in the right direction the past few model runs, which is what's important now.
Were you in Dallas for February 11, 2010?
I would just like to remind everyone, the first year (2017) I moved down from up north to Metro Atlanta was when the northern and western suburbs got slammed with 10"+ of snow (December 2017), then several weeks later the southern suburbs saw another 2-4" snow event.
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So I may just be the good luck charm Dallas needs to get the snow it's long overdue this season.