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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Lol wheres that torch it showed the week of Christmas ? doesn’t look right to me, would think something gets buried under the block

Yeah, it's worse after that. Pacific flow looks to strengthen and the conus warms. Western trough forms and the southeast ridge makes a come back. Perhaps it's not seeing the strat stuff at this point, I don't know. But I can't shake the feeling that the pacific is going to be a serious fly in our ointment next month.
 
Yeah looks horrible.

BUT that -NAO will save us!
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We can get every single kind of pattern in the winter except a cold and stormy one.
Better than a death ridge parked over us though, That pattern > -EPO/-PNA/southeast ridge by a mile, at least with that look you can get cutoffs and certain other things like that, a southeast ridge is just a complete shutout
 
This pattern favors transient periods of warmth and cold overall it’ll end up seasonable and I don’t see anything yet to change my thinking on that.
Agreed! I think this winter models will trend colder closer to verification time. Remember December WAS forecasted to be above normal.
 
We can get every single kind of pattern in the winter except a cold and stormy one.

Yeah, it's great we can get normal, but I want cold and snowy honestly. That's not likely to happen IMO with the pacific low anywhere near Alaska. If it retrogrades back west out of AK we'd probably do better. Closer to Alaska I just don't see how we can get cold enough to snow. Last several GEFS runs have moved it back to AK. As we get closer hopefully it moves back west.
 
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