• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

GaWx said:
Whereas the 12Z GEFS has this for lows of Jan 4th:

View attachment 59929

The 12Z EPS has 6-10 colder and has this:

View attachment 59934
Click to expand...

Let’s add the GEPS in there. It supports the EPS.
7f44e42387879fd97c948602d0b97ae5.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
whatalife said:
Let’s add the GEPS in there. It supports the EPS.
7f44e42387879fd97c948602d0b97ae5.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Indeed it does. The only reason I didn’t post it is that the GEPS has a 2 meter cold bias vs the near neutral bias of the best performing EPS. But it is good to see the GEPS cold, regardless. Also, GEFS has actually had a warm bias recently. Keep in mind that GEFS no longer has the cold bias of the prior version.
Hopefully, future runs of GEFS will go back to colder.
 
GaWx said:
Indeed it does. The only reason I didn’t post it is that the GEPS has a 2 meter cold bias vs the near neutral bias of the best performing EPS. But it is good to see the GEPS cold, regardless. Also, GEFS has actually had a warm bias recently. Keep in mind that GEFS no longer has the cold bias of the prior version.
Hopefully, future runs of GEFS will go back to colder.
Click to expand...
Has it ? The control seems to miss my day time highs by a good bit cooler each time . Would like the stats
 
Lickwx said:
Has it ? The control seems to miss my day time highs by a good bit cooler each time . Would like the stats
Click to expand...

Yes, per Maxar, EPS has recently both been on average closest to neutral bias over the SE US vs the usually too cold GEPS and often too warm GEFS.

The actual EPS bias has been very slightly cold due apparently to it being too cold due to snowcover cooling assumptions, but nothing like the solid cold GEPS bias and not as large a bias as the GEFS warm bias.

I’m talking about EPS mean of 51 members of which the control is but one. I’ll try to check into it next week with Maxar to see if the EPS control tends to run colder than the EPS mean. I have a feeling it does but I want to confirm this. Regardless, nice observation about the Euro control! So, if you had to guess, about what % of the time has it been too cold and what % has it been too warm? About how many degrees is it too cold and most importantly, what timeframe are you referring to? Day 3? Day 5? Day 7? Etc. If you can’t give any details, don’t sweat it.
 
Last edited:
It would be nice to have a more optimistic title for the thread. Might being us some luck instead of being such a downer.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Time to torch! Great

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
That pattern in January is a seasonable look for the SE US, basically average temps overall which is no different than what we’ve seen this month. GEFS has had trouble seeing cold beyond day 7-8 lately and I’m not paying its surface temps much attention unless the negative NAO goes away which it probably won’t for the foreseeable future.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top