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Pattern Winter 2020/2021 Model Archive

00z GFS 12/2
Massive Cold coming down + TN Winter storm!

Ostrich December

Just a reminder that there’s bad runs and good runs so don’t freak out, get disappointed, or cancel if there’s a bad run or a few suites of bad runs, totally normal, and I’m guilty of that, but with the first wave I’m honestly leaning towards severe weather, second still has potential and many...
southernwx.com
gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8249600.pngezgif-4-00a64943f79c.gifgfs-deterministic-se-snow_72hr-8163200.pnggfs_T2ma_us_63.pnggfs_T2m_seus_63.png
 
00z Euro 12/4
VA storm

Wintry - December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

If we could have shoved that +PNA back west where it belongs this could have been a really big deal. It really is a shame. Good looking wave timing honestly.
southernwx.com
06z EPS and NAM

Wintry - December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

congrats VA!
southernwx.com
12z NAM
Fairly Good snow in NC:

Wintry - December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

You must have misunderstood me, SE with precip, so worse. Still some flurries on some members though Do you got the ensemble panels ? Weathermodels loads it so slow
southernwx.com
 
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12z GFS 12/4
Bogus ZR/IP totals

Ostrich December

This is different, that’s at 10mb and it shows warming of the Stratospheric polar vortex/some displacement, this is good for winter weather lovers as it would likely bring a TPV along with it, 500mb is different If the -EPO goes up as shown on the GEFS, that'll shut off the favorable wave...
southernwx.com
gfs-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1607083200-1608357600-1608465600-40.gifgfs-deterministic-se-total_snow_kuchera-8465600.pnggfs-deterministic-nc-total_snow_kuchera-8465600.png

gfs-deterministic-se-frzr_total-8465600.pnggfs-deterministic-se-sleet_total-8465600.png
 
18z GFS 12/8
Big dog GFS member!!

Ostrich December

The most significant bout of negative nao is lurking next week imo, but details regarding its duration and intensity remain to be seen. NAO predictability is so dependent on individual cyclonic wave breaks in the N Atlantic jet that are rarely if ever easily predictable beyond 5-6 days which...
southernwx.com
gfs-deterministic-carolinas-instant_ptype-1607450400-1608336000-1608422400-80.gifgfs-deterministic-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-8444000.pnggfs-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-8357600.pnggfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8379200.png
 
12z CMC 12/9
Pretty big dog mixed precip storm!

Ostrich December

The stubborn a** Alaskan Vortex made whatever -EPO we were gonna see in the long range nearly non-existent. One day dip barely below zero is all that's left of this. Is there any chance get that AK vortex the retrograde a bit towards the Aleutians and maybe allow some heights to build in...
southernwx.com
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