if we’re gonna go the other way, I’m all in on this !!! 
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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
No, actually the ridge to the west of that ruins everything. If it's weaker, then there will be more troughing in the EC.
Well it seems like that TPV slows down which allows the ridge to buzzsaw around the Aleutians, that’s what I meant
Went from extreme cold to severe weather 
Delayed but not denied 
What's the word I'm looking for.....oh, oof. Lol delayed, not denied yet
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Like this look at day 9
That TPV is gonna eventually move East, but it’s gonna take some time, wouldn’t shock me if it takes longer
Here it comes again...
znel52
Member
I have a feeling delayed is going to turn into denied but if the Euro is showing it at 192 maybe there is still a small chance. I'll believe it when my teeth are chattering lol.
Jessy89
Member
Euro way to surpassed valentines weekend
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whatalife
Moderator
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Once we get that western ridge it’ll boot it out of there
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If I somehow managed to get 2 events of near 2 days of snowfall like the Dec. 2017 and this event so close together I'm going to play the lottery and use those dates as my #s
This pattern always seem to be 7-9 days away and with models treading warmer and warmer, I wouldn't be that surprised if this "great pattern"/"cold snap" just doesn't come at all. We been through this before where models looked great for cold/Snow, but completely backed off in the 5-9 day range.
More like you watch weather models let us continue to dangle the carrot every 8-10 days out
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
I'll take this look all day 
Jessy89
Member
There’s the storm on euro just suppressed not bad at this range
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Southern Track
Member
Amazingly how similar it looks like the GFS at 240.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Temps in mid 20s in NC, 850s -5c. Could go away next run, but the same general look on GFS.
That's a beautiful look to me. 850 low is over SW Louisiana at this time too.
There’s the storm on euro just suppressed not bad at this range
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whatalife
Moderator
It may be 7-10 days away. BUT the models are all picking up on a major winter storm for this time period. So I’ll take my chances. Plus the models know February 13th is my 40th birthday. So what could possibly go wrong! LOL!
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Only an eternity away, folks
If it went any further, this look would pop a sfc low. Very similar to @Webberweather53's composites.
The difference this year though is that once we get inside 5 days, the temperatures trend colder.
climo says Feb 10th-15th is a favored period in South Carolina also. Would match up perfectly.
We gotta wait till that TPV detaches and retrogrades a bit, And that trough near HI to move East, things are gonna change here, TPVs are hard to forecast 
lots of EPS members have a light event 
Shaggy
Member
This may be whamby material and if so mods please move it.
We all need to remember models can and sometimes will lose good looks in the medium range. This could happen here and these clown maps will have been burned into our hearts and dreams. Lets remember to keep that perspective moving forward and temper any hope until we get inside that 120-144 hr mark.
We all need to remember models can and sometimes will lose good looks in the medium range. This could happen here and these clown maps will have been burned into our hearts and dreams. Lets remember to keep that perspective moving forward and temper any hope until we get inside that 120-144 hr mark.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Many of the really big snowstorms in the SE US usually feature significant icing somewhere.
Even for the historic Feb 1973 storm where up to 24" fell in Rimini, most places within and just southeast of the heaviest axis of snow like Myrtle Beach, Charleston, & Georgetown, had a big ice storm before the precip changed over to heavy snow.
HugeSnowStick
Member
Yes, exactly like what was supposed to happen this Sunday where a few days ago it had a low of 11 at KATL.
That is 2 runs of the euro with some wintry around here and the GFS showing at times. I know it will change a million times, but holy hell....Thats a nice site to see. Honestly....WEBB, this is an almost IDEAL pattern for wide-spread overrunning snow/ice. You have shown that on maps already as well.
Shaggy
Member
1986 I am in the 6th grade. One day we are in the halls in the duck and cover as tornado warnings blare and then a day or 2 later we get out for heavy snow.
lol even in early feb 2014 we dumped out west 
Does anyone remember what day we started seeing the Jan 3rd, 2018 storm emerge? I remember the Euro showed it first. I'd go back and look, but I was seeing if anyone remembered off the top of their head. Seems like it was around Dec 27th
Thanks for posting this. I feel less weeniesish keeping an eye on the NAM thinking this weekend could sneak up on me even here in Ga.
I like it but will try to keep my expectations low. The inevitable NW jog seems to occur a lot more NW than it once did.
12z Euro Monday was 967 at d6/7 over Vermont, now it is almost non existent with any system another reason we aren't seeing a massive cold blast