Well I will take what todays GFS is showing and euro last night run....
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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Gfs is fairly close to the 0z Euro tbh
They both flip the PNA positive/develop split flow, that’s what I’m banking on
The gfs evolution really shows how you can get snow on the front of a cold shot then stay cold.
I know we're talking about a potential storm/cold that's about 10 days away, but it's nice to see the CMC still showing the cold outbreak around the Valentine's Day weekend.
Flotown
Member
Canadian has something around the same time ...But not nowhere near as epic as gfs DANGGGG
LovingGulfLows
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According to this run, 850mb at my location is literally at freezing and precip is only about 60-80 miles south. Hmmmm....
NCSNOW
Member
Sunday is real close. Has been , but nothing has meshed perfect on the runs. Probably want, but its to close not to dig into every cycle. It was a big hit last weekend,went MA, now is back the past couple of days as just wide right by a hair.
RVD
Meteorology Student
Maybe, but by the next frame/6 hrs precip has moved out and we've actually warmed a lot aloft to a really marginal warm nose vs. the colder look aloft at hour 90. You can see here how the profile is already isothermal from 850-950 mb, so I doubt without some heavy precip we'd be able to push that all the way to the surface.
Surface winds are also really weak here, because the low pressure is so far offshore and its circulation is really small. Without that we're not going to get the sort of crashing changeover that we saw with the last system. Related to that, the 850mb circ. is also compact/open with winds at that height never really getting a northerly component, hence why we warm up so much. The best way to fix these problems is to hope for a slight NW trend/stronger low, that maybe doesn't have such a compact circulation. Not really sure what determines the size of the circulation though.
ATLwxfan
Member
SouthSideYankee
Member
If anything they will trend N/NW
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
CMC similiar, but much more ice
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
After showing a good storm around the 11th before.
Stormlover
Member
-------- if that GFS storm comes to fruition that would make up for all the heart break over the recent years .. glad to see something fun in the medium range .. but let’s keep watching Sunday ... it’s way more marginal than I thought ... literally one small tweak and it’s a paste bomb
Flotown
Member
well not as epic with snow anyway..lol
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
GEFS?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Who’s got the Icon ensembles?
NWMSGuy
Member
Member 9 of the GEFS looks like a nasty ice storm. modernweenie
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Too bad it's 10 days out. Hard to believe anything outside 5 days. But maybe this has a legit shot since this timeframe has been showing up on the models off and on lately.
Stormlover
Member
not even close
Delayed but not denied 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
First thing I see when I open this thread back up is the GFS trying to drop 20" over mi casa w/ several days in a row of snow... alrighty then lol. Gimme Feb 1973 except further N ?
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
The overall look looks similar if you look at the individuals...
Nice look. It's 10-11 days out, so don't expect to see 5-inch means.
LickWx
Member
I sorta lost , I was pretty certain the cold was coming . Though I won as well because I had some skepticism while everyone else shut down the notion of things not getting cold lol. @Myfrotho704_ got burned !
Edit : burn fro ! Time to pack up for Kansas
Nomanslandva
Member
It's Feb so don't forget about sun angle too
Good look but dang back to day 8-10 
Snownut
Member
That's the prime time in this pattern for something to happen.
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The great board wide storm may be delayed ... but the storm for NC at least looks to be possible for our Sunday system .. KEEP AN EYE
Shocked it isn’t in VA yet, give it tomorrow
Stormlover
Member
and the dew point ;-)It's Feb so don't forget about sun angle too
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z GFS was almost verbatim the historic SE US overrunning event composite I shared on here yesterday
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Deleted member 1449
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Six day total snowfall accumulation from the 12Z UKMET.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Six day total snowfall accumulation from the 12Z UKMET.
Time to lay down the white carpet.
Yeah, if we get more precip and it doesn’t jump too far NW to VA, that looks like a slop storm to me, kind of like the last one.