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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

GFS run would give everyone the added cold from the snowpack that would be laid down, in addition to the brisk winds making the windchills insane for most.
 
WxGSO said:
Geez, if you hang your hopes on each individual long range model run, you will go insane. It's pointless. The problem is, many only take into account a model run which fits their narrative (cold and snowy) taking it to the bank as gospel. Then when an alternate run comes about and destroys the narrative, then it's the end of the world. Ensembles are what I prefer to focus on. ALL the globals have been like a pogo stick this winter and can't be trusted more than 5 days, if that long.
In cases where big cold shots sweep across the country, it seems, in my limited memory, it is often delayed but not denied. Sort of like slow moving lava.
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I agree with everything you just said. Also something to add is that while the big push of Arctic air may be coming in the 2nd half of next week instead of the early in the week, I wouldn’t be shocked to start seeing models even cool things some early in the week... I’m not buying near 70 like the 12z GFS or anything close to it. 3 days ago temperatures here we’re supposed to be in the mid to upper 60s on Friday, now it’s looking like low 50s. We’ve seen warmups get muted like that all season. Obviously it’s a model bias in not recognizing the strength of blocking during certain time ranges and wanting to pump up the SER, but when it does recognize the strength of the block, it mutes the SER
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yikes View attachment 70570
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The models can’t handle the arctic cold mass! It’s so unusual, it’s so cold, they can’t compute it! They will flip flop horribly, till it gets closer! Think New Years 2017, I believe? Models had a horrible time with that
 
Biggest thing to take away is a winter storm is likely within the next 2 weeks. It just depends on when we can get the cold air to finally drive southeast. One thing to note is a 1060 MB high going to be coming down? Likely not, 1045 - 1050 is more likely when a strong HP finally slides south which would push heavier moisture further north. Looks like if you live between I40 and I20 things look promising for some form of a big winter storm at some point in the next 2 week timeframe.
 
Stormlover said:
Hello Birmingham...I see you there Storm! lol View attachment 70605
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iGRXY said:
Biggest thing to take away is a winter storm is likely within the next 2 weeks. It just depends on when we can get the cold air to finally drive southeast. One thing to note is a 1060 MB high going to be coming down? Likely not, 1045 - 1050 is more likely when a strong HP finally slides south which would push heavier moisture further north. Looks like if you live between I40 and I20 things look promising for some form of a big winter storm at some point in the next 2 week timeframe.
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Yes, yes, yes...that's the key point to take away from this, at this point.
 
I'd be careful on 10 day clown maps. The big take away here is a decent storm around or close to Valentine's Day. It was projected a bit earlier (mid next week) but has slid out on the calendar. Hopefully this is accurate and will be supported by other models on future runs.

As also mentioned, not buying the high temps early next week but also believing now there really is no supportive cold air (outside the mtns) for the Sunday precip.

All that said in order to get the arctic cold blast in here think we may have to endure a quick brief surge in temps (SER) for the new pattern to dig in.
 
Probably would've been a hard tightrope to walk with out losing some cold air, but a little bit stronger/more closed off and this would've popped a (stronger) coastal low on the way out... note the 850 mb circulation doesn't even hit the Atlantic until around hour 264. Could've easily added 12-24 hours and 6+" for central and eastern NC.
coastal.gif
 
SD said:
You'd think we could beat it with melting and decent rates
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Not with southerly surface winds like in that sounding. Probably a good amount of warm air advection at the surface to counteract any cooling from melting.
 
on that last GFS run, the snow/sleet line is -10C at 925mb back over MS, LA, and TX. quite the warm nose lol. but it actually kinda makes sense due to the insane amount of WAA needed to saturate the column with that strong of a HP

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