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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Oh Crap!!!
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That pattern around D10 on the GEFS has a few tinges of feb 2014, arguably better with a huge ridge above AK and more blocking to direct CP flow further south
Guess what happened a lot that month ? Overrunning.View attachment 69922View attachment 69925
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Very important to remember... we didn’t even have a -NAO in February 2014 for that storm so we literally had to have just the perfect timing to get the storm we did.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The SER is rapidly pushing the 850 line northward.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think that has to do with the TPV. The western part of the double barrel just sort of pinwheels in an unfavorable location. This is basically the same story we saw with the last setup: we really want ridging or nothing there with a trough/PV piece further east instead of doing... whatever this is.
floop-ecmwf_full-2021020112.500hv.conus.gif
Thankfully the orientation, strength, location of these pieces over Canada are incredibly fluid and hard to predict: these details will change, but we look pretty set to get a big dump of cold air followed by some chances for a big storm.
 
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