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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Webberweather53 said:
Many of the really big snowstorms in the SE US usually feature significant icing somewhere.

Even for the historic Feb 1973 storm where up to 24" fell in Rimini, most places within and just southeast of the heaviest axis of snow like Myrtle Beach, Charleston, & Georgetown, had a big ice storm before the precip changed over to heavy snow.

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This was utter torture for me, I was a total weather weenie. I was 15 in 1973, yes I am old, lol. But just 60 miles south of Atlanta, the cutoff was amazing, although ATL was still reeling from the massive ice storm a month earlier, we were without power for 16 days, it really was not fun after a few days even at my age then.
 
HugeSnowStick said:
This was utter torture for me, I was a total weather weenie. I was 15 in 1973, yes I am old, lol, But just 60 miles south of Atlanta the cutoff was amazing, although ATL was still reeling from the massive ice storm a month earlier, we were without power for 16 days, really was not fun after a few days even at my age then.
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Sounds like pretty much everyone in GA scored that winter. Although I would have much rather had the snow than the ice.
 
Robert West said:
Does anyone remember what day we started seeing the Jan 3rd, 2018 storm emerge? I remember the Euro showed it first. I'd go back and look, but I was seeing if anyone remembered off the top of their head. Seems like it was around Dec 27th
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December 27 sounds right. The ensembles had been hinting at that timeframe, but the Euro started latching onto the idea of a storm. It actually trended SE for a few days and then corrected NW the last 36 hours which is what most systems have been doing this year.
 
HugeSnowStick said:
This was utter torture for me, I was a total weather weenie. I was 15 in 1973, yes I am old, lol. But just 60 miles south of Atlanta, the cutoff was amazing, although ATL was still reeling from the massive ice storm a month earlier, we were without power for 16 days, it really was not fun after a few days even at my age then.
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I was a little boy living in New Orleans for both the 63 and 73 storms. 63 was epic. 73 was only around an inch at my house, but epic nonetheless for N.O. The only forecast tools I had were a thermometer and an AM radio. When the newscaster said it was snowing in Galveston, I knew I had a chance LOL. Was so nice after having just missed a with a couple of 33 and rainstorms there at the time. One of which surely was the massive Atlanta ice storm.
 
So it's looking like we warm up big time before we even get a chance to get cold. Might hit the 70s for a lot of folks. Would sound about right, normally that's the way it works before a major Winter storm around these parts.
 
Robert West said:
So it's looking like we warm up big time before we even get a chance to get cold. Might hit the 70s for a lot of folks. Would sound about right, normally that's the way it works before a major Winter storm around these parts.
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If we can dump out west a bit more then the euro then we could get some solid thunderstorms
 
Robert West said:
So it's looking like we warm up big time before we even get a chance to get cold. Might hit the 70s for a lot of folks. Would sound about right, normally that's the way it works before a major Winter storm around these parts.
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I do recall temps in the 70s and possibly low 80s for a couple days or so, as it was somewhat of a warmer winter than normal in '88-'89, and then we ended up with around 5 to 5 1/2" during a snowstorm in late February of '89.
 
In terms of temperatures the next 10 days, the GFS and the Euro are actually fairly close to each other the progression of things. Both want to surge a lot of mild air on Tuesday out ahead of the cold push and then are pretty close on temps after that. I do tend to doubt that temperatures got as mild as was being shown on Tuesday, simply because we’ve seen warm pushes get muted much of the winter the closer we get to verification, of course I also thought that models were being too extreme a few days ago with showing widespread single digits as well.
 
ColaSnow said:
I do recall temps in the 70s and possibly low 80s for a couple days or so, as it was somewhat of a warmer winter than normal in '88-'89, and then we ended up with around 5 to 5 1/2" during a snowstorm in late February of '89.
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That 2 week stretch in February 1989 was an absolute weather roller coaster. The Thursday going into President’s Day weekend, the CLT area was close to 80 then the next day say temperatures falling through the day with rain changing to sleet by that evening... Saturday was in the upper 20s with sleet/snow all day and into the evening. Sunday warmed back up into the 40s, rain and upper 30s on Presidents Day, then a mild day on Tuesday in the 60s, then Wednesday was in the 40s, then of course on Thursday, we were on the northern end of the snowstorm that got you. Then by the following Sunday it was back close to 70 again.
 
Broken024 said:
Yep. I haven't seen this kind of agreement at 200 hours+ since Feb 2014 (at least not that I recall).
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I was just about to mention that. For a general timeframe, the agreement that there is on the Ensembles and at times operational is very close to February 2014. That one was picked up and stayed there. Of course there was back and forth on precip type and temps, strength of storm and timing, but all in all we knew a week out that there would most likely be a significant hit.
 
The silver lining to this warming trend we're seeing in the short-range is we end up with a bigger cold dump in the longer term. The PV lobe has been trending slower because of the stronger N Pac wave train & -EPO that's enticing the other PV lobe in Alaska to slide SE and interact w/ the main one near Manitoba.

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We're actually trending towards a merger of these TPV lobes over the Canadian Rockies early next week, the models are gonna be all over the place for a while. It's also pretty evident even on the last few 12z EPS runs that the upstream changes over the N Pacific are largely to blame for the warming trend we've seen this weekend & early next week. We're essentially ending up w/ a slightly delayed, but much stronger arctic air mass thanks to the stronger -WPO this weekend. Big question will be how far south this air mass gets, but given the huge Baffin Bay block/west-based -NAO the SE ridge is likely gonna get beaten down eventually


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eddytur said:
Am I dreaming or do we have some model agreement on a valentines weekend storm lol

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I'd defer to the term "model agreement" to some of the mets around here (Eric @Webberweather53 & Chris (@deltadog03). But as others have said, I think the idea is close to being on the table if it isn't already. Still quite a ways out though.
 
packfan98 said:
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Chazwin said:
I don’t really think it was ever forecasted for this weekend either more like Monday/Tuesday arrival pushed to more like Thursday now
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For this area it was showing a Saturday night arrival with hi temps around 12 degrees On sunday. The gfs kept showing this until yesterday and now instead of highs in the low teens on Sunday reality has set in. Either way still a good chance of a decent storm or two this February. As I said earlier this pattern beats the heck out of the last few February’s.
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I guess this pattern we're heading into is somewhat more uncommon? I have always heard the expression "when it's warm in Alaska, it's cold in the lower 48, and vice versa", particularly from TV mets such as on TWC or even Accuweather. I guess that saying only holds true when the ridge builds over Alaska, thus pushing down the cold further to the east. But this looks like an expansive amount of cold tumbling down, per the model runs so far.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
The silver lining to this warming trend we're seeing in the short-range is we end up with a bigger cold dump in the longer term. The PV lobe has been trending slower because of the stronger N Pac wave train & -EPO that's enticing the other PV lobe in Alaska to slide SE and interact w/ the main one near Manitoba.

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Maybe all of this cold comes together around mid February and we get a fab February 2015 part 2! That Was one of my favorite winters just due to the amount of events in such a short time and how cold it was. Snow was covering the ground here for 2 straight weeks which is unheard of for anytime of the winter let alone late February.
 
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