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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Fwiw, roughly half of the 0z EPS suite including the control (25 of 51 members) are showing an overrunning event along the I-40 or I-20 corridors between Feb 10-15th. There's still a lot that can & often does go wrong this far out, but there's a legit signal trying to emerge in/around this time frame, which makes sense given the pattern that's coming.

The 5-day snow mean between 18z Feb 9 & 18z Feb 14 is >1" along & north of the I-20 corridor & a lot of this isn't because of one or two big members.

1612262123810.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, roughly half of the 0z EPS suite including the control (25 of 51 members) are showing an overrunning event along the I-40 or I-20 corridors between Feb 10-15th. There's still a lot that can & often does go wrong this far out, but there's a legit signal trying to emerge in/around this time frame, which makes sense given the pattern that's coming.

The 5-day snow mean between 18z Feb 9 & 18z Feb 14 is >1" along & north of the I-20 corridor & a lot of this isn't because of one or two big members.

View attachment 70234
Click to expand...

Here's the 1"+ probs

1612262518232.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Most EPS members have basically locked onto the storm this weekend shooting north to the mid-Atlantic & lower OH valley. Perhaps some snow for the mountains and/or far NW piedmont of NC but that's about it

View attachment 70230


View attachment 70231
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And yet FFC went more bullish in its overnight package and introduced SN into the Sat night wording for my grid. Go figure. ?

7779B487-87F4-4DF2-9DE4-43F9307E8899.jpeg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, roughly half of the 0z EPS suite including the control (25 of 51 members) are showing an overrunning event along the I-40 or I-20 corridors between Feb 10-15th. There's still a lot that can & often does go wrong this far out, but there's a legit signal trying to emerge in/around this time frame, which makes sense given the pattern that's coming.

The 5-day snow mean between 18z Feb 9 & 18z Feb 14 is >1" along & north of the I-20 corridor & a lot of this isn't because of one or two big members.

View attachment 70234
Click to expand...
If this was to happen, it would follow up to a heavily favored climo period for us in SC. For whatever reason, the 10th-15th of Feb range has always been a good period to get Winter weather down here.
 
It’s probably not going to be extreme cold next week. However the players are still on the field. And pattern could still produce. The euro is more solid then GFS. Gfs changes very dramatically run to run


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