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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

It’s like every day the models come up with some sort of different evolution, it’s super irritating, I know models aren’t suppose to do well at that range but it seems like it’s sticking around that range forever, not moving, constantly throwing different looks at us, let’s see what the EPS does
 
Today's ECMWF run shows a lot of ice without there being much of a CAD in place in the Carolinas. It's something that's not as frequently associated with ice at least around here but it can happen from time to time. Verbatim the 12z ECMWF is the kind of setup you'd see in the southern plains when they get large ice storms.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s like every day the models come up with some sort of different evolution, it’s super irritating, I know models aren’t suppose to do well at that range but it seems like it’s sticking around that range forever, not moving, constantly throwing different looks at us, let’s see what the EPS does
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The fact we have a a lot of interactions between blocking and multiple tpv's will only make this worse. At this point expect changes with every run.
 
Jessy89 said:
Our cold keeps getting delayed to day 10. That’s a real issue


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Today's EPS looks like it has improved by day 6-7, dropping the TPV a little further south in the northern plains and the wave near Atlantic Canada is deeper = suppressed SE ridge
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
They haven’t really trended worse, but into more disagreement, which is expected
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They all showed a big snow storm yesterday. They are not showing that today. It's either cold rain or more ice and less snow. That's worse to most folks.
 
Brick Tamland said:
They all showed a big snow storm yesterday. They are not showing that today. It's either cold rain or more ice and less snow. That's worse to most folks.
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Ice (IP/ZR) is a nearly inevitable part of big dog SE US overrunning events for a majority of places because most of our precip is forced by warm advection, which leads to warm noses. The only locations that get mostly snow are those that are on the northern fringe of the precip. You risk not getting anything at all if you want all snow in setups like this


Brick Tamland said:
How is that Euro run better than the big snow storm it had the last run?
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Sure I guess the operational was verbatim "worse" but it honestly still looks totally fine to me overall. The ensemble improved a bit which holds more weight than single operational runs.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ice (IP/ZR) is a nearly inevitable part of big dog SE US overrunning events for a majority of places because most of our precip is forced by warm advection, which leads to warm noses. The only locations that get mostly snow are those that are on the northern fringe of the precip




Sure I guess the operational was verbatim "worse" but it honestly still looks totally fine to me overall. The ensemble improved a bit which holds more weight than single operational runs.
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Webb, do you think we have a chance of seeing this storm gain a snowier look to it, or will it likely stay more of an icy threat for those of us back to the west? If it materializes obviously.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ice (IP/ZR) is a nearly inevitable part of big dog SE US overrunning events for a majority of places because most of our precip is forced by warm advection, which leads to warm noses. The only locations that get mostly snow are those that are on the northern fringe of the precip. You risk not getting anything at all if you want all snow in setups like this




Sure I guess the operational was verbatim "worse" but it honestly still looks totally fine to me overall. The ensemble improved a bit which holds more weight than single operational runs.
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Eric, you can correct me if I’m wrong, but La Niña favors mixed bags if I remember correctly.

I mean, again, I can count on a hand big dog storms that were all snow. Even 1/1988 had sleet along 85.


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Lets say this solution held.

I think the areas that actually get nuked with ice is the I-20 corridor to the NC border in SC along with NE GA. 925 and 850 temps in NC seemingly support more sleet than ZR.


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Parker said:
Webb, do you think we have a chance of seeing this storm gain a snowier look to it, or will it likely stay more of an icy threat for those of us back to the west? If it materializes obviously.
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Yeah we have just as much of a chance as we do getting cold rain or even thunderstorms at this point. It really just depends on where the vortex is in relation to our southern stream wave when it's over the SW US. The further south & east it is, the more areas on this board will see snow, but I think sleet will probably be unavoidable in almost any case.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s like every day the models come up with some sort of different evolution, it’s super irritating, I know models aren’t suppose to do well at that range but it seems like it’s sticking around that range forever, not moving, constantly throwing different looks at us, let’s see what the EPS does
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To me this is why you can’t get to caught up in op runs either way. Ensembles have pointing to a strong storm signal in the 2/11-14 timeframe for about a week now and it’s been fairly steady. Obviously details will have to be ironed out, but there are tendencies we’ve been able to see for most of the winter. Inside 72-96 hours the SER gets muted and the TPV in Canada tends to push SE due to the blocking from the -NAO all of which are good things.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Today's EPS looks like it has improved by day 6-7, dropping the TPV a little further south in the northern plains and the wave near Atlantic Canada is deeper = suppressed SE ridge
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That’s what we need. As you said, we need the TPV further E or SE over the lakes. That little bit shuts me out but really delays the good cold push and makes things more icy and rainy vs snowy and allows for NW trends
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah we have just as much of a chance as we do getting cold rain or even thunderstorms at this point. It really just depends on where the vortex is in relation to our southern stream wave when it's over the SW US. The further south & east it is, the more areas on this board will see snow, but I think sleet will probably be unavoidable in almost any case.
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I had a bunch of sleet in 1980.....we had it in Dec 2000.....and Dec 2010.....I will gladly take something like the 18Z GFS last night and give up 3-4" of that to sleet lol....in a lot of ways the sleet mixing in is usually when the giant flakes size and crazy rates happen, and when it went back snow we knew we had the real cold air then and ratios went up and it was all powder after that in all those storms.....
 
Webberweather53 said:
Today's ECMWF run shows a lot of ice without there being much of a CAD in place in the Carolinas. It's something that's not as frequently associated with ice at least around here but it can happen from time to time. Verbatim the 12z ECMWF is the kind of setup you'd see in the southern plains when they get large ice storms.
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I’m pretty certain that the February 1996 Ice/Sleet storm didn’t have much in the way of CAD and it had lows in the single digits in CLT after the storm like the Euro just showed.
 
BullCityWx said:
Eric, you can correct me if I’m wrong, but La Niña favors mixed bags if I remember correctly.

I mean, again, I can count on a hand big dog storms that were all snow. Even 1/1988 had sleet along 85.


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I haven't looked at the ENSO relationships to CAD too extensively, but I would probably tend to agree w/ this for a few reasons. To get CAD here in the SE US, you usually need -PNA/southwestern US troughs to trigger height rises/warm advection in the SE US and those more frequently occur in La Nina. La Ninas also are more often associated w/ high-latitude N Pacific blocking (esp -EPO) which makes N America colder overall & for ice you definitely need cold air in place first prior to the arrival of precip.

Yeah and the temps were in the upper 10s-lower 20s for much of that event and we still had significant amounts of sleet. It's extremely hard to avoid not getting IP at some pt in overrunning events.
 
Webberweather53 said:
She's a beaut Clark. Ideally, to give the board the biggest hit possible, instead of the center of the vortex being on the north shore of Lake Superior, get it down to around Montreal or north-central New England, and then we're really talking.

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Starting to creep it into the medium range on the EPS #babysteps
 
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