SnowNiner
Member
Looks like we've got a ways to go then. I know it's possible, but is it likely? Most all of the ensembles keep the PV around the same spot.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Looks like we've got a ways to go then. I know it's possible, but is it likely? Most all of the ensembles keep the PV around the same spot.
Downeastnc
Member
Isnt that how the trend played out last week with our little snowstorm.....
Cadi40
Member
From a tentative stand point the moisture for our potential Winter Storm next week appears to be extremely slow moving. Whoever it is favored for snow in this setup will be getting quite a bit of it.
One thing I like for the overall pattern leading into this potential as well the next couple weeks is the parade of high pressures that seem to be setting up between southern Canada and across the pole into Siberia... looks to be plenty of cold air to tap into
I agree fro. This is a great look for most of NC and all you can hope for at this range in the ensemble run
This is a weenie EPS run, the pattern after ?
That pacific jet ext ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I wouldn't say it's unlikely at this point or even probable, these wound up TPVs are hard to forecast more than 2-3 days out & we wouldn't need much of a change to get us there.
Yeah that's pretty much what happened and the GFS/GEFS were way too slow & north w/ it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Man, if we manage to get legit snow or sleet sometime next week, single digit lows are pretty much a lock for many.
I mean this is just impressive, now this is the coldest mean I’ve seen, many members last week we’re sorta spread out which hampered it, guess there’s more agreement (for now) with many EPS members
This would actually be a very dangerous and costly scenario .. almost scary tbh... people would be out of power for a while and with the temps that come in after ... I pray we get this ice out of here
Ice is gonna be a huge issue, yikes
To WEBB's point, and what I have been saying (and others) here is what we have with the last 3 op runs of the EURO. If you want to call it, todays 12z run was the "worse" run out of the 3. Notice where the TPV is....that's where we really don't want to see it. LAst nights run was the ultimate, right? Today's run "drags" its heels a bit with the cold push.
***Time stamp is for THUR 12z** about the time we need SHI* in place to get booming!**
12z yesterday
00z last night
12z run today
***Time stamp is for THUR 12z** about the time we need SHI* in place to get booming!**
12z yesterday
00z last night
12z run today
That’s a mean. 
How did NC fair during the big 1994 storm? That is the only time I recall ice at my house without CAD.
BufordWX
Member
? 
MichaelJ
Member
We need a couple of things to change for most of the South to get snow. Verbatim this indicates a lot of ice in Bama, northern Ga, Upstate and Eastern 2/3 of NC. If we (as Webb said) can get the TPV to move east and slightly south, and get the trough in the PAC to move more East of Hawaii, then more of us will get more snow and less ice. The next 2-3 days we all need to check and see if there is any movement east/south of where it (the TPV) is currently progged to be. The Euro does have a tendency to hold back the lows in the SW too long (which would benefit us in this situation) so that would also influence how much cold air can arrive before the precip onset
It was a fairly big event for the Piedmont and Foothills... I was 17 and the house I grew up in in Concord had around an inch of sleet/snow and 1/3 inch of ice accrual. That was after highs the previous day were in the mid 70s
From NWS BHM
The forecast becomes more interesting as we approach the latter
portion of next week as more moisture moves across the area during
the day Thursday and persists through much of the day on Friday.
Meanwhile, colder air is expected to filter into the area from
the northwest with freezing temperatures possible along and
northwest of Interstate 59 on Thursday morning followed by
potentially freezing temperatures generally to the northwest of
the Interstate 85 corridor. As with recent forecasts, confidence
remains quite low during this time frame with poor consistency and
continuity between model families and within ensemble members.
The best advice is to check back for later updates for this period
of the forecast as we evaluate additional modeling and work to
establish better trends and consistency within the model families
and ensemble members.
The forecast becomes more interesting as we approach the latter
portion of next week as more moisture moves across the area during
the day Thursday and persists through much of the day on Friday.
Meanwhile, colder air is expected to filter into the area from
the northwest with freezing temperatures possible along and
northwest of Interstate 59 on Thursday morning followed by
potentially freezing temperatures generally to the northwest of
the Interstate 85 corridor. As with recent forecasts, confidence
remains quite low during this time frame with poor consistency and
continuity between model families and within ensemble members.
The best advice is to check back for later updates for this period
of the forecast as we evaluate additional modeling and work to
establish better trends and consistency within the model families
and ensemble members.
Found this on the CPC site explaining their thoughts on the heavy snow risk.
A strong cold front is forecast to push well south into the Gulf of Mexico later next week with an increasing chance that a wave of low pressure develops along the front by Feb 12. If a surface low develops, anomalously cold temperatures would support snow to the northwest of its track. A negatively tilted 500-hPa trough across the east-central U.S. along with subtropical ridging over the southwestern Atlantic supports a continued risk of winter weather across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. The week-2 analog tools (Canadian and ECMWF ensemble means) imply this outcome with elevated probabilities of above normal precipitation for these areas. Based on these factors, a likely outbreak of Arctic Air, and 24-hour precipitation amounts of a 0.25 inch or more, liquid equivalent, from the ensemble means at varying daily intervals, a slight risk of heavy snow (2 to 4 inches, or greater) is posted for the Piedmont areas of the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and mid-Atlantic.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,654
- Reaction score
- 10,791
I was reading this at first thinking it was for areas west of yall. Let me find one for us deep southerns
Lots of blue on this map!
**Valid for FRI 00z**
look how much we lost the good cold push from yesterdays run, last nights run to today. Good news the high looks about as strong, just need the TPV to be further SE....VERY workable
12z
00z
12z today
look how much we lost the good cold push from yesterdays run, last nights run to today. Good news the high looks about as strong, just need the TPV to be further SE....VERY workable
12z
00z
12z today
That’s basically what happened with the February 1996 storm... for the CLT area we had freezing rain with heavy icing all day on the 2nd, then in the evening we had that great 2-3 hour burst of sleet that has thunder for much of it and temperatures dropped from the low 30s to the low 20s almost instantly... puddles of water in my yard froze instantly and got a couple inches of sleet on top of them. Then a light snow (dandruff size) started to fall that continued for about the next 36 hours. CLT( at the airport) went above freezing for just a couple of hours in the afternoon during the height of the of the freezing rain on the 2nd... then dropped back below freezing and didn’t get back above until the afternoon of the 6th. Most of that time was below 25 as well.
iGRXY
Member
Still think if you're east of the apps in the CAD regions, you are probably in the best spot for a winter storm. Problem is I fear it'll be ICE instead of snow right now. Good news is energy in Canada has trended SE most of the winter and the SER has been muted and we are right in the time frame where models generally have tried to flex it.
It looks like though that some CAD is trying to set up for NC and upstate SC. That could be very important with the amount of snowpack over the NE now
iGRXY
Member
That's what I think would happen if we flex the ridge on the east coast like we saw today. CAD would show up and with the amount of snow pack to our north I think it would be a very bad ice storm. But hopefully we will trend back to the snow storm with the TPV getting out ahead.
Jessy89
Member
If it could be less amped the warm nose wouldn’t be there as much
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Even with the ice storm look, it has the look of one that could be an Ice/Sleet changing snow type scenario. The cold push from the NW is still there and if CAD developed, with the snowpack up north, you would think it would be fairly strong and would set things up for a transfer to a coastal pretty far south.
iGRXY
Member
It definitely could be a 2 day type storm with the first 2/3 being a lot of ICE and the back 1/3 being snow. Something like a 3/4 inch - 1" type ice accrual with 2-5" backend snow.
How do I screw this up 
Its near impossible....or is it. ?
GFS looks even worse 
lol
BelmontWX79
Member
Well the Kiss My A$$ model aka The Korean is on board! The southern half of these accumulations is mostly ice. Not really taking this seriously I just think its crazy all the model data there is now. Back when I first started weather model nerding all we had was the NGM, ETA, the Aviation, maybe the GEM, and the EURO. Back then the EURO really was king but it was only ran at 12Z and was limited to 500mb heights, 850Temp winds, and MSLP unless you had a lot of extra cash. Not really sure what we used to do waiting 12 hours between model runs. Anyways I'm just dating myself back to the discussion...