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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

HSVweather said:
I’ll never forgot that one. No power for a week, watched pine trees falling and burning on power lines out the back of the house. I lived on the state line back then.
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You are too young, but the ice storm in North GA ATL 1973, was one in a 100 year event. You have no idea how scary this one was, it was literally a war zone that lasted for 39 hours. In many areas it changed the landscape.
 
Is it just me or has the gfs flip flop more this year then any other year?


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HugeSnowStick said:
You are too young, but the ice storm in North GA ATL 1973, was one in a 100 year event. You have no idea how scary this one was, it was literally a war zone that lasted for 39 hours. In many areas it changed the landscape.
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It sounds like the 2002 ice storm in the Charlotte metro. We had worse damage to the tree canopy and power infrastructure than Hugo.


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SWVAwxfan said:
Talk about a cold bleep Valentines day. Somehow, Columbia only manages 17.
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That to me has as much chance of happening as what it’s showing for the storm on Friday and Saturday now or the 2 foot snow amounts it was showing for me yesterday at 12z.
 
KyloG said:


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I’m NOt picking on KyloG . Using this post as an example . Keep in mind we have members stretching from Arizona to NC so just because a run looks bad or trends the wrong way it does. It mean it won’t work out for some of our members . Seeing a lot posts like “ wrong way “ this won’t work” and so forth . Make sure you notice people’s location . We all need different things to happen unless we get the perfect setup ( which I doubt ) where we all cash in


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SWVAwxfan said:
Agree 100%. Not sure how my SC born and raised bleep would handle -20. Lol
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Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t mind experiencing temperatures like that during the day simply because of the absolute anomalous nature of it, but come on the... the only three days in CLT weather history that I can find that had low to mid teens during the middle of the day were- 1899 Southeast Blizzard, 1979 President’s Day storm, and 1985 Arctic Outbreak
 
Storm5 said:
I’m NOt picking on KyloG . Using this post as an example . Keep in mind we have members stretching from Arizona to NC so just because a run looks bad or trends the wrong way it does. It mean it won’t work out for some of our members . Seeing a lot posts like “ wrong way “ this won’t work” and so forth . Make sure you notice people’s location . We all need different things to happen unless we get the perfect setup ( which I doubt ) where we all cash in


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Good point...that’s my bad. I deleted the post.
 
Chazwin said:
Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t mind experiencing temperatures like that during the day simply because of the absolute anomalous nature of it, but come on the... the only three days in CLT weather history that I can find that had low to mid teens during the middle of the day were- 1899 Southeast Blizzard, 1979 President’s Day storm, and 1985 Arctic Outbreak
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Pretty sure Dec 1989 also had daytime Temps in the teens. Even KCAE didn't get out of the low 20s.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m surprised it’s not 70 degrees yet with most of these members given the trends on them View attachment 71307
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I’ll take this look over a week out. Plenty of good looks here. It’s basically the Euro, CMC, Icon vs gfs. I would think gfs will correct towards the euro. We have plenty of time here imo. Maybe our random piece of energy will drop out of Canada and help us this time rather than screw us over like last time.
 
Chazwin said:
I really wish I had saved more operational GFS runs over the years so that I could see what it showed at various timeframes leading up to winter storms... I really think it would be eye opening of just how off it’s been before. Some of the last 10 years I can remember a little... for example with the Christmas 2010 storm after actually picking up on that storm during the 8-10 day, it turned it into a cutter, then brought it back to a big storm for western and central NC during the 4-5 day, then squashed to miss us east during the 2-4 day before finally ending up fairly close to what actually verified the day before. I don’t bring that to say that this run is definitely not going to be reality, but to bring that a lot folks get wound up about this model that over the years is just plain out horrible in this timeframe
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Really the GFS does seem to do this a lot.....in the 4-7 day range it is often on a island by itself.....it also seems like the GFS does a good job of sniffing stuff out in the 8-10 day range only to make big changes away in the 5-7 day range, then it sit on that weird outlier solution for 4-5 runs before baby stepping back to the consensus ( the inevitable caving in ) .......I am holding on hope that since the Euro and GFS agreed in the 8-10 day range that they had a pretty decent grasp on the setup.....

The Christmas 2010 storm evolution was brutal but that last 24 hrs was so sweet......
 
BullCityWx said:
So the best model suite out there depicts a major winter storm along with some bitterly cold means.

But we’re sweating the GFS? The worst scoring model? The model that would be eating paste in the back of the class?


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The model that picked up on the Jan 28 storm first. But maybe it's doing the thing of losing a storm after showing it first and then bringing it back a couple of days later.
 
Musings from Griteater over on American:
I would certainly lean Euro/EPS on getting the big picture right out in time given the heavy high latitude blocking pattern etc, regardless of what outcome it is showing for us. Not too worried about the current GFS unless the UKMET/Euro go in that direction. I think the changes with the weekend storm are a bit separate (smaller scale features that all of the models are struggling with driving storm track changes).
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I just think we need to wait until 5 days out, everything will change, for all we know the system might honestly not exist, its way too early to be thinking anything, its a hint for the SE US, maybe something will happen, I know they are all showing a system, but IMO modeling has been horrible this year, they all latched on yesterday, I get it, it is just something to take note of, the only thing that interests me is almost all modeling having the same output, just something to watch how it trends
 
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