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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

BelmontWX79 said:
Well the Kiss My A$$ model aka The Korean is on board! The southern half of these accumulations is mostly ice. Not really taking this seriously I just think its crazy all the model data there is now. Back when I first started weather model nerding all we had was the NGM, ETA, the Aviation, maybe the GEM, and the EURO. Back then the EURO really was king but it was only ran at 12Z and was limited to 500mb heights, 850Temp winds, and MSLP unless you had a lot of extra cash. Not really sure what we used to do waiting 12 hours between model runs. Anyways I'm just dating myself back to the discussion...View attachment 71271
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Nothing like getting nuked w/ snow by the N Korean model
 
These cold pushes are never on time. That’s just the reality of it. More times than not, when a potent piece of arctic air pushes through, the Carolinas usually end up on the severe side. The boundary rarely if ever stalls east of the Appalachian mountains. Always west. Not sure why we thought this time would be different. Yet here we are.
 
That gfs run was an improvement imo. Pacific looked way better and gfs is still drastically changing the pieces pin wheeling around with the tpv. If you go run to run you can see the gfs emphasize random pieces of energy and the pacific just jumps around lol. Not sweating it yet. Until we get closer and these pieces of energy are sampled we have no clue how they interact with the tpv
 
I really wish I had saved more operational GFS runs over the years so that I could see what it showed at various timeframes leading up to winter storms... I really think it would be eye opening of just how off it’s been before. Some of the last 10 years I can remember a little... for example with the Christmas 2010 storm after actually picking up on that storm during the 8-10 day, it turned it into a cutter, then brought it back to a big storm for western and central NC during the 4-5 day, then squashed to miss us east during the 2-4 day before finally ending up fairly close to what actually verified the day before. I don’t bring that to say that this run is definitely not going to be reality, but to bring that a lot folks get wound up about this model that over the years is just plain out horrible in this timeframe
 
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