Avalanche
Member
I can't speak for ice, but slosh in the upper 20's can be bad. We are use to slosh when temps are marginal, but in the upper 20's, better stay home.
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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
HR96 the GFS is already East with the TPV vs 18z run
This is getting under hour 180 btw.....
I thought the ICON had a warm bias.
Lol GFS might massively fold
18z vs 00z
I'm not at all trying to be sarcastic or funny here. Should this be taken at all seriously? 0 degrees in Alabama by Friday morning?
What a wobbly model lol, but this run was much much better, notice less amplification of the Aleutian ridge 
Stormlover
Member
do what? it's a deep south storm too, what are you looking at?
18z vs 0z
Cary_Snow95
Member
Looks like it’s continuing to develop that energy that developed over the NE at 18z
To be fair, the minority of the board is located in areas further west. BHAM, ATL, CAE, GSP, RDU, CLT are either rain of ZR.
Avalanche
Member
If it were to take a northerly/NWerly trajectory, wouldn't it help to push that TPV SE a hair?
Stormlover
Member
No, to be fair stop acting like it's just a carolina board. This is a ,major event for many of us.
The TPV is further SE than 12z. 
old vs new
Avalanche
Member
The old in Saskatchewan. The new is International Falls. I will gladly take it!!!!
I'm scared to say so because I might jinx it, but this might end up being a better run.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Lol gfs is dropping a big piece of energy underneath the tpv. Doesn’t look anything like 18z
Not much of a SFC response yet but one more trend of the TPV like that should do it, That’s a icy look for the western southeast 
iGRXY
Member
Not going to count my chickens but the GFS looks so much better
ATLwxfan
Member
Glaciation about to unfold.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
JLL1973
Member
Could be a big run for the midsouth area as well
Cary_Snow95
Member
wtf is happening. Huge piece of energy dropping into to our shortwave and the tpv is able to get further out in front
The GFS actually kind of resembles the JMA.
ATLwxfan
Member
Oof, nevermind. It’s fine though, next run will be different. Signal is there and cold.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Avalanche
Member
TPV, don't go too far NE now!!! Wow, run to run differences.
Massive changes! IDK where it goes from here, but I suspect this is going to put down a LOT of frozen over the next 60 hours from there.
??? Ice, ice ice. Gonna be a long week of sleepless nights. ? ?
These run to run changes is exactly why you can’t get in your feelings over a run, man up and realize it’ll change each run
Stormlover
Member
Wow, what a mess 
GFS looks like it's trying to reload another storm after the first one .... 
Avalanche
Member
Will any energy come down on the trails of this? Cause I've seen that movie before, good ending.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Time for bed. But this further emphasis why living and dying on each run is silly. Gfs just completely changed. We are a long way from resolving these SWs
There's less SE ridge this run which is good news. 