That trough early on is key, the earlier it separates and the stronger it is, as it heads easy it pumps our -NAO ridge, and can get the second TPV stuck under given a stronger block in place
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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
1 more trend south and that look is money. Its nice to see a trend to colder vs a buffed SER.
Bro this is insane the medium range changes are literally pants nukingly awesome 
Goodness
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’ll cash out and see y’all in December.
Could this do something?
?
LovingGulfLows
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We did say we needed the SER to weaken on the models and it looks like it's happening. Get a wave to develop off the edge of the arctic air mass. Crazy thing is with the level of cold air coming in, I can see this continually trending south.
LickWx
Member
One run ago that was in the PNW. Eh. That’s some volatile model swinging .
whatalife
Moderator
Keep in mind on Thursday the GFS also showed something for this timeframe.
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I can't recall ever seeing such wild swings in continental sensible weather as the EMCF has demonstrated in the medium range as of late. Anything is on the table beyond day 5.
Big triple phase incoming ? 
Wow crazy to say it but this is like every winter storm that hits the southeast appears out of nowhere
Some cold nights ahead if this verifies.
whatalife
Moderator
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