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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Oh Crap!!!
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Myfrotho704_ said:
That pattern around D10 on the GEFS has a few tinges of feb 2014, arguably better with a huge ridge above AK and more blocking to direct CP flow further south
Guess what happened a lot that month ? Overrunning.View attachment 69922View attachment 69925
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Very important to remember... we didn’t even have a -NAO in February 2014 for that storm so we literally had to have just the perfect timing to get the storm we did.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The SER is rapidly pushing the 850 line northward.
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Yeah, I think that has to do with the TPV. The western part of the double barrel just sort of pinwheels in an unfavorable location. This is basically the same story we saw with the last setup: we really want ridging or nothing there with a trough/PV piece further east instead of doing... whatever this is.
floop-ecmwf_full-2021020112.500hv.conus.gif
Thankfully the orientation, strength, location of these pieces over Canada are incredibly fluid and hard to predict: these details will change, but we look pretty set to get a big dump of cold air followed by some chances for a big storm.
 
RVD said:
Verbatim, the Euro actually looks better/more wintry than I expected. The snowpack to our north is likely really coming into play, getting rid of the marginal surface temp problems we've had all winter.
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I honestly think in reality, the snowpack will be much more in play than what this model run showed. In this scenario, with a Winter storm that just moved through NC, it would enforce the cold air for the second storm.
 
packfan98 said:
Classic CAD Mixed Bag Slop storm. I WANT PURE POWDER! IT'S BEEN TOO LONG! LET'S NOT WASTE THIS COLD AIR!
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Look how the snow line runs horizontal until it gets to the Carolinas. Thanks, mountains.

All kidding aside, if we assume (big grain, I know) the synoptic details that the Euro is seeing are correct, you know CAD areas will be even colder than shown when we get to it.
 
Rain Cold said:
Look how the snow line runs horizontal until it gets to the Carolinas. Thanks, mountains.

All kidding aside, if we assume (big grain, I know) the synoptic details that the Euro is seeing are correct, you know CAD areas will be even colder than shown when we get to it.
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Good for nothing except for giving us solid 33 degree Cad rains.
 
Another thing to consider as well, nine out of ten times, the big low over the NE will slow down and trend westward with time.
 
Rain Cold said:
Look how the snow line runs horizontal until it gets to the Carolinas. Thanks, mountains.

All kidding aside, if we assume (big grain, I know) the synoptic details that the Euro is seeing are correct, you know CAD areas will be even colder than shown when we get to it.
Click to expand...

I'm not sold we're in -zr full on for this storm.
 
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