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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Jessy89 said:
Obviously Monday is going to be cold. Most likely outcome is rain mid week. That will be horrible after such a strong cold shot. Just got to hope we can get moisture in here before cold moves out.


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If we go through this month and find a way to not produce, we will all be wearing masks
 
This is probably my favorite looking pattern on the GEFS this winter so far. We actually had this look at 500mb showing up in the 10-15 day period prior to the Jan 15-25 time frame but trended away from it once we got close. Good to see this showing up again and this time it's almost inside the medium range

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Webberweather53 said:
This is probably my favorite looking pattern on the GEFS this winter so far. We actually had this look at 500mb showing up in the 10-15 day period prior to the Jan 15-25 time frame but trended away from it once we got close. Good to see this showing up again and this time it's almost inside the medium range

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I don't care for that piece of the TPV sitting over Alaska. That looks to mess with the system that comes across the south and boosts as SER.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I think we just need to relax, every GFS run isn’t just gonna print out a winter storm, let the cold fall in place then we see what happens
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GEFS and EPS at this range will save some sanity. Going over 4 runs a day and freaking over each little shift for a week straight will lead to a straight jacket.
 
I do like idea that the Euro and now the GFS seem to have a storm signal for the midsouth around the 10th time frame. Hopefully we can all score with this one.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I don't care for that piece of the TPV sitting over Alaska. That looks to mess with the system that comes across the south and boosts as SER.
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It doesn't worry me that much to be quite honest, for the moment at least. For one thing, as we saw w/ our little snow event on the 27th-28th they are hard to forecast even inside day 5-7. There's also honestly more than enough cold being injected into the CONUS before that PV lobe migrates to Alaska that it's not gonna immediately be able to flood the entire continent w/ mild, Pacific air in time. The SE ridge is usually present when you have overrunning as much of the precip is driven by warm advection, which translates to mid-level height rises via hydrostatic balance.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I think we just need to relax, every GFS run isn’t just gonna print out a winter storm, let the cold fall in place then we see what happens
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It never fails the model riders treat every run as gospel......right up till the next run....

The setup is classic.....models tend to struggle with over running events outside of 3 or so days.....thats why these tend to trend towards happening not away as the players get over sampled areas and the data gets better.....until then folks need to look at stuff more likely to be correct in this range like large scale features and the big cold....I bet Shaggy last month we would see two measurable snow events between Jan 15th and Feb 15th so I need this........plus the GFS reloads the pattern at the end of the run. Would love Feb to be cold and snowy and then March flip to spring and severe season.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I think we just need to relax, every GFS run isn’t just gonna print out a winter storm, let the cold fall in place then we see what happens
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What is most disappointing for me with the 12Z run is we lost the event on day 5 that was trending better and better. I suppose it's a close call whether that Baja low gets picked up initially as in previous runs or is left behind to tease us in the long-range. So it could change right back at 00z.
 
Shaggy said:
GEFS and EPS at this range will save some sanity. Going over 4 runs a day and freaking over each little shift for a week straight will lead to a straight jacket.
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Couldn’t agree more. Trying to dissect the surface map on the GFS 10 days out is crazy, especially when we just saw an example this weekend how wrong it was from its look 3 days out. If the charts were to be close to accurate at that time with a high over the Great Lakes, low near Panama City and an Arctic airmass in place out ahead with those low dewpoints, I would be shocked if it didn’t produce a major winter storm for most of the Carolinas. Even if the low moves NE from Panama City, there would be a big CAD in place that it would go around or transfer to a coastal in hybrid Miller A/B. Again though no reason to live and die by each op run over a week out.
 
Chazwin said:
Couldn’t agree more. Trying to dissect the surface map on the GFS 10 days out is crazy, especially when we just saw an example this weekend how wrong it was from its look 3 days out. If the charts were to be close to accurate at that time with a high over the Great Lakes, low near Panama City and an Arctic airmass in place out ahead with those low dewpoints, I would be shocked if it didn’t produce a major winter storm for most of the Carolinas. Even if the low moves NE from Panama City, there would be a big CAD in place that it would go around or transfer to a coastal in hybrid Miller A/B. Again though no reason to live and die by each op run over a week out.
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Especially considering how many changes we had even with 3 days lead time with our storm last week.
 
deltadog03 said:
Well, and if we put any snow cover on the ground many will see there coldest temps in some time for sure.
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Personally, I like the pattern setup. The right players are on the field. That's 75% of the battle here. Best chance to score a snow maker in the next 14 days in my opinion.
 
Ukmet trying to give me some snow as early as this weekend and has some very cold temperatures to follow. I have to admit this is most exciting pattern I’ve seen in quite some time.4FF68993-DD82-42D6-9194-6AA3550008DE.gifF920EE19-85FF-4EB9-8BE5-83F71305F0B6.gif
 
deltadog03 said:
There is the "famous" "hockey stick" look that JB used/still does harp on about a good look to the pattern for cold and snow.
I don't know the last time we have seen this look, to be honest.

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I don’t think I’ve ever seen this look, at least not in the mid-range. Good grief a strong -NAO and a +PNA with the PV dropping in. Wow.
 
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