Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

[Brick Tamland]

Didnt you just get a storm like 4 days ago

And still under the average snowfall. Still only had one storm with a constant -NAO. And I am not just talking about me, but the pattern overall and what it has produced. Just hope the pattern we get will produce as well as it historically has in the past.

 

[Broken024]

Yes he always jackpots and then chastises others for being realistic.

We know that models usually overdo snow output. Once big high pressures start showing up, more of us will have a better shot and may the models will do a better job with their snowfall progs.

Gfs says hi

 

[Chazwin]

Wow so we lost a warm day. How disappointing . If we drop a trough in the Midwest deep as advertised there will be a warm day. Wouldn’t be surprised if we trended back to it today.

If I had to guess, I would think Friday has a decent chance to get into the 60s out ahead of the trough, but you can already see the trough is pushing east so it would be very short lived.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Good thing there’s not a deep shortwave on the base of that trough for bigger advection of moisture/theta E haha, otherwise we’d be trying again with what happened last year around this time

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol this looks like a hour 180 difference

 

[Webberweather53]

?

 

[Chazwin]

So then times must really suck if we don't get a good winter storm in the next couple of weeks. Guess we'll really see if these patterns produce now like they used to.

You got keep in mind that just because a good pattern sets up, it doesn’t guarantee a winter storm. There is still timing and luck involved. There have many times over the years that we had good patterns that just simply didn’t produce. With that said, it would be very surprising during this long of a stretch of a -NAO for the Carolinas and Northern GA to score at least one widespread winter storm outside the mountains and foothills

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Get ready to make another map @Webberweather53 ?

 

[Brick Tamland]

Yup, looks like the week of the 7th is our next shot.

 

[Webberweather53]

Pants obliterated

 

[Brick Tamland]

You got keep in mind that just because a good pattern sets up, it doesn’t guarantee a winter storm. There is still timing and luck involved. There have many times over the years that we had good patterns that just simply didn’t produce. With that said, it would be very surprising during this long of a stretch of a -NAO for the Carolinas and Northern GA to score at least one widespread winter storm outside the mountains and foothills

Oh, I know. I just think when we get good patterns the last 20 years or so that they don't produce good storms as often as those same patterns did before then.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Brick Tamland]

Pants obliterated

View attachment 69533

The GFS seems to be doing well this winter on picking up on the storm threats first.

 

[BufordWX]

Cold

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

ColdView attachment 69537

I'm guessing this is assuming a lot of snowcover ?

 

[Broken024]

Pants obliterated

View attachment 69533

Think cmc has similar look incoming

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Since tomorrow is the first day of flaming February. I must say this is the most excited about February than I've been in a long time! Looks like we could have some true arctic air!

 

[Webberweather53]

ColdView attachment 69537View attachment 69538

If we get a cold shot like that an actually have some snow on the ground I could certainly buy single digits

 

[Chazwin]

Oh, I know. I just think when we get good patterns the last 20 years or so that they don't produce good storms as often as those same patterns did before then.

I don’t know about that. Obviously I’m in the CLT area so sometimes what works for us doesn’t work for Raleigh, but we’ve experienced some good storms in the last 20 years... January 2003, February 2004, March 2009, January 2011, February 2014, January 2018. I didn’t even include the storms that gave very little to the southeast part of CLT area but put much bigger amounts 15-20 miles to the north and west.

 

[BufordWX]