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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

The GFS looking good....looks like it was reloaded and firing a even bigger cold blast towards the end of the run.....that hit next Monday followed by some serious cold is the kind of winter weather I love, I hate crap like the last one with marginal temps and snow melting.....I like my snow to stick around and I am still waiting for the elusive snow on top of snow events like they had in March 60.....

This is my jam right here....

gfs_asnow_seus_25.png
gfs_T2m_seus_29.png
 
Downeastnc said:
The GFS looking good....looks like it was reloaded and firing a even bigger cold blast towards the end of the run.....that hit next Monday followed by some serious cold is the kind of winter weather I love, I hate crap like the last one with marginal temps and snow melting.....I like my snow to stick around and I am still waiting for the elusive snow on top of snow events like they had in March 60.....

This is my jam right here....

View attachment 69797
View attachment 69796
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A couple more south trends and the storm will be in Georgia
 
Downeastnc said:
The GFS looking good....looks like it was reloaded and firing a even bigger cold blast towards the end of the run.....that hit next Monday followed by some serious cold is the kind of winter weather I love, I hate crap like the last one with marginal temps and snow melting.....I like my snow to stick around and I am still waiting for the elusive snow on top of snow events like they had in March 60.....

This is my jam right here....

View attachment 69797
View attachment 69796
Click to expand...

Yeah if we got some good snow like that this weekend in/around us followed by a massive cold shot immediately thereafter, widespread single digit lows would be a very good bet in much of central-eastern NC.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah December 2017 except further east would be ?
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Maybe it would be cold enough to hit that big city just across the border so we wouldn’t have to hear more whining. So that is a win/win for all of us. And we need it to drop 6”+ in Colombus, GA.
 
The differences are quite interesting, for example the 06z ICON let’s go of the piece and keeps it in the pacific, this would maybe be good for a setup with the big ol TPV towards D7-10 or so, meanwhile the GFS has enough separation to hold it back/allow N/S trough to go in front, but also just not get flung out into the pacific 6BBCF598-8104-44CE-B425-221C543D3A75.png56EB5F79-FBE7-4725-A563-3E26A6849A49.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The differences are quite interesting, for example the 06z ICON let’s go of the piece and keeps it in the pacific, this would maybe be good for a setup with the big ol TPV towards D7-10 or so, meanwhile the GFS has enough separation to hold it back/allow N/S trough to go in front, but also just not get flung out into the pacific View attachment 69799View attachment 69800
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I'll take the gfs at this range!
 
FallsLake said:
Lol..It would be tough to get that to verify. Most other models show a lot colder look during the first 1/3 of the month. Then even the CFS shows cold outbreaks later in the month.
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It's for March. But yeah, I think it will not look like this by the end of the month.
 
FallsLake said:
Lol..It would be tough to get that to verify. Most other models show a lot colder look during the first 1/3 of the month. Then even the CFS shows cold outbreaks later in the month.
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That's for March, no? Hopefully, by then, we'll all be sick and tired of snow and frigid cold all during February. NOT LMAO.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah if we got some good snow like that this weekend in/around us followed by a massive cold shot immediately thereafter, widespread single digit lows would be a very good bet in much of central-eastern NC.
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Jan 2018 still is the king of snow followed by epic cold......easily the coldest 4-5 day period on record around here, at least in my lifetime.....need some more of that.....also daytime snow please.
 
This cold blast has trended very far east. Now it looks like the western parts of the south miss out. It went from coming down over Minnesota to now over the UP region of Michigan. That's weird, but the western parts of the south are more due for cold than any other region. Couple more shifts like that and it will look like last weeks PV press where only the northeast got cold. The angle it comes in as rather unusual.
 
Strongest signal this winter for central Alabama. We’ve had some nice eps runs this winter, but this is the first time that both the GEFS and EPS both are similar with the sameish look. Hope we can keep it going. Really not that far off either!
Below is the 00z EPS and 06z GFS.
952FEDA8-28BB-44F4-8397-73F7C3D86613.pngF2DE73ED-DAA3-4FF5-9CF0-94D1476E344C.png
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
I think the central Midlands of SC could possibly finally get some kind of wintry threat.
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Please don't jinx us man. We do not speak of it or show it any attention or it'll disappear. Just go on, live your daily life, and pretend like nothing is happening.
 
Well, February 1. January for CLT area was a big disappointment considering the -NAO, but there just wasn't any real cold. Glad to come back after a break and see a nice cold shot coming in next week. Hope it materializes, and hope it hangs on. I'm kinda in the camp of worrying the cold shot doesn't last and retreats out west with the setup. But at least from day 7 to 14 we'll be in the game, more so IMO than we were in January.
 
As much as I would like an overrunning setup, getting the Baja low to be stuck probably won't be the worst thing in the world. As we get the monster TPV piece to retrograde towards SE Canada, we can get a synoptic look very similar to March 1927 (For real this time). The low just adds to precip if the Euro is anything to go by.
ecmwf-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-2872000.pngecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2872000.pngecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_barbs-2872000.png
 
Hemispheric z500a composite animation of some of the biggest, most widespread overrunning events in the SE US over the last 50 years during the 7 days leading up to the event.

Some key features to note here are the big west-based -NAO in the 5-7 days leading to the overrunning gives way to a giant Lakes/SE Canada vortex a few days in advance of the big storm & is coupled to some high-latitude N Pacific blocking (-WPO/-EPO) which injects legit Arctic air into the pattern. As the overrunning event unfolds, a longwave trough axis then swings thru the south-central Plains & MS valley while our big Lakes/SE Canada vortex migrates towards Atlantic Canada, providing favorable large-scale cold & moisture advection to produce snow in the southern US while also suppressing the wave to the south.

This is the kind of evolution we want to see & trend to at some pt in the coming few weeks to produce a big, board-wide winter storm.

Large, Widespread SE US overrunning events 1970-2020.gif
 
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