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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Webberweather53 said:
The problem we run into w/ a stronger upstream ridge is that the downstream trough, while it digs more to the south which is good, it gets super amped, strengthens the warm advection out ahead of it. Oth, of course gives us a bigger storm to work w/ in general. Really need the vort track to be down near I-20
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And the only way to do that is pray it starts off futher south back in the 4 corners or the tpv vort be futher south around hour 80 -100. Any other way to get it down to i 20?
 
NCSNOW said:
And the only way to do that is pray it starts off futher south back in the 4 corners or the tpv vort be futher south around hour 80 -100. Any other way to get it down to i 20?
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More confluence in the NE US & SE Canada to squash the SE US ridge. Strengthening the upstream ridge over the Rockies turns this into a bigger storm and increases the boom/bust potential. We keep strengthening that ridge the more this wave digs and amplifies it would actually turn better for us if it kept trending that way a few more runs but gotta get the track right
 
We have 2 options to score from with that energy in Canada and or course it has to be in the one spot where it royally screws everyone. No way our luck for winter weather has gotten this bad
 
Cmc improved from previous runs, still not there but a step in the right direction. GFS was an interesting run as was the ICON. Still some time left for models to shift better or worse. Tomorrow IMO is the day we should see things begin to shift and converge on a solution, especially 00z tomorrow night.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol this has been the winter of having the pattern to produce but Energy not aligning where we want it
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I feel like by the end of this winter, we'll be calling it "The winter that almost was". Small things here and there screws us from getting snowstorms. Best winter pattern in years, but just bad luck and poor timing.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Source region roast
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Been an average temp winter here. Not bad really. As much as that big Canadian ridge has helped keep those lower heights on top of us for much of this winter to this point, it hasn’t helped our cause. We need anomalous cold. Source region must cooperate and it hasn’t.
 
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